I predict the tempertures will continue to drop, by 2018 we will be below the 20th century average.
This will be shown in the RSS/UAH/Hadley numbers.
However, I also predict no matter how far the temps drop, the GISS/NOAA will continue like they have been doing in the past two years to fudge their numbers to show global warming to be continuing if not accelerating.
My prediction for the remainder of this year is the GISS/NOAA will continue to fudge their numbers just enough to make 2008 one of the top ten warmest years and even though the other outlets will show it not to be, all the world's headlines will still blare "2008 was still one of the warmest years so we still need more taxes and socialist programs". Unfortunately this will be enough to keep the AGW gravy train going.
Post by kiwistonewall on Sept 18, 2008 11:43:40 GMT
I predict that the mean temperature will be stable, or may even rise slightly, but that the daily Maximum will trend lower, and the daily minimum will be higher. (Cooler days from reduced solar activity and the effect thereof on cloud formation etc, and warmer nights from increased greenhouse effect.)
So the solar minimum (which may continue for 60 years) will be unlike those of the previous two cycles (at approx 180 yr intervals) in that extremes will be reduced.
(So I'm claiming both AGW (nights++) and Solar minimum (days--)
There is great danger of a negative tipping point towards a serious cooling, but thanks to the great work of our oil & coal folk, I think we may have adverted that, and we may owe them great thanks, and offer to repaint their power station smoke stacks.
Here's my prediction copied from the old forum. In summary, my prediction is a 0.3C UAH anomaly for 2007 through 2037 plus or minus the temporary affects of ENSO (La Nina and El Nino), minus the affects of volcanic eruptions and meteorites and possibly minus the affects of a dimming of the sun, if any.
Quote from the Old Solar Cycle 24 forum: Here’s my Global Warming trend prediction for the rest of this century based on the UAH anomaly. Current (2007) 0.3C 2037 0.3C 2067 0.7C 2097 0.7C
I arrive at this prediction as follows ( I'll call this the MaxCon 1.0 Global Climate Model prediction):
Combine all Global Warming “Forcers” into 2 categories, Ocean Currents (PDO, AMO, ENSO, etc.) and All Others. Over the 30 year period 1977 to 2007 Global Temperatures increased 0.4C (least squares fit) with Ocean Currents forcing up. NASA says Ocean Currents have about a 60 year cycle with an up leg which just ended followed by a down leg. And, according to NASA, during the current down leg Ocean Current forcing will tend to totally offset the All Others forcing resulting in flat temperatures. The Ocean Currents oscillate such that up leg forcing roughly offsets the down legs. Therefore the Ocean Current half cycle alone causes ½ of 0.4C or 0.2C of warming on the up leg and 0.2C of cooling on the down leg. All Others forcing causes a steady 0.2C warming per 30 years. As a result there are alternating 30 year periods of no warming and .4C warming.
The forecast above is the Trend Forecast. Monthly (and yearly) surface temperatures are temporarily affected by ENSO by as much as +0.7C in a strong El Nino in any given month and -.7C by a strong La Nina. Thus during ENSO events actual temperatures will oscillate widely around the trend. For example, the current trend anomaly for March 2008 is 0.3C from a least squares fit of the last 30 years. But a moderate La Nina has pushed the temperature below trend by about 0.3C to nearly zero. A strong El Nino month in 2037 could show a 1.0C anomaly and a strong La Nina month could show a minus 0.4C anomaly. There are other smaller Ocean Current fluctuations which will cause smaller deviations from trend in any given month, but they are insignificant in the longer term.
Since CO2 forcing is in the All Others category which forces at 0.7C per century and there was a Global Temperature increase prior to the recent uptrend in CO2 concentration, it’s likely that the CO2 forcing is less than 0.5C per century. This would be logical if there is no significant positive “Feedback Effect”.
If the sun “dims” for a number of years (fewer than normal sunspots and reduced overall solar activity) as some believe or there is prolonged volcanic activity or a large meteorite hits then Global temperatures could be much lower than predicted above. Edited by - duwayne on 05/12/2008 14:25:11
I'm not going to go into specifics, because I think that's foolhardy (but admittedly fun) at this point, but I will say this: if the -PDO phase follows past phases and lasts for 20-30 years and the AMO soon follows suit, and SC24 and SC25 are both weaker than recent cycles...no way we see any global warming for at least 30 years. And I would put a 75% chance of temperatures 10 years from now being cooler than they currently are.
I invite those of a sporting disposition to post their Global Mean Temp forecasts into 2010 with a brief statement of method used for the prediction.I especially hope the AGW chaps will post. Here's mine for starters - using Britains CRU 2008 current average of + 0.125 as a starter. Norpag modestly predicts: + or - 0.1 degree change until Oct 2008 with average about 0.125. Oct 2008 - May 2009 a 0.5 cooling giving a - .375 where it stays until Jan 2010. then another 0.2 degrees cooling until May 2010 = - 0.575 where it stays until end 2010. A bit chilly ? Basis for forecast is the Oulu Neutron Monitor data + a time constant system delay of + 3 years.Neutron count is up 14% since Jan 2004 in stages.
The above was the starting post of this thread from back in March.In retrospect I did not allow sufficiently for the end of the La Nina and also for the effect of the NH summer on overall global temps.As my forecast anticipated , Solar cycle 24 has not kicked off. Therefore future changes are still as forecast. Adjustung upwards by 0.15 for the end La Nina and NH summer my predictions to 2010 would now be ( Hadcrut 3) May 2009 - 0.225 May 2010 - 0.425
In addition I suggest that CO2 levels will follow SSTs by about 5 years and start to fall in 2009. Solar Cycles 23 - 24 min early 2010 24 max 2016 SSN 50 - 60 24-25 min 2022 25 max 2028 SSN 80-90 Still looks chilly. Next 6 months will be very entertaining one way or the other.