solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Feb 27, 2012 3:40:34 GMT
Winter snow-pack has arrived in central Alberta, Canada as of Feb 25th with the first significant snow of the season. This is the 2nd latest start to the winter snow pack that i know of. The #1 latest was Feb 28th 2006 during the 2005/06 season. I can see at least one more major snowfall in the next few weeks, so were making up for the lack of snow during these last 4 weeks of winter.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Oct 21, 2011 18:54:57 GMT
I've found La-nina here in Alberta is better off as strong as possible. The temp vs La-nina here is not exactly linear. With mild and moderate La-nina the temps drop at times below -40C during the winter. But with a strong La-nina things change. It's milder during a strong La-nina than a weaker one due to the very strong jet stream. Alberta is generally socked in cloud, fog, and heavy snow during a strong La-nina and thus the insulating factor of the clouds keeps things from dipping below -40C. Now as for La-nina during the summer. www.youtube.com/watch?v=E26J7mEGj34www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5cSx94vK6M&feature=relatedThats what La-nina does to our summers up here. La-nina summers of late have been muggy, sometimes hot. This of course means very severe thunderstorms. The last multi-year La-nina was 1998-2000 and during the summer of 2000 an F3 tornado killed 12 people here when it slammed into a crowded campground. www.youtube.com/watch?v=pw4atAxVDtMMy area also got hit with 4" hailstones in 1975 during yet another multi-year Enso event Multi El-nino seem to have the same effect. Edmonton got hit by an F4 tornado during the 1986-88 event. Though that could have been Madoki, and not a true el-nino The truth is I can't find too many devastating widespread storms Alberta outside of these extended Enso events. And we also know how La-nina ups the death and destruction in Tornado alley. I would almost say La-nina is more scary to me than El-nino.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Sept 25, 2011 7:47:11 GMT
When you say an early winter are you referring the the populations on the eastern side of the continent, Because Winter is a speck compare to the weather in the west. That Texas heat now extends its way at times well into Canada, A normally crisp September day and it's sweltering in the 80s and 90s. I dare say hot and humid in the Pacific northwest. Almost tropical, right down to the "tropical downpours". Though I do myself predict a severe winter(mild to start, but ending extremely cold), but it will be a late winter in the west. Likely beginning with a blizzard with several feet of snow. Spring I feel will be late and cold in the west. Summer 2012 will see the heat come with a vengeance, From New Mexico to the Yukon, the heat will dominate the west. Areas that spent 2010 and 2011 underwater could go right back to drought conditions. These wild shifts will only get worse.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Sept 24, 2011 23:45:36 GMT
What would be the base value? Do you avg the measurements through the day? 176/190/169 178sfu avg of those 3 readings
Btw is there any real way we can properly measure SFI on days like today with frequent flare activity?
As for the flares were not at the peak of the cycle yet, lets see what activity we get winter and spring 2012,2013 before the judge the cycle. It could easily drop down again in a couple months and not pick up again until next spring. or it could keep going up. Only time will tell. the first one seem likely to me. I would not be surprised if this is the peak of SC24 and it hits this level 4 or 5 more times
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Sept 24, 2011 23:14:19 GMT
Look at at solar flux, it went berserk! 190SFU at Penticton. If this sunspot Continues to put out this activity, combined with the new region coming into view we will most likely the solar flux pass 200. Also it is kind of frightening for the solar flare activity to spend a day with such as high Xray flux overall. It's like the flare does not even have the time to calm down before the next one.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Jun 7, 2011 8:14:55 GMT
Something that started me thinking is the kinds of records we have set or broken here over the last few years. Whether it's for heat, cold, snowfall, or rainfall; Good chunk of them have one thing in common. They were set back in the 1910s during the last period of lowered solar activity. Oddly the kind of weather we get in the event of a "maunder minimum" is actually not what you would expect. While much of the world had cold and wet conditions we actually had the opposite(at least during the summer)
All over the Canadian prairies there are spots filled with sand dunes, these dunes are dated back to the late 1600s. The reason for the severe desertification is because of several reasons.
During solar grand min evaporation is slowed and less of it comes over land and thus can not make it into the interior of the continent. The jet stream shifts keeping major rain systems away. Glaciers are advancing and giving off considerably less melt water, this leads to major rivers running low or drying up. The lack of water or clouds leads to extreme high and low temperatures, 110F during the summer and -70F during the winter. this further increases summer evaporation and the winters are dry and likely get only an inch or two of snow. Not what we expect for "maunder minimum" weather in Alberta? In fact "global warming" increases the moisture, making for warmer winters and COOLER summers.
Also some other epic drought seem to link to a lack of solar activity. Major droughts also hit around 1820, and the more famous 1930s drought. Today the remaining dunes serve as a place to have fun with an ATV or dirt bike, yet we don't realize how they came to be and how the same event that created them may be just decades away
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Jun 5, 2011 20:59:38 GMT
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Jun 4, 2011 7:11:09 GMT
I can't believe it. It's snowing in June. According to local weather stations the last time was 101 years ago, More than a century.
