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Post by missouriboy on May 27, 2019 4:51:22 GMT
Optimistic aren't you?
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Post by nautonnier on May 27, 2019 7:12:45 GMT
It is interesting that it is another view of the same cycles that Astromet has been forecasting. So one step along from the causal factor but still identifying the same cycles.
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Post by acidohm on May 27, 2019 10:41:37 GMT
The link is meridionality, mixing of high and low latitude air, with a dose of northern blocking.
All of the above is associated with low solar, all of the above is incrementally increasing.
QBO is turning easterly, coupled with a potentially negative enso. Whereas last winter these forces were against cold patterns, this winter or next they could be for.
Atlantic also looking like a tripole may be evident. I have no idea why! However a warm/cold/warm band of sst in N Atlantic in may/june does preclude cooler winters in Europe.....
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Post by Ratty on May 27, 2019 11:49:36 GMT
The link is meridionality, mixing of high and low latitude air, with a dose of northern blocking. All of the above is associated with low solar, all of the above is incrementally increasing. QBO is turning easterly, coupled with a potentially negative enso. Whereas last winter these forces were against cold patterns, this winter or next they could be for. Atlantic also looking like a tripole may be evident. I have no idea why! However a warm/cold/warm band of sst in N Atlantic in may/june does preclude cooler winters in Europe..... www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16742834.2019.1588064?scroll=top&needAccess=trueInteresting paper demonstrating a small part of the complexities of weather/climate and the difficulties in trying to piece it all together. IPCC 2001: "The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible." Last sentence, the obligatory funding request/suggestion: This impact of the QBO should be investigated in future studies.
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Post by missouriboy on May 27, 2019 14:30:04 GMT
Love the surname of the first author ... Liying SUN.
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 15, 2019 14:45:56 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Aug 18, 2019 5:16:41 GMT
Appreciate the comment, Code. It's nice as long as you don't mind high energy costs and long, dry hot periods followed by long, dry hot periods.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 18, 2019 5:25:06 GMT
And long periods of high electricity Bill's when you have the largest land based uranium deposits in the world.
Also huge fields of NH4 that you sell to China but are forbidden to use at home.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 18, 2019 5:29:49 GMT
And long periods of high electricity Bill's when you have the largest land based uranium deposits in the world. Also huge fields of NH4 that you sell to China but are forbidden to use at home. CH 4 perhaps?
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 18, 2019 6:59:26 GMT
Oooops. Yes, CH4!!
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Post by Ratty on Aug 18, 2019 7:15:44 GMT
Sleep deprivation.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 24, 2019 15:07:45 GMT
OK ACID! Where do we stand on the N. American - Central England Winter Look Alike Contest? Progressing back an forth from 1) warm England - Cold NAM to 2) opposite to 3) shared apocalypse! (2009-10) Haven't updated this chart for the 2018-19 winter yet, but note the 2007-11 sequence. Is Astro's terrible, awful 2021-22 winter the equivalent of a worse version of 2009-10? Place your bets Gentlemen.
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 24, 2019 20:06:17 GMT
For whatever reason the Jet over the last few years seems to be more meridonal in nature with larger than normal "loops". Seems the entire NH has a 50/50 chance of being on the cold side. This summer Western Europe was baking and Eastern Europe/Russia did not have much of a summer. We will see where the blocking sets up this year...
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Post by acidohm on Aug 24, 2019 20:30:50 GMT
For whatever reason the Jet over the last few years seems to be more meridonal in nature with larger than normal "loops". Seems the entire NH has a 50/50 chance of being on the cold side. This summer Western Europe was baking and Eastern Europe/Russia did not have much of a summer. We will see where the blocking sets up this year... Wobbly jet, HLB, are signatures of low solar Glenn.
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Post by nonentropic on Aug 25, 2019 4:14:43 GMT
southern Hemi also.
look at Australia and NZ snow or warm.
It must transport a lot of energy to the exits at the poles, maybe a good thing ultimately and maybe also a mechanism that does not depend on TSI but on the way the climate functions, ah forgot all this is fully settled, silly old me.
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