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Post by acidohm on Sept 5, 2019 9:28:44 GMT
Arctic amplification obviously What the F is that? Looks like the Wall from Game of Thrones Maybe we all need to head up there with obsidian blades??? 😱😱😱
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 8, 2019 3:10:11 GMT
Blind luck... As I have said many times I am extremely skeptical of anyones ability to accurately forecast the weather outside of 7 days. NOAA, The Farmers Almanac, Joe Bastardi... There are too many variables that are poorly understood. Which is one of the reasons I find Climate Models laughable. With that being said I think there are clues in nature (weatherlore) that may give insight to seasonable weather. There are cycles that repeat and there is pretty much chaos when it comes to long range forecasting. Statistically, I'd be interested in how often the birds, fish and furry mammals have been right. Excluding ground hogs, who don't know anything. 75% of the time the birds, fish and mammals outperform the less than 10% accuracy rate claimed by long term forecasters. The other half of the time they are wrong as well... And vise versa
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 8, 2019 4:32:38 GMT
Statistically, I'd be interested in how often the birds, fish and furry mammals have been right. Excluding ground hogs, who don't know anything. 75% of the time the birds, fish and mammals outperform the less than 10% accuracy rate claimed by long term forecasters. The other half of the time they are wrong as well... And vise versa They ONLY claim 10%? They are getting modest in my old age?
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Post by acidohm on Sept 9, 2019 10:31:13 GMT
Before someone reads/posts this UCL based article about 'beast from the east' "forecast".....don't do either....
No-one knows, its beyond scientific capability to do such a thing at this timescale.
Even 5 days prior with good agreement in the models it can evaporate from reality.
Essentially article is total nonsense 👍
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 9, 2019 13:40:18 GMT
"Beast From The East" has become the European version of the "Polar Vortex". It helps if we give arctic outbreaks names that vilify them and makes them sound more ominous. It seems weather headlines get more clicks on the computer screen if there is a catchy scary name attached to them. The Weather Channel even names winter storms now like we do Hurricanes. As for our ability to forecast these "Polar Vortices" and run away "Beast's from the East" more than seven days in advance with much accuracy? I am extremely skeptical. With that being said "Researchers" have forecast the dreaded "Beast From The East" to make a visit in January and February 2020 to the British Isles. Time will tell but if you watch the video from the link provided it comes with scary sounding music and a general creepy overtone. Genetically I think we are wired to be more afraid of cold winters than we are hot summers. Probably because cold weather is about 20 times more deadly than hot weather. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-forecast-beast-from-the-east-coldest-winter-latest-a9096601.htmlwww.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/05/20/cold-weather-deaths/27657269/
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Post by acidohm on Sept 9, 2019 15:53:21 GMT
"Beast From The East" has become the European version of the "Polar Vortex". It helps if we give arctic outbreaks names that vilify them and makes them sound more ominous. It seems weather headlines get more clicks on the computer screen if there is a catchy scary name attached to them. The Weather Channel even names winter storms now like we do Hurricanes. As for our ability to forecast these "Polar Vortices" and run away "Beast's from the East" more than seven days in advance with much accuracy? I am extremely skeptical. With that being said "Researchers" have forecast the dreaded "Beast From The East" to make a visit in January and February 2020 to the British Isles. Time will tell but if you watch the video from the link provided it comes with scary sounding music and a general creepy overtone. Genetically I think we are wired to be more afraid of cold winters than we are hot summers. Probably because cold weather is about 20 times more deadly than hot weather. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-forecast-beast-from-the-east-coldest-winter-latest-a9096601.htmlwww.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/05/20/cold-weather-deaths/27657269/BFTE has been used in the meteorological community foe years, but it had meaning....then the media got hold of it 🙄 Certainly to proclaim a coming winter as to be worst for x amount of years is nonsense....there's simply no way of knowing... I think 2010 which was our coldest for a good while was due to long fetch northerlies, no bfte was needed....
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Post by acidohm on Sept 13, 2019 20:58:52 GMT
Interesting chat about correlation with SH SSW and NH blocking.
Perhaps un-researched?
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 13, 2019 21:07:23 GMT
Small sample size is always tough.
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Post by acidohm on Sept 13, 2019 22:14:59 GMT
Small sample size is always tough. Yes.....but its about to go up 50%.... Against is the recent history of blocking and all the usual forcings. Alot of noise.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 13, 2019 23:39:06 GMT
Small sample size is always tough. Yes.....but its about to go up 50%.... Against is the recent history of blocking and all the usual forcings. Alot of noise. But just to be safe, do you have your winter tires at hand?
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Post by acidohm on Sept 14, 2019 6:41:18 GMT
Yes.....but its about to go up 50%.... Against is the recent history of blocking and all the usual forcings. Alot of noise. But just to be safe, do you have your winter tires at hand? Yes, but no snow plough 🤔
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Post by Ratty on Sept 14, 2019 7:27:49 GMT
But just to be safe, do you have your winter tires at hand? Yes, but no snow plough 🤔 I thought that this was your truck:
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Post by Ratty on Sept 17, 2019 0:59:24 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Sept 20, 2019 22:05:27 GMT
Stunning long fetch northerly to UK in 9 days on GFS.
This is waaaay to far out for certainty, BUT, perhaps an insight into what may in coming weeks.
If this was reality, winds would approach UK fed from the north pole effectively. In November and on, we'd have ice days, tho not much snow without some sort if moisture pumped in.....
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 20, 2019 23:36:31 GMT
So you are a prelude to my Thanksgiving blizzard?
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