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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Oct 27, 2020 16:15:58 GMT
One week out:
Final:
Biden Gets: EV Washington: 12 Oregon: 7 California: 55 Illinois: 20 New York: 29 Vermont: 3 Maine (Mostly) 11 New Jersey 14 Connecticut: 7 Rhode Island: 4 Delaware: 3 Maryland: 10 Hawaii: 4 DC: 3
Trump gets the rest...
I think if it is close. It all turns into a steaming pile as the election heads into the courts. Then the badness will begin. I think there is a significant chance of this if it is close enough that contested ballots matter, in states that matter. Sure there will be cheating in deep blue area's. But imagine the whole shooting match comes down to Pennsylvania.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Sept 27, 2020 14:22:24 GMT
Additionally IMHO many of the current polls are using the same demographic assumptions used in 2016. They are completely ignoring gains Trump appears to have made in several traditional Democrat constituencies.
Has anyone seen any polls conducted if Republicans get a different percentage of African American votes in 2020? Hispanic? In almost every case the answer is a resounding no. Does anyone believe that these numbers won't change? In Florida, Clinton won the Hispanic vote by 30 points. Polls currently have Trump even or ahead in that catagory. If Biden does not win with Hispanic voters in Florida by at least double digits beginning with a 2, Trump wins Florida in a landslide. Am I crazy?
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Sept 27, 2020 13:46:49 GMT
So, while ya'll talk about Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania... I want to talk about Virginia. (I live here now.) In 2016 Virginia was a purple state trending blue. Clinton won by five points. The most recent Virginia poll has Biden up by five points. So... Why do I think Virginia will vote Trump? In 2016 Clinton had a 6% edge in voter registration. In 2008 a wave year for dems, they only got to +7. I think this is good evidence that the ceiling for dems is around +7. In the above poll to get Biden to +5 the poll demographics were dem +12.5! 42% democrat 29.5 Republican. Personally I see Trump winning Virginia by 2 points. Am I crazy?
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Sept 25, 2020 14:05:21 GMT
Trump has a long way to go to win 45 states. Washington, Oregon, California will vote blue and you can add more so how do you get 45? Wishful thinking? Washington, Oregon, California, New York, Massachusetts, (OK, but not a state) DC. True Blue... 5 New Jersey, Hawaii, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island Yea long shots Don't think Trump gets any of those... 10 Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Maine, Vermont , Minnesota, Virginia flip. No I have to agree with you, 45 is nuts. Your honor, I'll take 40 for a dollar. I think Trump has Maine, Virginia, Vermont and new Mexico now... I think he's got a solid shot at Nevada and Colorado... Illinois and Minnesota are a tough row to hoe but not impossible... Poke fun at me now...
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Sept 15, 2020 16:30:00 GMT
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Sept 6, 2020 19:00:32 GMT
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Aug 21, 2020 18:43:27 GMT
Heal, Fight, Win!!!
P.S. 2020 is a stone cold B*tch!
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Aug 19, 2020 15:30:58 GMT
Good Morning Dr. Svalgaard, it's been awhile... I recently came across an article... agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019SW002428The entire paper is based upon the premise that there will be a significant increase in galactic cosmic rays within the solar system do to reductions in the solar wind. It is my understanding that while the current solar minimum has been unusually deep, most predictions for cycle 25 have reasonably normal expectations for solar activity. Is this opinion still current, or have there been developments?
