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Post by thermostat on Aug 12, 2013 4:27:41 GMT
One thing I've learned is not to anticipate an early end to the melt season. Just sayin'. Interesting comment woodstove. Right now I'm figuring that Arctic Sea Ice Area this year will turn out to be much higher than recent years. From my perspective, 2013 shows that the behavior of the ice has not gone past the point where weather doesn't matter (sometimes called the tipping point). It was dang cold up there this summer, and the weather consistently had the effect of reducing the melt. Can this change 'late in the fourth quarter?' Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it. I would speculate that 2013 sea ice extent will end up around 5.5 to 5.0 sq km. That is not to say that the ice has abruptly 'recovered'. The ice will end up in a condition nothing like it used to be. It has lost a huge amount of volume that is not being replenished. And the heating of the Arctic has changed the weather. But, we will see.
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Post by thermostat on Aug 10, 2013 3:21:49 GMT
Following up on the Arctic Weather report from the other day, first off, Iceskator, you have demonstrated quite convincingly by your comments that you are a total moron. I suggest that you get a clue; and good luck, bro.
Meanwhile, reality continues to occur in the Arctic. That is reality, not ideology. What we are observing is sea ice behavour in an unusually cold summer. (See the chart in the post above).
The weather pattern this summer has been unusually conducive to Arctic Sea Ice retention. For example, there has been next to no ice export via the Fram Strait, as persistent low pressure has dominated the Arctic. What is of interest to those who are actually curious, is what this summer is telling us about how the system works.
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Post by thermostat on Aug 8, 2013 4:05:55 GMT
Most interestingly, yet another Arctic Storm is currently happening up there, the third one his summer!
The question is, so what? hmmm.
To flash back, it used to be that summer weather determined how much Arctic Sea Ice would melt. Then more recently, a whole bunch of ice melted in a big hurry, and the weather did not appear to matter so much. Now, in 2013 weather seems to be a big deal again.
It's August now and people want to know, "what's up!". Fair enough. The ice took a severe hit over multiple years. Today's ice is not what it used to be (smart money is not putting money down in Vegas on 'big ice').
Summer 2013 has shown that weather still matters regarding the Arctic Sea Ice. It will be most interesting to see how the ice cover responds to the current weather pattern.
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Post by thermostat on Aug 3, 2013 4:36:13 GMT
I gather that denialists on the forum are going crazy that there is a relatively cold summer going on in the Arctic this year. This is what scientists call 'weather'. Back in 1970 a year like 2013 would have been quite something.
Calm down bros. As exciting as a relatively cold year is, it's what weather is like.
The current changes in the Jet Stream ought to be inducing discussion, but perhaps this forum is not the best place.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 27, 2013 4:33:42 GMT
As the 2013 melt progresses, it is clear that temperatures in the Arctic have been low this season.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 25, 2013 5:10:54 GMT
Reality check update, the present Arctic Storm has probably reached its maximum, but will persist for a day or two more. Here is the latest IJIS graph, www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htmThe unknown is what happens next. How different is the present ice from the 20th century standard? How different are present conditions from back then?
