bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Sept 10, 2014 20:50:05 GMT
a >X10 flare in a few days, following todays X-flare, and we have a potential carrington event...
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Oct 1, 2013 6:53:00 GMT
thank you Leif At what point will the 2012 solar maximum in 13 month sunspot number be declared as solar maximum? Looks like double tops in the sunspot cycle typically are up to ~2 years apart... so if we dont have a higher peak winter 2014, will that signal that solar maximum was 2012?
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Sept 30, 2013 10:50:34 GMT
Hi Leif I have a question about identifying solar maximum. The normal indicator is the 13 month smoothed sunspot number. But are there other alternative indicators, using other parameters than monthly sunspot number? And are there records of such indicators (dates for maximum)? For example - how excact can the shifting of poles be identifyed, and are there historical records of the dates of pole shifts? Or others like sunspot latitude, flares, polar faculae and so on... JAn
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Sept 17, 2013 6:19:56 GMT
super, thanx a lot Leif
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Sept 16, 2013 7:08:29 GMT
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Jun 9, 2013 21:20:25 GMT
update on sunspotcycle Two mechanisms: First he “dynamo”, angular momentum, wobble etc has a cycle that is topping around September 2013. This cycle tells what kind of “potential” that lies beneath the Suns surface www.sibet.org/solar/sc24_forecast_jusa.jpgSecond the tidal cycle shows what goes on on the shorter term. This mechanism “pulls up” the sunspots from below the surface, and/or exhaust those that allready are floating. Messy image: Two observations: 1-the tidal cycle (dark red) corresponds with local flux tops (green wavelet). Mostly the flux-tops lags the tidal tops. 2-every two or three tidal tops are major, producing major peaks in solar flux (black wavelet). One peak was lagging more than normal, and cannot be explained by this simplyfied model. Current situation: May 16 was a major tidal peak, and has so far produced a major flux top also in May. Now flux has dropped much, and it looks like the major top is done (unless there is a lagging peak still ahead). The next major tide is in January 2014, where the dynamo has turned down. After this tide, the tidal cycle is also loosing strength. Conclusion: At the moment it looks like we have had the major flux-top after the May 16 tidal top. And the next major tide in January should be too late to produce a solar maximum. So unless there is an anomalous flux-top coming next months… it looks like this sunspot cycle is about to roll over. But we know for certain first around March 2014. If flux stays weak this fall, it is a pretty good indication that we have started to roll over.
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Jun 2, 2013 8:49:50 GMT
a look at solar flux versus my ~4 month planetary Venus-Earth-Jupiter tidal force cycle. My work has found a correlation between the tidal force cycle and flux. The average cross correlation shows a lag of ~40 days, but the lag may not be the same through the sunspot cycle. The physical explaination is not known, but I like to see it this way: beneath the surface the sunspots grow (invisible). And when they are hit by the periodic 4 month tidal wave, they are uncovered, stirred up, mature, “explode” and fade away. But throuh the sunspot cycle, the speed of this mechanism may change (and I do think it does, allthough I havent analyzed it yet) Here is SC24. It may suggest that the lag is changing, getting shorter. The red tidal cycle is shifted about 40 days to fit the flux-tops. However the two recent flux-tops seem to come earlier, and top about the same time as the tidal cycle. Could mean that there are less spots to uncover, or that they mature faster. Have to wait and see the next month whether flux stays weak, or ramps up again. Here is the previous sunspotcycle 23. This is of course a simplyfied model, and I dont expect the correlation to be perfect all the time (the Sun is a messy place). I do however think there is a nice correlation here as expected. Visually there seems to be a change in lag from around year 2002, where the fluxtops come early… just like now? Could be that there is a pattern of shorter lag as the sunspotcycle tops out…
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Mar 12, 2013 22:42:25 GMT
I suggest that you two, particularly the marketeer, read Nassim Nicholas Taleb, both his professional and popular writings. Of course you recognize the retired quant. Here's his personal website www.fooledbyrandomness.com/some see randomness, other see patterns... Stockmarket cycle (which is a solar cycle) has another top now like last fall, and next low around June Update on solar flux and ~4month planetary tidal cycle: Tidal cycle indicated top around late February, and low in flux around late April. Looks like the top came a bit early, and the correlation is never perfect This is with Mercury added in the equation
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Mar 1, 2013 17:53:50 GMT
ah, finally a Kp=5 Didnt come before the March-April window...
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Feb 24, 2013 8:59:28 GMT
101 days without Kp>4 now that is quite unusual... given that we are at solar maximum
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Jan 7, 2013 13:38:46 GMT
hi france around summer 2013 is my estimate www.sibet.org/solar/index.htmlthe top so far in SC24 seems too early, so we should have another big top or two in 2013. (sorry, wrong thread)
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Jan 5, 2013 9:33:23 GMT
solar activity is rising again, following the tidal cycle This tidal peak is a fairly strong one, and the next one in the summer even stronger. This sunspotcycle is out of phase with the Jupiter-Saturn cycle. Right now the Jupiter-Saturn cycle would favor a new sunspot cycle (if we were not out of phase). So perhaps that explains the high latitude spots, that are normal early in a cycle. See my thread bb
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Dec 17, 2012 13:06:36 GMT
Hi karlox If you look at the tidal variation versus flux (the black moving average) you should see some correlation. Sometimes the correlation is not that good. This is a simplyfied version, excluding the effect of Mercury. Also this is just a part of the picture, because there are bigger cycles that regulate the overall sunspot cycle. But the tidal cycle produces local tops and lows in solar flux Large tidal peaks should have a more noticeable effect than weak tides. Attachments:
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Dec 17, 2012 9:19:27 GMT
tidal cycle is forecasting a low in sunspot here, and should start to rise again in some weeks time
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Nov 27, 2012 16:44:25 GMT
this is the tidal cyclical configuration of themain three sunspotsycle-groups It is all about timing. A new sunspotcycle is triggered by a "kick" from either the 12-year cycle (green and red type) or (per definition) by the 10 year cycle (yellow) So it is interesting that two different cycles can start a new SC but the 11-year cycle cant The initial "kick" must come in the right time. If it comes too early, it will prolong the previous SC. So the previous SC must first die. Also we see that once a SC is triggered, it doesnt need strong cyclical influence to grow (but that will be a weak cycle).
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