July global temps

[dopeydog]

Haven't seen any numbers yet, but no doubt July will be warm.

No doubt Jim and GISS will argue that you could boil an egg in the tropics last month but that is their thing.

My guess is that UAH will come out .5 or higher than average.

[dopeydog]

From our friends that don't know what month they are in I read the following from the June Temperature thread.

July global temps are UAH .41, RSS .394.

[glc]

It's very quiet on this thread - not a bit like the June thread.

[dopeydog]

That's because July just ended.

MEI analysis is in.

www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/

Klaus makes a point that this is the first transition from a La Nina to El Nino during a calendar year in 30 years.

[dopeydog]

And for the record July is only a little more than half the uah record temp in 1998.

In 1998 Feb and Apr were .76 and July was .52.

[duwayne]

I was expecting El Nino driven UAH anomalies of 0.410 and higher, but not in July. With a 3 month lag following El Nino something like 0.24C would have seemed more in order for July with 0.5C and possibly even 0.6C anomalies in the Fall and Winter depending upon the progression of El Nino. I've seen a tendency for the "unders and overs" to average out so this could mean the Fall and/or Winter numbers might be a little lower than otherwise expected.

[glc]

I was expecting El Nino driven UAH anomalies of 0.410 and higher, but not in July. With a 3 month lag following El Nino something like 0.24C would have seemed more in order for July with 0.5C and possibly even 0.6C anomalies in the Fall and Winter depending upon the progression of El Nino

You're right. I don't think this spike is solely ENSO driven. The antarctic region has been particularly warm over the past few weeks. That will probably fade in time, but if El Nino continues to develop we will see higher - possibly much higher anomalies.

[glc]

And for the record July is only a little more than half the uah record temp in 1998.

In 1998 Feb and Apr were .76 and July was .52.

Yes, but the in 1998 El Nino had been present for several months, this one hads barely got going. In July 1997 the UAH anomaly was only ~0.1. If we get anything even close to the 1997/98 El Nino you are going to see a record warm year in 2010.

[dopeydog]

Oh ya, the antartic has been warm all right. 24 hrs ago Vostok was a balmy -109 F.

And this El Nino isn't the 1998 El Nino. I knew that El Nino and it was hot!

This one may not even make an official ONI El Nino.

[jtom]

Well then let's hope for a 97/98 type El Nino.

In the left corner, we have anthropogenic CO2 emissions blamed for global warming, and hopefully El Nino and the higher temps it brings.

In the right corner, are
A dearth of sunspots with its sidekick, cooler temps.
A below average summer for most of the US, usually followed by colder US winter temps.
And a late starting Atlantic tropical storm season with its own correlation to colder subsequent winters in the US.

All the players but El Nino have already shown up for the fight.

What's it gonna be? Place your bets and spin the wheel.

[glc]

Oh ya, the antartic has been warm all right. 24 hrs ago Vostok was a balmy -109 F.

We are talking relatively warm here. There have been warm anomalies over the antarctic region

And this El Nino isn't the 1998 El Nino. I knew that El Nino and it was hot!

This one may not even make an official ONI El Nino.

By the looks of it we won't need an official El Nino. The current RSS and UAH anomalies are only now responding to slightly warm-neutral conditions. It's still the 2nd warmest July on record.

[glc]

In the right corner, are
A dearth of sunspots with its sidekick, cooler temps.
A below average summer for most of the US, usually followed by colder US winter temps.
And a late starting Atlantic tropical storm season with its own correlation to colder subsequent winters in the US

You seem to attach rather a lot of importance to 2% of the surface area of the earth.

[stevenotsteve]

glc.
You seem to attach rather a lot of importance to 2% of the surface area of the earth.

Well with ARGO showing the other 98% cooling since 2003 it's the only warming we have. I think we all need a bit more warmth given the last few cold years. Shame it's just a heatwave or weather as we know it by. Think it may be another cold one this winter, what do you think glc.

p.s you can laugh at me in spring if it's the warmest ever winter but it may be me who's laughing.

[nonentropic]

2% of globe maybe but the Southern Hemisphere is quite a bit down in temp also.
If the number comes in as particularly warm then I would be very sceptical of the validity of the data processing that generates the number.

[glc]

Shame it's just a heatwave or weather as we know it by. Think it may be another cold one this winter, what do you think glc.

What do you mean by "another cold one". Are you referring to just the UK or the rest of the world. You ask me what I think. I've posted what I think several months ago. I said 2009 would be warmer than 2008. I also said 2010 would be warmer than both.

2% of globe maybe but the Southern Hemisphere is quite a bit down in temp also. If the number comes in as particularly warm then I would be very sceptical of the validity of the data processing that generates the number

Oh Dear - it seems as though Roy Spencer and John Christy have got things wrong now. To be fair to them - the SH was cold across some of the land areas but the antarctic region was very 'warm' and there has been strong warming across the pacific.