What I can believe is that weather models are garbage. Would you believe were "supposed" to get a hot summer here and yet we get the first June snowfall in 101 years!
I'm starting to think the sun is the boss around here.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on May 20, 2011 8:14:06 GMT
May 2011 trending toward a dip, thus making March and April a "spike in solar activity. Currently I'm Predicting May 2011 values will be much lower than the last two months. Avg solar flux: 95 Avg SSN: 37
A notable drop form the spike over the last few months. The conditions into and though the summer will reveal if we will enter another spike right away or limbo for a few months. I feel the rise to the solar max is very important, SC 24 is one of the most "unexpected" cycles in history. It will teach us a great deal about how the sun works as our "old" knowledge lead us to think this weak cycle was going to be hyperactive. May 10th was the first time the flux fell below 100 since march 2nd. It ended a 69 day long stretch of 100 or higher solar flux.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on May 17, 2011 20:26:16 GMT
In the last year major disasters such as hurricanes, fires, and flood have ravaged Canadians in an unusual spike in calamity. In 2010 devastating Prairie floods an Atlantic hurricanes made headlines. 2011 is worse; With more floods on The prairies and eastern Canada. The forests in Northern Alberta are on fire, burning through towns in their path. Considering how few disasters have hit during years past it is concerning that this can only get worse. I've been watching the weather and it gets more bizarre with each week. An arctic block is in place, though normal during the winter is unheard of in the summer months. The scary part is the same type of blocking was responsible for the chaos last year in much of Europe and Asia. www.torontosun.com/2011/04/25/manitoba-flooding-wont-be-over-any-time-soonwww.vancouversun.com/Fires+blaze+around+devastated+Slave+Lake+Alta/4797633/story.html
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on May 4, 2011 8:26:48 GMT
I have to say that the only cycle that makes sense to me is solar cycle 3. Ignore the numbers for now. SC3 started slow and then revved into maximum very quickly. Just before the sun went pedal to the metal one would think that SC3 would have been a slower cycle Though Sc24 had been delayed quite a bit longer than sc3 To compare if sc24 is alike were sitting at May 1777(remember ignore the numbers) Just tone down the number quite a bit and I can see it being sc24, say by about 50 sunspots less. Peaking right away at around 110 sunspots and than slowly calming down. The peak I think may be even earlier. But I'd say as early as Nov 2011 or as late as Jan 2013. The big key would be if and how much we come down from the current spike. May and June should reveal this. Even so we simply do not have a large enough database to compare Sc24 to, it could turn out awkward and bonked. Who know what cycles have come and gone in the suns billions of years of existence. I should just for the fun of it make a few "charts" of outrageous possible solar cycles. After all we know from the maunder that our sun can pull anything off
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Apr 27, 2011 8:00:33 GMT
So far April is turning out similar to March in terms of overall activity. Solar flux so far 113. Spot count so far 57 Taking into account the difference between the 81(this site) and 56(prediction chart) ssn from March into account BTW where can I actually get that sunspot number, I can only seem to find the higher of the two
a new region is growing and a few new regions will rotate into view in the next few days. Thus activity will increase towards the end of the month
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Apr 14, 2011 4:10:25 GMT
Sunspot number for today is 153. A new high for the cycle. Count is high probably due to dense clusters of tiny spots. Also a note, the last lull in activity did not see the solar flux go below 100. This new could be very high.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Apr 5, 2011 0:49:14 GMT
The sun unpredictable fiery ball. It will only loosely follow its own cycles.
The sun seems to follow it's 11 year cycles like clockwork, Well the Maunder minimum stopped that did it not?
Much like the weather on earth hardly follows the climate often times.
Ever thought About the suns own "El-Nino" or other variable that may mess with the normal rhythm of solar activity?
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Apr 3, 2011 8:16:10 GMT
I noticed that Cycle 14 still has a gradual warm up into it's max. it does have spikes but non really in the beginning. Though it does top my list of cycles to compare too. 2011 will be the year we know what SC24 is like. The coming months will show what we are in for. Will things level off or drop like SC14, to continue to go up rapidly. Time will tell i guess I put the March 2011 values on the chart and I get this Sunspot spike by Stormlover87, on Flickr solar spike by Stormlover87, on Flickr As you can see Solar cycle 24 has already announced it's uniqueness among the other 23 cycles. The chart shows: Cycle 24 slowly warming up after a long minimum, then suddenly skyrockets to from the 20s to the 50s in one month. It seems that Solar cycle 24 may have a similar warm-up to solar cycle 3, just quite a bit weaker. The chart show this quite well. If so we may just meet that forecast peak.
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