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Post by neilhamp on Jul 4, 2020 16:18:13 GMT
duwayne, I was looking for your 2007 forecast and couldn't find it. Can you direct me to it?
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Post by duwayne on Jul 4, 2020 17:00:46 GMT
You may be tired of hearing this but... In 2007 I predicted the average UAH anomaly for 2007 to 2037 would be 0.2C. The June 2020 number is in and 13 1/2 years have passed and the average anomaly is 0.2C. Good call ... for the moment. It may just be passing through to a lower level since UAH tends to lag ENSO, and Nina seems to have just started down. We'll see how deep and protracted Nina gets and where temp. goes from here. I note that during the 1999, 2007 and 2010 Ninas, UAH global temp. deviations reached -0.25C ... 0.75 C below current. We should start to see some brains exploding if that happens. Missouri, can you give us a measurable prediction?
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Post by duwayne on Jul 4, 2020 19:21:29 GMT
duwayne, I was looking for your 2007 forecast and couldn't find it. Can you direct me to it? Neilhamp, I think you asked this question before. In 2008 the Cycle24 Board deleted all the posts before September 2008. Thus my original 2007 post was deleted. This thread was started at that time and I posted a reference to my 2007 post on the first page of this thread and here is the link. solarcycle24com.proboards.com/post/1209/quote/95?page=136The prediction was (is) for an average UAH anomaly of 0.3C for 2007 to 2037. However, UAH later changed the base years for calculating the anomaly which is now called UAH6. This new base was 0.1C higher than the old base which reduced the anomalies by 0.1C. Thus my prediction measured by UAH6 is 0.2C. This is all covered in a new thread I made here called the MaxCon 1.0 Model. I called it MaxCon 1.0 because I expected a revision might be required but so far that hasn't been necessary. The prediction was based on the premise that atmospheric CO2 would grow at the same rate as it was growing back in 2007. In fact, it has grown at a faster rate in recent years. If CO2 continues to grow at the now current rate, I'll need to issue version 1.1 and adjust the prediction accordingly.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 4, 2020 20:11:24 GMT
Good call ... for the moment. It may just be passing through to a lower level since UAH tends to lag ENSO, and Nina seems to have just started down. We'll see how deep and protracted Nina gets and where temp. goes from here. I note that during the 1999, 2007 and 2010 Ninas, UAH global temp. deviations reached -0.25C ... 0.75 C below current. We should start to see some brains exploding if that happens. Missouri, can you give us a measurable prediction? OK. Based on the historical symmetry of the ENSO observations and a forecast that SC25 will be at or below SC24, I predict the upcoming La Nina will rival those on the front end of SC23 and SC24 dropping to the -1.5 C range and lasting through ~June 2022 or later. Based on past data showing UAH global lower troposphere temperature anomalies tracking ENSO (with a slight lag), I predict that the UAH global temperature anomaly will drop to at least -0.25 C by sometime in 2021. This would be comparable to temps reached in 1999. 2008 and 2011. This could be helped along by a declining AMO. If I get close, I will consider it a victory. If I'm wrong I'm willing to eat a goat. I like goat.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 5, 2020 1:07:25 GMT
Missouri, can you give us a measurable prediction? OK. Based on the historical symmetry of the ENSO observations and a forecast that SC25 will be at or below SC24, I predict the upcoming La Nina will rival those on the front end of SC23 and SC24 dropping to the -1.5 C range and lasting through ~June 2022 or later. Based on past data showing UAH global lower troposphere temperature anomalies tracking ENSO (with a slight lag), I predict that the UAH global temperature anomaly will drop to at least -0.25 C by sometime in 2021. This would be comparable to temps reached in 1999. 2008 and 2011. This could be helped along by a declining AMO. If I get close, I will consider it a victory. If I'm wrong I'm willing to eat a goat. I like goat. In Australia, we eat crow ....... your prediction is in my calendar.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 5, 2020 4:41:10 GMT
OK. Based on the historical symmetry of the ENSO observations and a forecast that SC25 will be at or below SC24, I predict the upcoming La Nina will rival those on the front end of SC23 and SC24 dropping to the -1.5 C range and lasting through ~June 2022 or later. Based on past data showing UAH global lower troposphere temperature anomalies tracking ENSO (with a slight lag), I predict that the UAH global temperature anomaly will drop to at least -0.25 C by sometime in 2021. This would be comparable to temps reached in 1999. 2008 and 2011. This could be helped along by a declining AMO. If I get close, I will consider it a victory. If I'm wrong I'm willing to eat a goat. I like goat. In Australia, we eat crow ....... your prediction is in my calendar. We all know that settled science is an oxymoron ... and crow is absolutely indigestible. Goat on the other hand is quite tasty and still gets the message across. Just ask the goat.
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Post by neilhamp on Jul 10, 2020 9:09:31 GMT
Thanks again Dwayne. Found it at last. Hope I don't forget again. I am approaching octogenarian status. I notice the new models are predicting yet higher temperatures The AMO impact is of greatest interest to me. I am with Astromet anticipating some global cooling over the next 10 years
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 10, 2020 13:41:39 GMT
Thanks again Dwayne. Found it at last. Hope I don't forget again. I am approaching octogenarian status. I notice the new models are predicting yet higher temperatures The AMO impact is of greatest interest to me. I am with Astromet anticipating some global cooling over the next 10 years In the "Age of Woke", models never retreat. They just drop dead one day.
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Post by duwayne on Jul 10, 2020 14:00:18 GMT
Thanks again Dwayne. Found it at last. Hope I don't forget again. I am approaching octogenarian status. I notice the new models are predicting yet higher temperatures The AMO impact is of greatest interest to me. I am with Astromet anticipating some global cooling over the next 10 years Neilhamp, don't forget to tell us how your prediction turned out 10 years from now.
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 10, 2020 22:50:45 GMT
Tandoori Code?
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Post by Ratty on Jul 11, 2020 1:11:24 GMT
[ Snip ] Hey I like crows. There is no accounting for taste.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 11, 2020 2:12:17 GMT
[ Snip ] Hey I like crows. There is no accounting for taste. You're right about that!
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Post by flearider on Jul 11, 2020 5:20:06 GMT
july and it's 11-19c ..and i'm off for a week from monday .. good job i'm indoors decorating the new house .. so we are down 10-15 c on last was going to say 5 yrs but can't remember it like this ..
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 11, 2020 15:03:10 GMT
july and it's 11-19c ..and i'm off for a week from monday .. good job i'm indoors decorating the new house .. so we are down 10-15 c on last was going to say 5 yrs but can't remember it like this .. Cold Atlantic?
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Post by acidohm on Jul 11, 2020 19:44:07 GMT
july and it's 11-19c ..and i'm off for a week from monday .. good job i'm indoors decorating the new house .. so we are down 10-15 c on last was going to say 5 yrs but can't remember it like this .. Cold Atlantic? Cold Atlantic by 4-5°c may modify prevailing winds giving a cooler experience, but the real trick is breaking the prevailing winds and making the air come from a colder area. HLB is good at this (tho conversely can be warmer, as i know you know Mboy) However, can HLB be caused by cooler Atlantic?? (answers on a postcard, but if your answer is yes you're probably right!)
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