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Post by douglavers on Aug 15, 2015 11:28:37 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 15, 2015 16:18:48 GMT
We here in the north american continental interior at approximately the same latitude as Melbourne would happily trade a 13 C July winter average for our -1 C January winter average. Of course we would insist on also getting that 20 C January average for our 30+C July average. Mother ocean can be a beautiful creature at the proper location!
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Post by duwayne on Aug 15, 2015 17:30:05 GMT
Some of you may remember my prediction a few years back that the warmists would before too long "discover" the importance of the Ocean Currents with respect to global warming. Anthony Watt's reports the following from Trenberth.
"Amid climate change debates revolving around limited increases in recent global mean surface temperature (GMST) rates, Kevin Trenberth argues that natural climate fluxes – larger than commonly appreciated – can overwhelm background warming, making plateaued rates, or hiatuses, deceiving in significance. After many years of monitoring, it’s clear that the GMST can vary from year to year, even decade to decade; these differences, Trenberth argues, are largely a result of internal natural variability. For example, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a phenomenon where the Pacific Ocean goes through periods of warming and cooling, can have a very strong impact on the climate by altering ocean currents, convection, and overturning. The PDO results in more sequestration of heat in the deep ocean during the negative phase of the PDO; therefore GMST tends to stagnate during this negative PDO phase, but increases during the positive phase. Indeed, observations and models show that the PDO is a key player in the two recent hiatus periods. Some other examples of causes behind natural variation include El Niño, volcanic activity, and decreased water vapor in the stratosphere. These natural variations are strong enough to mask steady background warming at any point in time, Trenberth argues. As researchers develop and test climate change models, it’s important to expect these variations and plan for them.
Interestingly, Watts introduces the above comment with...
[Another excuse for the pause, Trenberth says ‘Internal climate variability masks climate-warming trends’ Anthony Watts / 2 days ago August 13, 2015
From the AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE and the “if warming can’t overcome Nature, is it really there at all?” department.]
This time, I think Trenberth has the right excuse. Is it possible that Trenberth will produce a global warming forecast just like mine some time in the future? It may not be that far-fetched to expect something like that, especially after the next super la Nina.
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Post by duwayne on Sept 18, 2015 14:23:34 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 18, 2015 21:09:43 GMT
It is obviously getting harder and harder to get a new, record-high temperature every month! Excellent statistical comparison.
"It is indeed the case that since 1997, UAH has been on a flat, slowly declining trend (-0.13˚C per century). HadCRUT3 was on a flat, slowly rising trend (+0.18˚C per century). HadCRUT4 is on a much more steeply rising trend of +0.59˚C per century. With a stroke of the brush, the pause was written out of history."
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 20, 2015 14:20:30 GMT
Code; where do u find joes weekly report? Please keep posting links to his next reports as they become available.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 20, 2015 22:51:50 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 21, 2015 1:40:08 GMT
Code; where do u find joes weekly report? Please keep posting links to his next reports as they become available. Sig, Right on his website posted every Sat. They are posted in the mornings depending on when he gets out of bed. Usally around 9am I've seen them earlier. www.weatherbell.com/Just look over the right side of the website and you will see Joe Bastardi's Saturday Summary (9/19). Let me know if this helps and you find it. C Thank you. I did a search, but could not find them. Now I know where to look!
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 21, 2015 1:40:42 GMT
Not too worried about the past, thanks Missouriboy tho.
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Post by duwayne on Oct 23, 2015 16:35:02 GMT
In early 1999, I worked for a large company with extensive interests in the Energy business. The 1997-98 El Nino had resulted in a significant jump in global temperatures and there were several articles concerning rising global temperatures due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Some scientists were predicting warming of as much as 10 degrees by the end of the 21st century. This was the first time that warming showed up in our radar as a significant issue.
Since most of my company’s scientists (and many engineers) worked in the research and development areas which reported to me, I agreed to make an analysis of the threat of global warming.