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Post by thermostat on Jul 23, 2013 2:43:12 GMT
Just a quick post, it looks like another summer cyclone is about to form in the Arctic, www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html click through the N Hem 500hPa,SLP links. As everyone recalls, last summer a similar weather event made a big impact. The impending storm is happening earlier this year, and appears to be likely to exert its strongest effects more toward the pole than last year. Undoubtably there will be discussion about this weather event, so heads up.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 16, 2013 4:08:28 GMT
Following the 2013 Arctic Sea Ice melt, recent obsevations show a sharp drop in sea ice extent www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htmWhile this observed melting is consistent with the measured thinness of the ice sheet, the weather in 2013 has clearly been, 'none of the above' in comparison with recent years. One conspicuous difference has been the almost complete abscence of export of sea ice via the Fram Strait this year. If ice is going to melt up there, it will have to melt in situ this year. Realistically, here in mid-July, it looks like an ice recovery year at this mid point. The melt should be less than last year, maybe close to 2007.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 14, 2013 5:55:05 GMT
Just a reality check, high pressure has in fact built up over the Western Arctic. In combination, observed sea ice area and extent values have dropped.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 12, 2013 5:29:51 GMT
It may be more serious than that thermos? We have seen sea ice areas that once nurtured ice turn into the exact opposite and now we may be seeing weather patterns that used to 'help' maintain ice levels now helping denature the winter ice into a form easily destroyed by short spells of warmth ( weather certainly not uncommon over the Arctic summer even beyond 80N?) The upcoming flip in the AO to something more like what have have become accustomed , post 07', will give us a proper chance to both see large areas of the basin and how quickly the ice is responding to the sun's input? Some of that mangled ice reminds me of the ice left on the Beaufort side after GAC12 and we all saw what a couple of days sun did to that? We are a good 3 weeks closer to peak insolation than that ice so can we dare hope it will maintain or do we concede we have further large losses to come over very short spans. How will many of the posters here respond to 2013 reaching parity with 2012? Even now we are hearing how ice levels will 'maintain' this year and not fall into the top 3 lowest years? The other major point to remember is that both 2011 and 2012 were 'average' weather years ( unlike 07' which, as we all know, was a 'perfect Storm' of melt conditions). This year has seen the 'mix ' of weather favour a very slow melt start but all that time the ice was being conditioned, in the central 'hard to melt' area of the pole, for rapid melt. The other Areas that we have become accustomed to melting out completely may be a tad slower this year but past years has seen then with open water for over 4 weeks of the season? The 'records' do not look to 'time' but merely 'open water'? EDIT: Well that did not take long? 2013 just did another 'million week' so now pips 07' for the record with it's current 7 weeks worth of 1 million losses. graywolf, It is quite obvious to anyone with an open mind that the condition of the Arctic Sea Ice has fundamentally changed over the past 10+ years. Obviously, there is a lot less total ice up there than there used to be. A lot of ice has melted, thus, given physics, a lot of heat has been added to the system. (That's just physics.) Now, as you point out, the system has been altered and it now behaves in a different way than what has been observed before. We are currently observing that in real time as the 2013 melt progresses. The melt year started out with unusual low temperatures and unusual low pressure systems over the Arctic Sea. Historically, one would expect to finish such a year with highly extensive sea ice area and extent. In contrast, the present 2013 outcome, as we pass the middle of the melt, is totally unclear. We just observed how weather affected the early melt. Weather will continue to be important. The effect of ice thickness will be interesting to see next.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 8, 2013 4:58:31 GMT
Given the reduced volume of the Artic Sea Ice, the issue in 2013 is how will this ice respond. Does the weather still even matter?
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Post by thermostat on Jul 8, 2013 4:31:11 GMT
The impending development of a persistent high pressure system over the Western Arctic Ocean appears to be of signifance. See the 500hPa,SLP tab under the N-Hem option at www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.htmlGiven the thin, fragmented nature of the Arctic Sea Ice, weather that is actually conducive to sea ice melt is of particular interest.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 6, 2013 3:32:27 GMT
Looks like the melt in the Arctic is picking up. The high pressure systems moving in are of interest; July will be an interesting month. I agree Thermostat. My 3.7 may be high as I stated previously. sigurdur, Given the slow start to this year's melt, I would not be suprised with relatively high final sea ice extent measure. What I find to be of most interest this year is the detailed coverage and interpretation of Arctic weather.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 6, 2013 2:39:33 GMT
Looks like the melt in the Arctic is picking up.
The high pressure systems moving in are of interest; July will be an interesting month.
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Post by thermostat on Jun 30, 2013 3:44:39 GMT
So, whatever, we get to the end of June 2013 and people wonder what is up with the Arctic Sea Ice. Excellent question. Answer is time will tell. How much ice is up there? How much heat is in the water? From current data, www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm the ice just melted a whole bunch, look at teh numbers, "http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv"
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