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Post by nautonnier on Jul 28, 2020 15:27:39 GMT
For the statisticians... Interesting map. Shouldn't the Florida Keys be colored red since they are part of Monroe County? I would have thought so - perhaps it is a graphical pixelation problem. I will see if I can find the source maps.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 28, 2020 18:11:40 GMT
About that fish storm writing
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 29, 2020 10:57:40 GMT
Starting to look like a wet weekend here
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Post by Ratty on Jul 29, 2020 12:45:41 GMT
Starting to look like a wet weekend here Would it wash away some of these?
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jul 29, 2020 14:53:32 GMT
"Starting to look like a wet weekend here." Probably, Mr. Naut. But there's hope. The latest GFS run has this thing as a diffuse smattering of T-Storms by Sunday afternoon. Looks like the NHS folks are weighting the ECWMF pretty heavily. It has it as a Tropical Storm up the west coast of Florida, re-curving east across the peninsula on Monday. As evidenced by Mr. Glenn's map, that's a pretty rare path in reality, although I see a lot of models predict it. Given the wide variation of the models, I'd say too early to tell!
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 29, 2020 15:48:04 GMT
"Starting to look like a wet weekend here." Probably, Mr. Naut. But there's hope. The latest GFS run has this thing as a diffuse smattering of T-Storms by Sunday afternoon. Looks like the NHS folks are weighting the ECWMF pretty heavily. It has it as a Tropical Storm up the west coast of Florida, re-curving east across the peninsula on Monday. As evidenced by Mr. Glenn's map, that's a pretty rare path in reality, although I see a lot of models predict it. Given the wide variation of the models, I'd say too early to tell! I agree with the path, I suspect it will start edging East at each successive forecast. However, that also means that its North East quadrant will be back over the warm sea and the storm may hold together rather than break up over land. With luck it will home onto Cape Hatteras and be out to see passing here
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 29, 2020 17:49:02 GMT
Decided to press our luck and drive to Central/SW Florida for a beach vacation, with arrival on August 7th - 4 days after current system and hopefully a week or so before the next. Theoretically the beaches are open AND we won't get blown OR washed away. Any odds from the odds makers? Hell every other plan has failed so far this year.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 29, 2020 19:39:26 GMT
Decided to press our luck and drive to Central/SW Florida for a beach vacation, with arrival on August 7th - 4 days after current system and hopefully a week or so before the next. Theoretically the beaches are open AND we won't get blown OR washed away. Any odds from the odds makers? Hell every other plan has failed so far this year. I am the other end of the I-4 from there. Our beaches are open and apart from a very brief period where they were trying to dissuade tourists 'flocking' to the beach here on Memorial Day, they have been open throughout. If you go to floridahealthcovid19.gov/You can then choose a 'county by county' dashboard and get information for the county you are staying in. The Governor Ron DeSantis has delegated the rule making as low as he can so each county may have different rules on mask wearing and beaches and so on. If you search on: Rules COVID-19 <county name> Florida You should get the current rules where you are going.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 29, 2020 19:40:26 GMT
It will follow Matthew's track more beach erosion
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 29, 2020 20:20:38 GMT
Decided to press our luck and drive to Central/SW Florida for a beach vacation, with arrival on August 7th - 4 days after current system and hopefully a week or so before the next. Theoretically the beaches are open AND we won't get blown OR washed away. Any odds from the odds makers? Hell every other plan has failed so far this year. I am the other end of the I-4 from there. Our beaches are open and apart from a very brief period where they were trying to dissuade tourists 'flocking' to the beach here on Memorial Day, they have been open throughout. If you go to floridahealthcovid19.gov/You can then choose a 'county by county' dashboard and get information for the county you are staying in. The Governor Ron DeSantis has delegated the rule making as low as he can so each county may have different rules on mask wearing and beaches and so on. If you search on: Rules COVID-19 <county name> Florida You should get the current rules where you are going. Thanks Naut. That helps a lot.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 30, 2020 6:09:46 GMT
Decided to press our luck and drive to Central/SW Florida for a beach vacation, with arrival on August 7th - 4 days after current system and hopefully a week or so before the next. Theoretically the beaches are open AND we won't get blown OR washed away. Any odds from the odds makers? Hell every other plan has failed so far this year. Planning a holiday in Florida during the hurricane season? Take an umbrella ....
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 30, 2020 6:45:45 GMT
Decided to press our luck and drive to Central/SW Florida for a beach vacation, with arrival on August 7th - 4 days after current system and hopefully a week or so before the next. Theoretically the beaches are open AND we won't get blown OR washed away. Any odds from the odds makers? Hell every other plan has failed so far this year. Planning a holiday in Florida during the hurricane season? Take an umbrella .... Thanks. I'll take a broom too, and work on my Nancy Pelosi impression. I just need to get out of my Covid bunker and my own back yard, where the deer are waiting for me to go to bed so they can trash my garden. I'm having a venison sale next week.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 30, 2020 8:32:37 GMT
Decided to press our luck and drive to Central/SW Florida for a beach vacation, with arrival on August 7th - 4 days after current system and hopefully a week or so before the next. Theoretically the beaches are open AND we won't get blown OR washed away. Any odds from the odds makers? Hell every other plan has failed so far this year. Planning a holiday in Florida during the hurricane season? Take an umbrella .... Umbrella in a hurricane? You would be doing a 'Mary Poppins' impression....
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 30, 2020 8:36:57 GMT
The aiming at Hatteras begins... Dependent on which model ensemble you want to use.....
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 30, 2020 9:10:30 GMT
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