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Post by case8930 on Feb 10, 2015 22:40:54 GMT
Astro, Maybe there was a misunderstanding somewhere along the lines. The main point I'm interested in is this: On Nov. 1st in this forum you told me and I quote "2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year." In 2012, corn yields were 123.4 bu/ac which caused commodity prices to skyrocket to record highs. This past year saw a record yield of 173.4 bu/ac and saw commodity prices plummet. So if 2015 is going to be warmer and drier than 2012 across the Midwest it would stand to reason that yields would be lower than 2012 and even with deflation prices would still have to go up otherwise there would be food shortages worldwide. That is really all I am questioning. I'm not questioning your 2-10 year forecast or anything else. Just questioning what you told me 3 months ago to what you are forecasting today when you said 2015 will be a stable climate in the Midwest. If you have changed your forecast for the Midwest in the past 3 months...fine...then there was just a misunderstanding on both our parts. I'm a farmer and 2012 nearly destroyed many of my friends across the Midwest due to the horrific heat and drought. I'm sorry if I I came on strong before but when you told me 3 months ago that 2015 will be worse than 2012; I'm sure that has many farmers across the Midwest very concerned for feeding their families. I mean no ill will; just want a clarification from what you told me 3 months ago to what you are saying today. Thank you and God bless. Case, First, the 2015 season is not yet here, so we will see about my climate forecast for the solar year. Sometimes people try to extract a free forecast out of me while making comments about my public seasonal climate forecasts. I don't like that because anyone would know that each region of North America has its own particular range of weather which can only be ascertained with extensive work, which I do, but the public climate forecasts I post are for the benefit of the general public, including farmers who want a heads up on what general climate conditions will be. And I am quite aware of what happened in 2012, as I was the forecaster who made the climate forecast about the impending drought in the Midwest, that I also said would then migrate westward into California and turn into a multi-year drought. That is the reason why I gave the forecast in the first place - to warn farmers ahead of time. Which I did - before the fact. As for 2015, yes, the overall climate conditions in the northern hemisphere will be 'warmer-than-normal' and will extend into the harvest season with an Indian Summer. I did NOT tell you that 2015 will be worse than 2012 in the Midwest, so I do not know where you came up with that because I did not say that. If you are going to make sense out of my climate forecasts, then you could have asked for clarification without adding in things that I did not say to you. A warmer climate is good for crops, but 2015 will not be like the drought I forecasted and which struck the Midwest, but rather an extended warmer climate 2015, which will tend to be warm and drier into the first half of 2016, then warmer and wetter in the second half of 2016. Regarding the medium to longer-range: My forecast for the arrival of global cooling is more important, and I warn you, and all farmers not to put short term concerns ahead of longer-range ones if you want to survive and stay in the business of farming. Below is the exact question I asked and the answer you gave me on this board 3 months ago. I didn't put any words in your mouth; I asked if 2015 would be as hot and dry as 2012 and you said it would be. Its all there in black and white below. Maybe you misspoke to me 3 months ago or have changed your forecast since but I was strictly going off what you told me 3 months ago. I applaud you trying to help farmers but don't want other farmers to be thinking we're going to be having a 2012 type drought if they read your comment 3 months ago and now 2015 is going to be a good year. case8930 Avatar Oct 30, 2014 at 10:00pm case8930 said: Astromet: Do you foresee the 2015 summer being as hot and dry as the 2012 summer was in the Midwest? I hope it will just be brief heatwaves and not exceptionally dry.
2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year.
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Post by case8930 on Feb 10, 2015 22:08:37 GMT
I agree Sigurdur that the next 5 years are going to be a bumpy ride. Just based on the past one would probably assume that the next 5 years will be reasonably decent years and thus making for lower prices.
But based on talking with university and government type people, its looking like for corn farmers at least for 2014 and 2015 they could be looking at payments of $30-$100/acre for both 2014 and 2015 through ARC-CO and very little to no PLC payments for at least those first 2 years. Now if prices continue to collapse then PLC could pick up and ARC-CO could go to zero for the last few years of the farm bill. Soybean payments would be less than corn for 2014 and 2015 but still could be something. Wheat I am unsure on. From talking with some Farm Service Agency people, they are saying a majority of people in the corn belt region are signing up for ARC-CO and those in wheat/cotton country are doing PLC.
