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Post by magellan on Aug 28, 2009 0:36:28 GMT
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mpaul
New Member
Posts: 30
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Post by mpaul on Aug 31, 2009 14:07:19 GMT
Magellan: yep, the adjustments / figuring has indeed "evolved", with Spencer coming up with several important aspects in the wattsupwiththat.com/ article, including: * A) a "mysterious" plateau bias starting c. 2001, which one "Cold Lynx" posted the following: ---------------------- The answer? “So, we constructed a new SST normal for the 1971–2000 base period and implemented it operationally at CPC in August of 2001? From www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/papers/xue-etal.pdfB) the other anomalies indicate a basic stability or trending lower SST, with the exception of the July 09 spike, which appears probably only a spike. Upcoming SST calculations are going to be very interesting. I (a mere outsider in all this) guesstimate downward, when/if SST calcs are accurate. Spencer writes (8-27-09 wattsup): "I went back and started coding from scratch, and tried to use the same procedures as much as possible for all three datasets I analyzed. I’m quite confident in the results now…but I still hope someone else (maybe at NOAA?) will try to do a similar comparison" Also having arguments as to the accuracy of satellite sea levels, it seems that the measurement of the cryosphere is perhaps the most reliable overall measurement, altho "other factors" (sea currents and location of heat/cold) factor in prominently, but at least overall longterm trends can be had. And the latest trend is upward (at least N. Hem, and isn't the S. Hem ice healthy?).
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Post by hilbert on Sept 2, 2009 2:12:40 GMT
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Post by hunter on Sept 2, 2009 4:02:44 GMT
I think that the ocean temperatures are fluctuating around a very small range of changes, and that few, if any changes are happening outside the statistical range of error.
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Post by glc on Sept 2, 2009 8:49:19 GMT
This will be interesting to watch evolve....
wattsupwiththat.com/2009/08/27/sp....ing/#more-10343Looks like evolution is complete .... wattsupwiththat.com/2009/08/31/spencer-always-question-your-results/Roy concludes: "Based upon the above comparisons, I would now say there is no statistically significant difference in the SST trends since 1998 between TMI, the NOAA ERSSTv3b product, and the HadSST2 product. And it does look like July 2009 might well have experienced a warmer SST anomaly than July 1998, as was originally claimed by NOAA."Though it is worth pointing out that HadSST2, though warm, was not a record in July 2009. Perhaps the Hadley anomalies are too low?
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Post by woodstove on Sept 2, 2009 12:37:54 GMT
The Atlantic was part of the "record-high" temperatures (not so far as the world ocean was concerned, but so far as the events during a microsecond of geologic time were registered by some distraught scientists), and yet Hurricane Bill appears to have removed whatever heat was there. (Recognizing that OHC and SSTs are not the same.)
Where are the mega-hurricanes prophesied by Gore et al.?
It will be very interesting to see which way the global SST goes next. As has been pointed out, the string on the yo-yo ain't all that long.
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Post by sfbmikey on Sept 3, 2009 18:48:01 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 4, 2009 18:51:48 GMT
That may be a confusion between Surface Temperatures and Ocean Heat. The sea surfaces till recently - certainly up until July - had not been disturbed as much as usual by any storms. It was a calm in the tropics and sub-tropics early part of the year with the first name storm being mid-August. This may have led to high SST due to a lack of mixing. The mixing has now happened with a few storms that almost all petered out just when they were apparently entering warmer water. This is what would be expected if there was actually no real heat content just a warm surface. The mixing now having taken place the SSTs look cooler again. Another aspect is the AMO and PDO going negative for the first time 'in the satellite era' no-one really knows in detail what will happen with SST and OHC and the various oscillations. Perhaps hot surface, cooler water at depth and low OHC is what to expect. Remember to a large extent the SST cause the convection that cause the winds that mix the sea surface warmth into the lower ocean. If there is little real heat then the convection and winds may not be sufficient for this mixing.
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Post by socold on Sept 4, 2009 19:11:05 GMT
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