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Post by sigurdur on Sept 22, 2020 1:52:33 GMT
When is that supposed to happen? We plan on being in Alabama mid November thru Mid March. We don't want snow.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 22, 2020 3:38:00 GMT
Would this be a massive low pressure gradient corridor from the arctic to the Tropic of Cancer? A very negative Fall NAO? If this setup "sticks"in place, it could be a very uncomfortable winter for Western Europe. And where is the northward flowing corridor? Last couple of years, especially after last summers extended -NAO, come autumn all bets are off concerning trends. I've learnt through disappointment.... Once the polar jet kicks in, its behaviour will push the patterns. I think spring and autumn get quite high pressure affected as polar jet is weak and the high pressure can dominate, once the polar (night-time) jet fire's up, it becomes difficult for a high pressure to block the onslaught of depressions. Of course, if a high pressure DOES block the westerlies....then it gets interesting! One would assume we're getting to the point in the solar cycle where this becomes more likely. In the end it may not matter how the winters turn out. Marginally colder or seriously colder on average may not be the important part. What happens in the shoulder seasons and growing season are the critical factor from 50N southward. Important climate change will happen there. If the dominant flow becomes more northerly crops will likely suffer. On the other hand, the Med and N Africa may do better with a cooler, wetter climate. Mother Nature is a b_tch. She giveth and she taketh away.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 22, 2020 11:19:02 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 25, 2020 2:51:41 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Sept 25, 2020 12:45:57 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Oct 9, 2020 20:38:35 GMT
This guy is a young Irish lad who does good analysis and has impressive historical data knowledge. He's started a met course, he may go far. Solar minimum against cet.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 10, 2020 2:30:31 GMT
He will miss Astro's Gawd-awful, terrible, devastating winter of 2021-22. The new increments for his table will be ...
-1yr = 2018-19 Min. = 2019-20 +1 = 2020-21
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 10, 2020 5:22:55 GMT
Hit those runs Code. Bring back some videos for "the boys". Don't forget your mask for the snow bunnies.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 10, 2020 20:27:05 GMT
Gfs is a mass of blocking for N Europe right now. Maybe bit early, but indications are for a weak tropospheric polar vortex for at least early winter.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 10, 2020 22:06:40 GMT
Gfs is a mass of blocking for N Europe right now. Maybe bit early, but indications are for a weak tropospheric polar vortex for at least early winter. Your weather will end up in Timbuktu.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 11, 2020 5:52:36 GMT
Gfs is a mass of blocking for N Europe right now. Maybe bit early, but indications are for a weak tropospheric polar vortex for at least early winter. Your weather will end up in Timbuktu. I see what your saying, maybe in the summer pattern months but winter patterns can be a bit different. Next Sunday, the polar cell forecast to split by blocking that extends from N Atlantic. The usual Ferrel cell is absent over N Europe as is the Jet Stream. We're left with long fetch winds coming from arctic regions. So the depressions that can get pushed south in summer are basically absent, those that appear are weak and if generate moisture can produce snow in November. These patterns are all a bit early really, in December wed be discussing if a forecast like this could rival 2010 but the arctic air still isn't that cold. Of course, seeing these patterns now doesn't mean we'll see them in December...
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Post by acidohm on Oct 11, 2020 6:12:17 GMT
N Atlantic sst have little to with the temp over N Europe in situations like the above as the weather is no longer driven from there.
If Atlantic sst dropped by 10°c then clearly usual weather patterns would be colder, however sst patterns also help drive synoptics and may increase the chances of blocking patterns.
Which leads to thoughts on what do synoptics look like in ice age conditions? I'm not suggesting these as a possibility now, more wondering how our current Hadley/Ferrel/Polar cell model would compare.
I doubt there would be a ferrel cell.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 11, 2020 11:54:57 GMT
N Atlantic sst have little to with the temp over N Europe in situations like the above as the weather is no longer driven from there. If Atlantic sst dropped by 10°c then clearly usual weather patterns would be colder, however sst patterns also help drive synoptics and may increase the chances of blocking patterns. Which leads to thoughts on what do synoptics look like in ice age conditions? I'm not suggesting these as a possibility now, more wondering how our current Hadley/Ferrel/Polar cell model would compare. I doubt there would be a ferrel cell. There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of clear Ferrel cell space in the current air flows
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 11, 2020 14:10:39 GMT
N Atlantic sst have little to with the temp over N Europe in situations like the above as the weather is no longer driven from there. If Atlantic sst dropped by 10°c then clearly usual weather patterns would be colder, however sst patterns also help drive synoptics and may increase the chances of blocking patterns. Which leads to thoughts on what do synoptics look like in ice age conditions? I'm not suggesting these as a possibility now, more wondering how our current Hadley/Ferrel/Polar cell model would compare. I doubt there would be a ferrel cell. The ambient temperature of the Big Hot Tub sets the general thermal properties of Northwest Europe's oceanic margins. While persistent easterly winds in winter may make y'all feel like Siberia, without the Big Hot Tub y'all would be Siberia. Count your blessings.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 11, 2020 18:39:19 GMT
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