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Post by case8930 on Feb 10, 2015 18:35:09 GMT
Probably the most important chart to learn/watch, in regards to commodity prices it the dollar chart. When the dollar is high, which it presently is and will potentially stay, commodity prices remain low. The world presently has plenty of corn/wheat and soybeans. Would a weather disruption in the USA have world wide implications? Yes. The market reaction tho, could be somewhat muted if the world economy is still in a muted growth zone. As Astromet mentioned, potential deflation is a very real threat. Not only would this devalue present assets, it also has the effect of increasing the level of debt held by countries, as they have to pay debt with deflated currency. Lack of flexibility in the 2014 farm bill is one of its larger flaws. I agree the dollar has a huge impact on commodity prices. Don't have the chart in front of me but in the early 2000's the dollar was higher than it is now and commodity prices were even lower than they are now so I have no doubt we are in a deflationary cycle period and it very much so is going to negatively impact commodity prices. When it comes down to it though; weather trumps everything as far as food commodity prices go. If we have an average to above average yields in the US then yes commodity prices will continue to tank; but if we were to have another 2012 type drought then prices would go up significantly. Maybe they wouldn't get as high as 2012 but they would go up significantly. If Astromet believes that crop years 2015-2020 will be average to above average for corn/soybeans/wheat yields then I will wholeheartedly agree with him that commodity prices will tumble due to deflation and over-production and PLC will be the ticket but if we have a 2012 type drought/heat this year like he told me earlier than ARC-CO might be better.
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Post by case8930 on Feb 10, 2015 12:58:25 GMT
Astro,
Maybe there was a misunderstanding somewhere along the lines. The main point I'm interested in is this: On Nov. 1st in this forum you told me and I quote "2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year." In 2012, corn yields were 123.4 bu/ac which caused commodity prices to skyrocket to record highs. This past year saw a record yield of 173.4 bu/ac and saw commodity prices plummet.
So if 2015 is going to be warmer and drier than 2012 across the Midwest it would stand to reason that yields would be lower than 2012 and even with deflation prices would still have to go up otherwise there would be food shortages worldwide. That is really all I am questioning. I'm not questioning your 2-10 year forecast or anything else. Just questioning what you told me 3 months ago to what you are forecasting today when you said 2015 will be a stable climate in the Midwest. If you have changed your forecast for the Midwest in the past 3 months...fine...then there was just a misunderstanding on both our parts.
I'm a farmer and 2012 nearly destroyed many of my friends across the Midwest due to the horrific heat and drought. I'm sorry if I I came on strong before but when you told me 3 months ago that 2015 will be worse than 2012; I'm sure that has many farmers across the Midwest very concerned for feeding their families. I mean no ill will; just want a clarification from what you told me 3 months ago to what you are saying today. Thank you and God bless.
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Post by case8930 on Feb 9, 2015 22:05:05 GMT
I think everyone needs to take Astro's forecast with a grain of salt and remember where you're reading this, it's an online open forum, the equivalent of a call in radio talk show. Hi doc I've got a pain in my back...what do you you think? Do I think Astro is capable of providing the detail some of you want? Yes, I do but I also realize it would cost money for a professional analysis. That medical doctor is going to provide a much clear and accurate diagnosis of your back pain if you pay him for his time and expertise. If you're expecting his forecast to be spot dead on for your region then you need to stop and realize what you're asking for and what he's providing in this forum are two different horses. It sounds like some of you are asking for a professional medical diagnosis based on some brief chit chat. It won't happen. Astro does offer professional forecasting, as he has said, but don't' expect it for free. What he's provided here is awesome, thanks Astro, and I bet if he did a fee based report it would be more awesome, it would be awesomenesser. Is that a word? I don't think so. I guess his forecast is no better than the NOAA forecast they put out then. Why even put out a forecast if you're just going to talk in circles? Don't come on a internet forum and say 2015 will be worse than 2012 across the Midwest (which I quoted above and 2012 had catastrophic yield losses in the Midwest and which commodity prices skyrocketed) and then in another post say that 2015 will be hot but have good yields in the midwest. Basically he has covered his bases both ways. I understand he has a fee based report but don't come on and give a free forecast that has generalizations that could apply to anywhere in the US...that's pointless. I'll put out a forecast; it will be hot, there will be some rain, there will be some storms, there will be cool spells and some hot spells; some places will have droughts and others not. I bet I'll be right come fall.