The “bottom line” of my analysis in 1999 was that if atmospheric CO2 continued to grow at the then current rate we could expect global temperatures to grow by approximately 1 degree centigrade per century.
This 1 degree increase per century prediction was simply a reflection of the actual rate of global warming from 1950 when atmospheric CO2 began to grow rapidly, through 1998.
Eight years later in 2007 after I left the company, I came up with a modification of the forecast which encompasses the observed effects of the approximately 60-year Ocean Current cycle. During the 30-year periods of warm Ocean Currents within the 60-year cycle, global temperatures increased at approximately twice the long term rate. During the cool half of the cycle, temperatures were flat.
History indicated that 2007 would mark the end of a 30 year warming period and we could expect flat temperatures on average through 2037 although year-to-year they would bounce around due to ENSO. The expected average temperature was determined by calculating the trend temperature for 2007 from the least squares trend of the preceding warm half-cycle from 1977 to 2007.
Here is my quarterly update of the actual results versus my prediction for the 2007 to 2037 period.
Prediction Actual Difference Average Hadcrut4 Anomaly since 2007 0.5 0.5 0.0 Average RSS Anomaly since 2007 0.3 0.2 -0.1
I expected average ENSO and the PDO readings for 2007-2037 to be similar to the previous cool half-cycle (1947-1977). A year ago the MVENSO and PDO averages were right at the predicted level. With the current mildly strong El Nino, both averages are running above the prediction.
Prediction Actual Difference Average MVENSO since 2007 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 Average PDO since 2007 -0.6 -0.3 0.3
I anticipate that the MVENSO and PDO will drop into negative territory within the next year or so which will begin to bring the observations back in line with predictions. Based on the last cool Ocean Current period a super La Nina is likely within the next several years.
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Post by douglavers on Oct 23, 2015 21:04:29 GMT
Interesting methodology and set of forecasts.
In the last quarter of the 20th Century, the sun was at its most active for ?8,000 years.
That has now reversed.
I don't think your forecasts take account of this.
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Post by icefisher on Oct 23, 2015 22:41:10 GMT
Interesting methodology and set of forecasts. In the last quarter of the 20th Century, the sun was at its most active for ?8,000 years. That has now reversed. I don't think your forecasts take account of this. I would say that "reversed" is more a matter of opinion than anything else. We have seen the effects of solar cycle slowing only once in the modern industrial age temperature record and that was with solar cycles 12, 13, and 14 from 1878 to 1913. But all considered the cooling seen during that span was rather meager. The descent into the LIA took about 600 years. Further it appears from the ice core record cooling progresses more slowly than warming, so if the 1000 year figure for a full major climate cycle is real, it would suggest maybe 400 years of warming of which we are about 320 years into. 80 years at the top of the warming might compare favorably with the 70 years at the bottom with the Maunder Minimum. All I can say is with financial markets you have to be real patient. You probably have to be a lot more patient with climate cycles. No doubt its made a lot more difficult with a lot of people losing their heads all around us. In financial markets it has a name "market hysteria"!
