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Post by radiant on Oct 16, 2009 19:20:47 GMT
The question remains - what is happening? The real time SST map from NCEP appears to reinforce what the forecast current velocity map is showing polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/eval/images/aofs_sst_natl.pngThe swirl of current across the equator is there - but no sign of warm northward Gulf Stream Nautonnier it is very cold in the water around the southwest of england even in summer The gulfstream cant be warm. it is just less cold than it would otherwise be. Look at the colder water around canada Are you expecting to see specific temperatures which are missing?
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Post by boxman on Oct 16, 2009 19:22:55 GMT
The question remains - what is happening? The real time SST map from NCEP appears to reinforce what the forecast current velocity map is showing polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/eval/images/aofs_sst_natl.pngThe swirl of current across the equator is there - but no sign of warm northward Gulf Stream I was wondering about the same as well. The current observations on that site matches the model perfectly even though the model changed greatly after september 22.
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Post by boxman on Oct 16, 2009 19:28:18 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 16, 2009 20:25:54 GMT
The question remains - what is happening? The real time SST map from NCEP appears to reinforce what the forecast current velocity map is showing polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/eval/images/aofs_sst_natl.pngThe swirl of current across the equator is there - but no sign of warm northward Gulf Stream Nautonnier it is very cold in the water around the southwest of england even in summer The gulfstream cant be warm. it is just less cold than it would otherwise be. Look at the colder water around canada Are you expecting to see specific temperatures which are missing? The forecast model is showing no surface CURRENT The actual NCEP SST picture is showing no warm trace of the Gulf Stream - although you can see around the equator evidence of warmer areas that almost match the model current in that area. I am just puzzled by it. As was stated above I would expect a little more hand waving and possibly chicken little running about.... but perhaps no-one would want to say its going to get cold ahead of the Copenhagen conference.
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Post by radiant on Oct 16, 2009 20:39:48 GMT
I see. Maybe it is just related to this cold blast? that is ongoing across the pole to canada and greenland and coming down thru canada? It is about -24 north of greenland and -22 in the canadian arctic but not so cold on the soviet side. These are low temperatures considering the average temperature in the arctic north of 80 at the coldest point is only a surprisingly high -30 and the average now is about -15. But overall it appears warmer than normal in the arctic. Even if there were -32C temperatures north of greenland earlier today. It has been quite cold here in finland with an unpleasant wind but i dont think you can say it is so unusual
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wylie
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 129
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Post by wylie on Oct 16, 2009 20:44:55 GMT
The NOAA images certainly go through a "phase transition" on Sept. 18 (both temperature and salinity). I strongly suspect a change in their algorithm. Otherwise, huge portions of the Atlantic would have had to move thousands of miles in 24 hours. Pretty hard to imagine. Easy to imagine a programmer changing the algorithm!
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 18, 2009 18:27:25 GMT
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Post by radiant on Oct 18, 2009 21:43:36 GMT
Maybe these guys have had massive budget cuts? Cryosphere cant even manage to let regular users know why they have not updated since 11th of october
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Post by thingychambers69 on Oct 20, 2009 4:02:33 GMT
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Post by poitsplace on Oct 20, 2009 9:45:10 GMT
On the BBC report...Its nice to occasionally see someone forced to face reality.
On the gulf stream...not convinced it means anything since it does that from time to time but it's worthy of watch.
On OHC (just something I was reading) between OHC drop and the long duration of such an anemic El Nino...I really do get the feeling its just recharging for a big La Nina. It would be funny to see the anomaly once again dip to zero (or below). Well, amusing aside from the food shortages and deaths it would cause :\
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Post by boxman on Oct 20, 2009 18:56:35 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 20, 2009 20:14:11 GMT
Are we perhaps witnessing a cycle going negative for the first time using satellite sensing and Argo floats?
This may be uncharted territory
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Post by nemesis on Oct 20, 2009 23:23:32 GMT
Are those cooling towers in the background on the Andrew Neil interview ?
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Post by magellan on Oct 21, 2009 0:41:49 GMT
Hmm.... www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?id=3230Trend analysis of RSS and UAH MSU global temperature data.ABSTRACT Global satellite data is analyzed for temperature trends for the period January 1979 through June 2009. Beginning and ending segments show a cooling trend, while the middle segment evinces a warming trend. The past 12 to 13 years show cooling using both UAH and RSS data, with lower confidence limits that do not exclude a negative trend until 16 to 22 years. It is shown that several published studies have predicted cooling in this time frame. One of these models is extrapolated from its 2000 calibration end date and shows a good match to the satellite data, with a projection of continued cooling for several more decades.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Oct 21, 2009 4:28:04 GMT
Maybe these guys have had massive budget cuts? Cryosphere cant even manage to let regular users know why they have not updated since 11th of october Cryosphere site currently down. 403 error. arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
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