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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 27, 2009 20:52:07 GMT
Why aren't there any other scientist doing these measurements? Bill Livingston is the best there is. His telescope is the best there is. Leif there is no doubting the quality of Livingston's work or the capability of the equipment he uses. But the weakness thus far is the fact that he has been doing said research since 1995, and in earnest since 2003. The questions surrounding Livingston's work revolves the extrapolation he advances. It is my understanding that this was the reason the paper he submitted for peer review was rejected. And Livingston himself says he is comfortable the rejection. That rejection was not an indictment of his work it was saying "there is not enough information presented in this paper to justify your conclusion". "Continue your research and resubmit the paper when you have comprehensive data to support your claim". To answer jcarels inquiry there are sources of data regarding Magnetic Strength Plague. That data is gathered at the Mount Wilson Observatory operated by UCLA. www.astro.ucla.edu/~obs/150_data.html#plotsLeif have you looked in to this source ? I realize the equipment at Mt Wilson is a toy compared to what is available at Kitt Peak but is the data so raw as to be useless ?
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 24, 2009 4:09:20 GMT
Intelsat-14 launched OK. The next Atlas rocket is SDO! GREAT ! That rocket had a couple of Solid Rocket boosters strapped to it. Lets hope the additional damage to the pad is minimal. Even with the extra work there should be more than adequate time to get the booster stacked and SDO Launched in February.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 22, 2009 19:33:45 GMT
Hey Guys! Here's some PR on the SDO from SPACE DAILY on the 20th. Unfortunately, they don't even hint at a launch date. George That is a reprint of an article posted on the SDO Website last Thursday. Not only does it not include a launch date it doesn't have anything newsworthy in it. My suspicion is this post was created because the SDO Website ( sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ ) had not been updated in 6 Weeks. This is strictly filler material. Do not miscontrue this as complaining. I have no problems with leaving a website without updates because there is nothing enlightening worth saying. What I do find as highly obnoxious is that Twitter Page link ! They talk about everything EXCEPT SDO. What purpose does that serve ? I could care less about Astro-Mike. The fact is that stuff comes off as Mickey Mouse and beneath NASA's Standards. Leif if you're reading this feel free to relay that comment to Dean Pesnell. And tell him the smart move is to ditch that junk. Returning to SDO I would imagine the reason why the launch date was not included is because it has slipped numerous times. Even with the record of numerous delays we are getting close. Intelsat 14 is the last obstacle. SDO is up next once Intelsat 14 is in the air. Here is NASA's Launch Schedule. www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html Another interesting point. The launch of GOES P was pushed up a couple of weeks into the last week in February. So NASA must feel pretty confident they can get SDO in the air in the first half of the month.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 20, 2009 18:25:23 GMT
Leif, Have you heard anything about how the latest 17 measurements line up with the past downward trend? Thanks, G. They line up where there should: Leif what parameter is the Pink Trace measuring ? I know the scale says "contrast" ? To save you the trouble is there a reference article that explains this parameter ?
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 19, 2009 20:18:58 GMT
This stuff belongs with the "Stock Market" silliness. If you want to discuss this line of thought do it in the Open Forum.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 19, 2009 17:05:20 GMT
Leif, A question about Bill Livingston's methodology. When measuring the intensity of sunspot magnetism how does Livingston account for the number of spots on the sun ? Does he take the mean value or does he ignore it and report the value from the most intense spot ? Or report every spot ?
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 19, 2009 16:26:00 GMT
GOES 10 will be decommissoned December 1, 2009
GOES 14 will become the Primary and currently the only Satellite to supply XRS Data.
See link belowwww.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html Hi Bob, It looks like we can't seem to make sure that we're covered. Is GOES 10 dead or is the decommissioning a budgetary thing? G. GOES 10 has come to the end of it's life. It is just about out of fuel for its manuevering system. Because the corridor available to orbit geosynchronus satellites is very narrow all countries that use it have signed an agreement to deorbit all satellites when their fuel supply is used up. That time has come for GOES 10. What is a shame is all of the damaged XRS Equipment currently orbitting on GOES Satellites. The Pointing mechanisms for the XRS Equipment on both GOES 11 & 12 are busted. The XRS equipment on GOES 13 was lost when that Satellite was hit with an X-Class Flare during it's Post-Launch Checkout. There will be backup XRS Equipment available once GOES P/15 is launched and checked out. GOES P is scheduled for launch in early March and should complete its check out 4 months later. However GOES 15 will probably be placed in storage once cleared while GOES 13 is brought out of storage. At that point we will have back-up capability that can be deployed quickly in the event GOES 14 XRS Equipment fails.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 18, 2009 22:12:12 GMT
The launch of Intelsat 14 was hung up over the weekend due to an equipment failure. The problem revolved around the failure of a pyrotechnic device used to light off one of the Solid Rocket Motors. Why couldn't they simply use a Zippo Lighter ? The rocket had to be wheeled back into the Vehicle Assembly Building for repairs which have been completed. Intelsat 14 is now scheduled to be launched Sunday Night-Monday Morning with a back-up 24 hours later. The back-up date was given because weather cinditions could be marginal Sunday. Even with this delay there should be plenty of time to get the booster for SDO Stacked and the Satellite launched on time.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 18, 2009 2:18:25 GMT
GOES 10 will be decommissoned December 1, 2009
GOES 14 will become the Primary and currently the only Satellite to supply XRS Data.
