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Post by missouriboy on Jul 6, 2017 1:37:44 GMT
As all the regulars on this site know, I predicted that the Global Temperatures would be flat during the 2007 to 2037 period. The rationale and calculation methods are covered in previous posts on this thread. As the end of June, 10 and a half years of the 30 year projected flat period are behind us. The average global temperatures of both RSS and UAH are now 0.01C below my prediction. The Hadcrut4 average global temperature for the 10 years and 6 months since 2007 is 0.03C above my prediction. Averaging the error of the satellite measurements (-.01C) with the surface error (+0.03C) we get an average error of +0.01C. To put this in perspective, I think it's safe to say that this average error is significantly lower than the actual accuracy of the global temperature measurements themselves. So far so good. If these results continue you get the blue rose of achievement award. If Astro and others are correct, we all get blue toes. Personally I'm rooting for you. I hate the cold. But I'm not putting any money on it.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 6, 2017 17:54:44 GMT
So far so good. If these results continue you get the blue rose of achievement award. If Astro and others are correct, we all get blue toes. Personally I'm rooting for you. I hate the cold. But I'm not putting any money on it. Yeah the warmth is nice but the cold is necessary out here in the PNW. We need snow for the mountains to fill the rivers and the cold has been keeping bugs we don't like in check. Here too we need cold 'winters' to kill off excess overwintering of ticks (my personal favorites) and other noxious varmints.
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 6, 2017 21:05:13 GMT
Code in the PNW if the snow were to go it will likely rain at least as much possibly more.
We in NZ have two catchments north island/south island one snow filled and one rain filled. We are 70% Hydro and the rain filled catchment is the better match for winter demand. You have bigger mountains and the river flows could well be better. Anticipating problems often wastes energy and we all know that climate is a 30 year smoothing story, a whole generation for planning.
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Post by duwayne on Nov 9, 2017 16:20:36 GMT
My prediction from 10 years ago was that the average UAH anomaly for 2007 to 2037 will be 0.18C. Last year was the hottest ever at 0.51C largely because of the super El Nino plus a high AMO and PDO.
October of this year set an all-time record for the month of 0.63 despite the fact that the El Nino is over. The AMO and PDO are still high.
I do my own anomaly estimates and they are always within a few hundredths of a degree of the official UAH monthly number.
What follows is clearly in the category of wiggle-watching and things can turn on a dime, but….
The anomaly on October 25 was a sizzling hot 0.79C. Just 12 days later on November 6 (the latest date I have calculated) the anomaly has fallen precipitously to 0.38C.
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Post by nonentropic on Nov 9, 2017 18:30:39 GMT
Duwayne do you have a proprietary product for this calculation or is it a little more subjective. Not trying to sound negative as you can have bell weather proxies that work. If you have a great product can we have a feed?
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Post by duwayne on Nov 9, 2017 19:38:32 GMT
Duwayne do you have a proprietary product for this calculation or is it a little more subjective. Not trying to sound negative as you can have bell weather proxies that work. If you have a great product can we have a feed? Nonentropic, my model requires a few seconds each time I do it. Do you think it would be fair if I made the method public and thereby make all those government workers who now provide this information redundant? I'll give you my predicted value for November a few days before the end of the month (if I remember)and you can gauge the accuracy.
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Post by duwayne on Nov 27, 2017 1:12:41 GMT
The UAH anomaly for October was 0.63C. My estimate for November with a few days of data still to come is 0.41C. The temperatures were dropping fast, then leveled out.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 27, 2017 1:21:11 GMT
The UAH anomaly for October was 0.63C. My estimate for November with a few days of data still to come is 0.41C. The temperatures were dropping fast, then leveled out. From the looks of all the cool around, the dropping fast will resume. I do not expect the "bottom" to drop out tho.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 28, 2017 1:38:00 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Nov 29, 2017 23:01:23 GMT
The UAH anomaly for October was 0.63C. My estimate for November with a few days of data still to come is 0.41C. The temperatures were dropping fast, then leveled out. For whatever reason, the lower troposphere has warmed up a little in the last few days and my revised estimate (projection) for the November UAH anomaly is now 0.43C.
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 12, 2017 23:12:46 GMT
The UAH anomaly for October was 0.63C. My estimate for November with a few days of data still to come is 0.41C. The temperatures were dropping fast, then leveled out. For whatever reason, the lower troposphere has warmed up a little in the last few days and my revised estimate (projection) for the November UAH anomaly is now 0.43C. The final UAH for November appears to be 0.36 C ... a 0.27 C decline from October. If N America and Europe so far in Dec are indicative of global, the we may be in for a surprise.
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 13, 2017 0:00:12 GMT
Perhaps someone with a better feel for European temps can give me an opinion on this observation. I was searching other things for Burgos, Spain and ran across the following chart and was somewhat surprised by the record lows for June-August for the 1981-2010 period. I assume that these occurred in the 1980s, Burgos' elevation is 2800 feet and has a dry summer climate. It also lies on the edge of a major Spanish agricultural area. Lows in the 30s, if they reoccur can't be good for production. Unfortunately there are no minimum high temps. And while you're at it, look at how much of European cropland is north of Burgos' latitude 42 N although largely lower than 900m. Yes ... it's difficult cause latitude curves on this projection.
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Post by duwayne on Jan 3, 2018 17:54:14 GMT
Since there hasn’t been much significant news lately on the global climate, I visit “SolarCycle24” infrequently. But I did want to report on my predictions for 2017, as I always try to do.
My prediction was that the global temperatures would remain flat over the 2007-2037 period at the trendline temperature for 2007. For the UAH the trendline temperature was 0.18C and so far after 11 complete years, the average temperature is as predicted, 0.18C.
I had also predicted in June of this year, at a time when the governmental predictions were if anything in favor of an El Nino, that ENSO would fall into the La Nina range by the end of 2017 and that also is exactly what happened.
Predicting the climate isn’t as easy as it may look. The UAH anomalies for 2017 were the third warmest on the satellite record when some had predicted an extremely cold year. And on the other side, the global temperatures over the past several years have grown much slower than the warmists had predicted.
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Post by duwayne on Jan 24, 2018 1:29:54 GMT
My long-time prediction has been that the 2007-2037 average UAH anomaly will be 0.18C. Since July of 2015 all of the monthly anomalies have been above 0.18C. The average of all monthly anomalies since 2007 now sits at 0.18C.
Things will change this year with the UAH anomaly falling significantly from 0.41C in December 2017 to below 0.18C in January. The cooler temperatures will continue for several months and the UAH anomalies will average below 0.18C for the first half of 2018.
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Post by neilhamp on Jan 25, 2018 8:41:38 GMT
Duwayne,
"As all the regulars on this site know, I predicted that the Global Temperatures would be flat during the 2007 to 2037 period." "The rationale and calculation methods are covered in previous posts on this thread."
I have found your prediction made in September 2008 Have you updated it since that date? You mentioned solar influences, but put most emphasis on ocean currents. Have you had any second thoughts on solar in view of the current and projected solar cycles?
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