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Post by case8930 on Feb 9, 2015 3:15:28 GMT
Asto, You say you see fairly stable climate years in 2015-2020 but earlier this winter in your forecasts you said that the summer/fall of 2015 was going to be very hot and dry (similar to 2012) so if that the case then commodity prices will more than likely skyrocket for this year and 2016 so the PLC option wouldn't be of much value. Just trying to clarify your previous forecast of being very hot and dry and then saying we'll be having stable climate years 2015-2020. Case8930, My forecast for deflation does not affect the climate, nor the other way around. The PLC option works better when food commodity prices are falling. There is a glut already and the warmer solar year of 2015 will not change that, but actually will add increased yields to the building glut. Guess I'm still not following. I agree PLC works better when commodity prices are falling. Prices are falling due to the fact that the corn belt (mainly NE, MN, IA, IL, OH and IN)had cooler than normal temps along with normal to above normal rainfall this past growing season and raised record corn and beans yields. You told me in your Climate forecast 2014-2015 that and I quote "2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year." Due to the terrible drought of 2012 crop prices that year were the highest they had ever been in history. If you're saying 2015 will be warmer and drier than 2012 across the Midwest than I would assume crop prices will be higher than they were in 2012. Normally warmer than normal temps during the growing season hurt yields rather than help.
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Post by case8930 on Feb 6, 2015 17:55:12 GMT
Asto,
You say you see fairly stable climate years in 2015-2020 but earlier this winter in your forecasts you said that the summer/fall of 2015 was going to be very hot and dry (similar to 2012) so if that the case then commodity prices will more than likely skyrocket for this year and 2016 so the PLC option wouldn't be of much value.
Just trying to clarify your previous forecast of being very hot and dry and then saying we'll be having stable climate years 2015-2020.
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Post by case8930 on Dec 2, 2014 4:42:43 GMT
Theo or anyone else for that matter; I was just wondering what everyone thought could have been done had the government or media jumped on the global cooling bandwagon 10-15 years ago rather than global warming? Its not so much people needing fuel/energy for heating for the brutal winters ahead its more the loss of food production from much of the normal growing regions.
Its not like you can tell all the farmers in the northern regions that starting in 2018 you all need to move 1000-2000 miles further south because you won't be able to grow crops. Heck, look at the billions poured into the global warming farce and the steps they were doing to combat global warming would have never worked anyhow.
We're talking about billions of people that are going to be affected. Governments would have been needed to have been throwing trillions of dollars at this problem and even then I don't know how much they could have done.
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Post by case8930 on Nov 2, 2014 1:59:17 GMT
Astromet: Do you foresee the 2015 summer being as hot and dry as the 2012 summer was in the Midwest? I hope it will just be brief heatwaves and not exceptionally dry. 2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year. Thanks Astromet. I will definitely not be looking forward to the summer of 2015 then. 2012 was miserable for me and for many of my friends and relatives across the Midwest due to the drought as many wells and rivers went dry and crops dried up. It will not be an enjoyable summer.
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Post by case8930 on Oct 31, 2014 3:00:05 GMT
Astromet: Do you foresee the 2015 summer being as hot and dry as the 2012 summer was in the Midwest? I hope it will just be brief heatwaves and not exceptionally dry.
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Post by case8930 on Sept 23, 2014 1:18:05 GMT
So grocery prices should be dropping now...after the drought of 2012; all the grocery people were quick say food was going up because commodity prices were at record highs. Now prices are at 5 year lows so prices should be dropping but we all know they won't. I really wish some of the agriculture groups would call out these places that raised prices when commodity prices were high and now aren't lowering prices now when commodities are at the lows.
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Post by case8930 on Sept 5, 2014 1:45:49 GMT
Looking like a good chance of frost/freeze for middle to late next week for much of the upper Midwest according to some model runs. Hopefully the models are wrong...think most farmers could still use a couple more weeks of frost free weather.
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Post by case8930 on Aug 8, 2014 1:34:15 GMT
If there is a frost/freeze on the 18th of Aug, there won't be buckets big enough to hold all the tears. You've got that right. Just afraid that whenever the next polar vortex comes this month or next it will be bringing freezing temperatures with it.
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Post by case8930 on Aug 8, 2014 1:25:06 GMT
Looked at the GFS model out to August 18th and its showing possible frost/freeze for Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. Granted that's a longs ways out and we know how accurate forecasts are that far out but makes one wonder. Frost needs to hold off at least another 6 weeks for much of the Midwest crops.
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Post by case8930 on Jul 23, 2014 22:23:15 GMT
That's what really has me concerned about global cooling. I can't imagine having freezes in August or early September. The growing season is barely long enough for many of the northern tier of states and Canada and to then shorten the growing season even more would be devastating. I'd be interested if Theo thinks we'll have an early frost this year.
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