See link belowwww.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 9, 2009 5:31:33 GMT
Bob, If my memory serves me correctly, we're well beyond the orbital life expectancy of SOHO. We may be living on borrowed time. Let's hope the powers that be don't delay the SDO launch too much more. If SOHO dies, we're back to watching from the ground (with all of those atmospheric limitations. To put it another way, we'll be essentially blind!! G. SOHO like all satellites is designed for a nominal life expectancy of 5 years. It was launch in December 1995 that makes it 14 years old. It is actually in pretty good shape. They over designed the fuel capacity onboard because NASA figured they would expend quite a bit getting into orbit. That didn't turn out to be the case. Last year I figure out they had almost 20 years of hydrazine left at current consumption rates. the big issue is the deterioration of the Solar Panels. Right now they are at 80% of capacity at launch once it drops below 70% NASA-ESA will have to start shutting instruments down. Right now the deterioration is happening slowly because there is little solar activity. If the Solar Cycle picks up quickly over the next 6 months that could change dramatically. All it would take is SOHO getting hit by a few good sized flares and NASA would have some decisions to make. Even if SOHO goes toes up its not the end of the world. It probably light a fire under some keesters to get moving on SDO. The big inconvience comes when SDO has to be calibrated. SOHO is up and running and as close to a perfect reference as you can get. Right now SOHO receives about 8 hours of DSN time per day in 2 to 3 hour periods. If SDO is launched on time there will be a test period beginning in Mid-May when SOHO will be in contact with earth 24 hours a day continuously to Mid-July. It's purpose during that time is to furnish calibration data principly for HMI. Once that is complete everything that comes out of SOHO will be gravy. How long will SOHO last ? I would say 15 years is definitely in the plans. 20 years is possible. Ulysees lasted 18 Years and SOHO is in far better shape than Ulysees. The question will be will there be the Satellite Dish Time (DSN) ? That stuff is both limited and expensive.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 9, 2009 0:59:45 GMT
FYI According to NASA SOHO will do a 360 degree flip Monday Morning. This is not a 180 degree keyhole flip. The next one of those is scheduled for November 7. Bob, Looks like it did it, right on schedule!! G. Thank goodness. It appears NASA had a glitch the last time so they did a test roll and then turned the cameras on during the flip this time. I just want SOHO to hold together long enough to get SDO calibrated then the Ole Girl can poop out.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 8, 2009 20:34:58 GMT
SpaceX has asked for 2:nd of Feb 2010 for the launch of their Falcon 9 rocket. After that on the 3:ed of Feb is SDO:s slot and SDO has the range. I hope that this will stick so that SDO can launch. Then I see that Endeavour is targeted to launch on Feb 4. It is a little crowded around SDO:s launch date. I hope we donĀ“t get a slip. /Sven With the number of launch delays this mission has suffered I no longer have any confidence in the promises given about launch dates. This bird was suppose to be in the air nearly 2 years ago. I don't know how Elizabeth Citrin and Dean Pesnell can maintain any semblance of positive morale when the launch suffers delay after delay. I would like to believe NASA would tell that Eccentric who runs the Falcon program he is going to have to wait his turn but that would be logical and just. Given the current circumstances I have little confidence in that happening. ADDED If Intelsat 14 is launched next Saturday without any hitches we will have that will working in our favor. Once the Pad is clear and ready for prep work NASA and ULA will be anxious to stack the next booster. ULA's Atlas Program is behind schedule and everyone is eager to clear their backlog. The month of February is clear after the shuttle flight. I would not be surprised to see NASA assign a launch date for the Falcon Program of Feb 8 or later.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 6, 2009 5:52:04 GMT
And Bob...I am having the discussion with Leif. You are having a PUBLIC DISCUSSION on a PUBLIC MESSAGE BOARD And I am a Moderator on that board. You sloughed off a concern about your conduct expressed by a Moderator in a way that shows no respect for the moderator or board policy. You're the one that needs to be straighten out ! You are the one for which Kevin and I receive email complaints. NONE of which came from Leif. Your "style" of discussion amounts to little more than childish prattle. If you want to have a private discussion with Leif then you are welcome to exchange emails with him and don't need the services of this board ! You' re done !
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 6, 2009 4:35:15 GMT
You have said yourself there are problems with telescope time and weather....no need to go any further than that, this makes the data inconsistent. Is that the best you can do ? Engage in polemics by parsing words and mistating quotes ?
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Post by Bob k6tr on Nov 6, 2009 0:51:12 GMT
so what happened to the expected 3000 Guass reading? Nobody expected 3000 G. We expected 2000 G, and got 2011 G. Sunspots are getting warmer and have less concentrated magnetic flux. This impairs their visibility to the point that if the Sun keeps this up, spots will be invisible by 2018, just as they were during the Maunder [and Spoerer] Minimum. The spots would still be there, the dynamo will still operate and cosmic rays would still be modulated, as observed. Solar activity would therefore not come to a still stand, but the magnetic flux in spots would just be less concentrated. The F10.7 radio flux would be less affected and would not show a 'Grand Minimum' signature.What about the UV Radiation coming out of these types of "Spots" Leif. Will that remain the same or tail off ?
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