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Post by sigurdur on Aug 17, 2020 21:28:05 GMT
Morning all... Just signed on to check in, and ask if anyone (cough Sig) has heard anything about increased Chinese commodity purchases. I have been expecting to hear about large increases, and while I have heard about a few large corn buys, I'm not seeing the magnitude I have been expecting, are the reports overblown… Is the CCP sticking it’s head in the sand… Are they heading for a famine? 1. Flooding: There are rumblings that Chinees grain harvests will be down more than 30% this summer from flooding alone. 2. Corruption, Communism: At least some of their strategic grain storage was destroyed by mold prior to the rainy season. 3. Locusts: Minimal effects, but that thing with straw and camel’s backs. 4. Fall armyworm: When it rains… 5. African Swine Flu Ongoing?: Reports of swine flu have tricked to a stop, with the last one I can find in early June. Regardless: Pork production is down more then 40% this year as a result of the last two years impact of the virus. (It takes time to rebuild herds.) And pork prices are near record highs. 6. Avian Flu: This one I don’t know about, early in the year there were reports of at least two outbreaks of Avian Flu, which would devastate local chicken production, but there has been nothing but silence on the subject for months. Which is a little… Weird. If the outbreaks had been contained, wouldn’t there be an announcement? (Same with swine flu) Chinese purchases of soybeans have been record setting. You need to add current marketing year to next marketing year. apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/summfax.htm
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 18, 2020 0:04:54 GMT
We should add a "get even" tariff to all outbound to China ... just because we could.
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Post by gridley on Aug 18, 2020 12:28:07 GMT
It may even be that they prefer their people to starve rather than make supersized grain, pork and soybean orders even if they need them to avoid losing face. A famine can be a useful thing to a totalitarian regime - with a little bit of care and a little bit of luck, you can control who starves. This both eliminates present trouble makers and serves as a warning to future ones.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 18, 2020 21:51:41 GMT
It may even be that they prefer their people to starve rather than make supersized grain, pork and soybean orders even if they need them to avoid losing face. A famine can be a useful thing to a totalitarian regime - with a little bit of care and a little bit of luck, you can control who starves. This both eliminates present trouble makers and serves as a warning to future ones. In today's world, a famine is not desirable for a totalitarian regime. Too many people with cell phones. All they have to do is look at American Walmart pictures. Poor FAT people. A picture is worth a 1,000 protests.
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Post by nonentropic on Aug 19, 2020 2:44:16 GMT
I think obesity is like a food store. My brother is a Doc and informs me that if people eat nothing for 30 days they will be just fine, but need water.
Sig when you negotiate those Walmart stores the big rigs that move around could go for a year with little more than a bit of water.
Survival plan really. Don't need to remove masks at all.
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Post by gridley on Aug 19, 2020 11:45:29 GMT
A famine can be a useful thing to a totalitarian regime - with a little bit of care and a little bit of luck, you can control who starves. This both eliminates present trouble makers and serves as a warning to future ones. In today's world, a famine is not desirable for a totalitarian regime. Too many people with cell phones. All they have to do is look at American Walmart pictures. Poor FAT people. A picture is worth a 1,000 protests. You're assuming the regime in question hasn't figured out how to do modern censorship. The current regime in China certainly isn't perfect at that, but overall they do a pretty good job.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Aug 19, 2020 13:48:07 GMT
Flood number 5 on the Yellow river. Largest in a hundred years. Twice the flow of previous flood. -------------- Looks like an early winter for areas of Gannon Prefecture of Gensoo Province in Northern China. First snowfall of the season, 25 days earlier then average. There are reports that livestock is not tolerating the sudden temperature drop well.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 26, 2020 16:26:34 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 26, 2020 17:09:12 GMT
The USA has lots of wheat.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 26, 2020 18:22:58 GMT
A spokesperson for the Met Office explained: "UK climate projections show a trend towards hotter and drier summers and warmer, wetter winters."
Anyone believe this? Good time for a US/UK trade deal.
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Post by nonentropic on Aug 26, 2020 19:14:32 GMT
no need for a trade deal. I have money and have hunger you have food and to much. QED
Cave men understood the "gains from trade theorem" its the "rent seeking ruling class" that complicates the concept of "win win".
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 26, 2020 23:11:41 GMT
Good point. Perhaps the parlimentarians (rent seeking ruling class) will forego the tariffs.
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 10, 2020 1:20:51 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 10, 2020 12:28:07 GMT
It may even be that they prefer their people to starve rather than make supersized grain, pork and soybean orders even if they need them to avoid losing face. A famine can be a useful thing to a totalitarian regime - with a little bit of care and a little bit of luck, you can control who starves. This both eliminates present trouble makers and serves as a warning to future ones. Personally I think the Chinese Government fears a famine above all. History is full of examples of rebellions brought on by hunger. Now that the Chinese people have had a taste of the free market and a large increase of protein in their diet it would be hard for them to go back. Hence their huge purchases and investment in Africa to secure food stability.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 10, 2020 16:35:29 GMT
Perhaps they are factoring in a Trump win. Preloading commodities isn't a bad thing to do if they are currently considered cheap and you will have to purchase them anyway in future. But it is a good defense against a USA that suddenly decides not to sell. A O'Biden USA will give away anything and everything back that Trump won, (you've met my son have you?). But China doesn't see that happening so buy like a prepper.
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