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Post by AstroMet on Oct 23, 2015 23:48:25 GMT
In early 1999, I worked for a large company with extensive interests in the Energy business. The 1997-98 El Nino had resulted in a significant jump in global temperatures and there were several articles concerning rising global temperatures due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Some scientists were predicting warming of as much as 10 degrees by the end of the 21st century. This was the first time that warming showed up in our radar as a significant issue. Since most of my company’s scientists (and many engineers) worked in the research and development areas which reported to me, I agreed to make an analysis of the threat of global warming. The “bottom line” of my analysis in 1999 was that if atmospheric CO2 continued to grow at the then current rate we could expect global temperatures to grow by approximately 1 degree centigrade per century. This 1 degree increase per century prediction was simply a reflection of the actual rate of global warming from 1950 when atmospheric CO2 began to grow rapidly, through 1998. Eight years later in 2007 after I left the company, I came up with a modification of the forecast which encompasses the observed effects of the approximately 60-year Ocean Current cycle. During the 30-year periods of warm Ocean Currents within the 60-year cycle, global temperatures increased at approximately twice the long term rate. During the cool half of the cycle, temperatures were flat. History indicated that 2007 would mark the end of a 30 year warming period and we could expect flat temperatures on average through 2037 although year-to-year they would bounce around due to ENSO. The expected average temperature was determined by calculating the trend temperature for 2007 from the least squares trend of the preceding warm half-cycle from 1977 to 2007. Here is my quarterly update of the actual results versus my prediction for the 2007 to 2037 period. Prediction Actual DifferenceAverage Hadcrut4 Anomaly since 2007 0.5 0.5 0.0 Average RSS Anomaly since 2007 0.3 0.2 -0.1 I expected average ENSO and the PDO readings for 2007-2037 to be similar to the previous cool half-cycle (1947-1977). A year ago the MVENSO and PDO averages were right at the predicted level. With the current mildly strong El Nino, both averages are running above the prediction. Prediction Actual DifferenceAverage MVENSO since 2007 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 Average PDO since 2007 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 I anticipate that the MVENSO and PDO will drop into negative territory within the next year or so which will begin to bring the observations back in line with predictions. Based on the last cool Ocean Current period a super La Nina is likely within the next several years. I've been saying this for a long time and have long since called the next La Nina to be a powerful one (2021-2022) coming before the weaker El Nino that will take place in 2019-2020.
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 24, 2015 0:02:31 GMT
Astromet,
It's good to see you back. I hope all is well. What are your thoughts on the current El Nino?
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Post by AstroMet on Oct 24, 2015 0:44:55 GMT
Thanks Glenn. All this talk of a 'super El Niño ' is the same as last year. Does everyone remember?
I would also say that Hurricane Patricia is just the latest in a record-shattering 2015 East Pacific Hurricane and Typhoon Season that is typical of climate transitions like the one we've been in for a decade or so as we near the start of global cooling.
And, as usual, there are more extensions of the 'massive' and 'super' El Niño that was supposed to arrive in 2014, then failed to materialize. Now, in this solar year 2015, as we see the same call for a super El Niño and recent quotes like this:
It would be "at least a month if not longer" before typical El Niño rains begin to affect the West Coast, according to Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Assn.'s climate prediction center.
The unseasonably warm summer and Indian summer conditions I forecasted for this year continues. What is happening now are increasing downpours of precipitation due to astronomic conditions, but this is not ENSO as there is no such thing as ENSO-NEUTRAL as NOAA/NWS continues to insist. For them there are El Niño conditions every year? I don't think so.
I continue to say that the last El Niño took place in 2009 and these ENSO events (both El Nino and La Nina) are decadal events and is climate change in action. The next ENSO will be 2019-2022 and will include a weak to moderate El Nino followed by a powerful La Nina.
What we are witnessing in these climate transition years from solar-forced global warming to solar-forced global cooling are intensified storms like the autumn superstorms we've seen since Superstorm Sandy and these eastern Pacific hurricane and typhoons in the autumn seasons of the northern hemisphere.
As one example of this, Hurricane Patricia, which is the strongest storm on record in the western hemisphere, made landfall in Cuixmala along the coast of western Mexico at 7:15 p.m. ET with maximum sustained winds of 165 miles per hour.
After slamming the coast, Patricia moved inland about 50 miles northwest of Manzanillo with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, a slight decrease since landfall, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The storm is expected to weaken further, yet still cause flooding and mudslides in inland areas, as it moves quickly north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico through Saturday, Oct. 24, 2015.
Heavy rains and strong winds will affect Guadalajara, which is Mexico's third-largest city, with 1.5 million people. The storm will also enhance heavy rainfall and flooding into parts of the U.S., where parts of Texas are expected to see up to a foot of rain by early next week.
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