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Aug 19, 2020 13:48:07 GMT
Flood number 5 on the Yellow river. Largest in a hundred years. Twice the flow of previous flood. -------------- Looks like an early winter for areas of Gannon Prefecture of Gensoo Province in Northern China. First snowfall of the season, 25 days earlier then average. There are reports that livestock is not tolerating the sudden temperature drop well.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Aug 17, 2020 13:55:39 GMT
Morning all... Just signed on to check in, and ask if anyone (cough Sig) has heard anything about increased Chinese commodity purchases. I have been expecting to hear about large increases, and while I have heard about a few large corn buys, I'm not seeing the magnitude I have been expecting, are the reports overblown… Is the CCP sticking it’s head in the sand… Are they heading for a famine? 1. Flooding: There are rumblings that Chinees grain harvests will be down more than 30% this summer from flooding alone. 2. Corruption, Communism: At least some of their strategic grain storage was destroyed by mold prior to the rainy season. 3. Locusts: Minimal effects, but that thing with straw and camel’s backs. 4. Fall armyworm: When it rains… 5. African Swine Flu Ongoing?: Reports of swine flu have tricked to a stop, with the last one I can find in early June. Regardless: Pork production is down more then 40% this year as a result of the last two years impact of the virus. (It takes time to rebuild herds.) And pork prices are near record highs. 6. Avian Flu: This one I don’t know about, early in the year there were reports of at least two outbreaks of Avian Flu, which would devastate local chicken production, but there has been nothing but silence on the subject for months. Which is a little… Weird. If the outbreaks had been contained, wouldn’t there be an announcement? (Same with swine flu)
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Aug 11, 2020 17:03:03 GMT
It looks more like it will turn North and worry Bermuda. Although it would be nice if it did an Isabel and went up the Chesapeake It had better not go up the Chesapeake. I'm still sore from fixing the Isaias damage. Plus, I agree that everyone agrees that it will fizzle. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure everyone also agrees that the end of Aug and September will be ugly. Just... Let someone else have the fun.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Aug 10, 2020 14:16:06 GMT
Almost finished repairing my Isaias damage. Had a large branch fall on our fence. Took out 20' and three posts. I hate digging post holes. I see that both of the weather guys I follow are getting very excited about the next month or two. I hope they are wrong.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jul 17, 2020 17:27:58 GMT
After poking around, it looks like there is enough surplus grain to get the world through 2020, even if I had no idea that the comodity glut we have is so huge, and that global demand has fallen off due to the Chinese Lung Rot.
On the other hand, it still would suck to live in China right now.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jul 17, 2020 16:41:33 GMT
I try to get information from lots of different places, and it gets filed in my brain bank. I imagine that some of this if propaganda or false information, wrong... whatever. I have noticed, over the course of the past two months. 1. Food inflation in China is being reported higher then 10% per month. 2. Locusts are affecting large swaths of agriculture this year. 3. East Asia (Including China) is reporting another swine flu outbreak. 4. China has reported an outbreak of bird flu in the Hunan province. 5. China has experienced MAJOR flooding in one of it's main rice growing areas. (Thousands of square kilometers reporting crop damage.) 6. Much of China's strategic corn reserve has been destroyed by mold. Much of this information does not come from official Chinese sources, of course it is my opinion that the CCP's first instinct is to lie. So it is hard to tell what is actually going on. If some of this is true I would expect to see upside pressure on grain and pork futures. Has anyone (Sig) seen evidence of this? Although to tell the truth, it sort of feels to me that the Chinese govt has... Lost the plot? Not sure how to describe it. All of this is happening concurrently with the Wuhan Flu, and the Chinese real estate bubble. I suspect that it is going to get messy over there. Edit: I tried to find the article about moldy strategic corn reserve. I could not find it which is... interesting. I did not look very hard because I found this... China largest ever...
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jun 9, 2020 17:52:11 GMT
Trump wins 45 states, Republicans maintain control of the Senate. In the House Nancy loses the Gavel. Any questions? Trump has a long way to go to win 45 states. Washington, Oregon,California will vote blue and you can add more so how do you get 45? Wishful thinking? Washington, Oregon, California, New York, Massachusetts, (OK, but not a state) DC. True Blue... 5 New Jersey, Hawaii, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island Yea long shots Don't think Trump gets any of those... 10 Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Maine, Vermont , Minnesota, Virginia flip. No I have to agree with you, 45 is nuts. Your honor, I'll take 40 for a dollar.
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