That's a drop in surface temperature of 0.18C per year over the three year period 1998-2001. That large cooling trend is due to the transition from El Nino to La Nina. It's caused by ENSO and it's so large it masks everything else.
If ENSO can cause a 0.18C/year masking over 3 years why do you find it implausible that it could cause a 0.02C/year masking over 10 years?
The reason the cycles are not that important is that the intensity just doesn't vary by much as new research confirms.
Note: I am not discrediting the IPCC AR4 as they used what they had at the time, even tho new research showed them wrong. Slow to change they are....but then they need the TSI to vary a lot to make the models work. Otherwise, back to the drawing board.
This is about the 11-year cycle, not the overall 20th century trend in solar output.
Solar output is higher during solar maximum and lower during solar minimum. This is measured by satellites.
The camp and tung paper finds the shift from solar maximum to solar minimum induces 0.2C cooling on the surface temperature record. That implies that the Sun has had a roughly 0.2C cooling effect on global surface temperature since 2002.
That would have masked any warming.
Add in the ENSO cooling since 2002 too and that masks even more.
Potentially the world could have warmed 0.25C since 2002 but the solar minimum and ENSO have cause about the same amount of cooling. 0.25C warming - 0.25C cooling = 0C trend: as observed.
Therefore a 0C trend since 2002 doesn't mean global warming has stopped. Not unless you assume ENSO and the solar cycle cooling is zero.
"The authors have found that Northern Hemisphere temperature changes by 0.21°C per year of solar cycle length. The biggest response found in the temperature series they examined was Svalbard at 1.09°C per year of solar cycle length. The authors also credit me with the discovery of a new branch of science. On page 6 they state.” Archibald (2008) was the first to realize that the length of the previous sunspot cycle (PSCL) has a predictive power for the temperature in the next sunspot cycle, if the raw (unsmoothed) value for the SCL is used.” I have decided to name this new branch of science “solarclimatology”. It is similar to Svensmark’s cosmoclimatology but much more readily quantifiable.
The green corona emissions point to Solar Cycle 24 being 17 years long, and thus 4.5 years longer than Solar Cycle 23. Using the relationship found by Solheim and his co-authors, that means that the 0.63°C decline for the Northern Hemisphere over Solar Cycle 24 will be followed by a further 0.95°C over Solar Cycle 25. That is graphically indicated thusly, using Figure 19 from the Solheim et al paper:"
"On page 6 they state.” Archibald (2008) was the first to realize that the length of the previous sunspot cycle (PSCL) has a predictive power for the temperature in the next sunspot cycle, if the raw (unsmoothed) value for the SCL is used.” I have decided to name this new branch of science “solarclimatology”."
The period 2002-2007 was dominated by El Ninos. The period 2007-2012 was dominated by La Ninas.
The question is the reason for the change in dominance over our climate obviously. And just as obviously its not CO2 doing it.
In 2002 we were near the maximum of solar cycle 23. Solar output dropped significantly into one of the deepest and longest solar cycles in living memory.
And in 2012 we are near the maximum for cycle 24! So I don't get the message! 2006 to 2008 solar minimum was in the middle of the period.
You are just howling into the wind Socold. Lets wait and see what the next 5 or 6 years bring. The failure of climate models to capture historic variance, the fact that historic variance has been as big as the modern warming; there is absolutely no evidence that CO2 does anything to the climate. I knew it was nothing but a theory yet to be tested when I read the AR3 attribution chapter. Obviously the science is not ready and Roger Revelle was right about that in his last paper.
If there is a cooling influence there then it works as a mask.
I don't know about that Socold. Do you wear a mask everytime you make a withdrawal from the bank?