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Post by douglavers on Jun 7, 2018 13:18:43 GMT
I seem to recall reading that air temperatures lag the sea temperatures by 2-3 months.
On that basis, some interesting satellite temperatures should be seen by the end of this year.
I wonder what comments will/might be made if the planetary temperature anomaly goes negative?
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Post by acidohm on Jun 7, 2018 13:55:18 GMT
I seem to recall reading that air temperatures lag the sea temperatures by 2-3 months. On that basis, some interesting satellite temperatures should be seen by the end of this year. I wonder what comments will/might be made if the planetary temperature anomaly goes negative? It'll prob result in weak excuses and take 3/4 years to filter down to the general public.
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 7, 2018 16:05:23 GMT
I seem to recall reading that air temperatures lag the sea temperatures by 2-3 months. On that basis, some interesting satellite temperatures should be seen by the end of this year. I wonder what comments will/might be made if the planetary temperature anomaly goes negative? It'll prob result in weak excuses and take 3/4 years to filter down to the general public. It will be just what the models forecast and mean that we have only {name a time period} to save the planet.
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 23, 2018 9:51:55 GMT
Considering that it is Northern Hemisphere summer - these temperatures look a little cooler than I would expect. Note that while in absolute terms there is obviously a western Pacific warm pool, in anomaly terms it is normal - not the set up you would expect if there is to be an El Nino shortly. Also the mid-Atlantic temperatures still seem low and we are in hurricane season - perhaps it will be quiet this year.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 11, 2018 23:49:18 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 13, 2018 23:09:30 GMT
An interesting comment on ENSO in WUWT that supports Theo's forecast of no ENSO until after 2020. Interestingly he seems to be using something not dissimilar to Theo's methodology (although he would no doubt swear otherwise ) "This means that 2020 marks a transitional between consecutive 31-year lunar tidal epochs and during these 9.0-year time span it is possible for moderate to strong El Ninos to take place when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Equinoxes or the times of the Solstices. Hence, between about 2016 and 2025, I cannot be completely sure which of these two possibilities can occur.
There is nothing I can do about the uncertainty in predicting the start of EL Nino events in this time period (i.e. 2016 to 2025) until we have a better understanding of the mechanism involved." wattsupwiththat.com/2018/07/12/conditions-for-formation-of-super-el-ninos-determined/#comment-2403511
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Post by Ratty on Jul 14, 2018 0:45:45 GMT
An interesting comment on ENSO in WUWT that supports Theo's forecast of no ENSO until after 2020. Interestingly he seems to be using something not dissimilar to Theo's methodology (although he would no doubt swear otherwise ) "This means that 2020 marks a transitional between consecutive 31-year lunar tidal epochs and during these 9.0-year time span it is possible for moderate to strong El Ninos to take place when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Equinoxes or the times of the Solstices. Hence, between about 2016 and 2025, I cannot be completely sure which of these two possibilities can occur.
There is nothing I can do about the uncertainty in predicting the start of EL Nino events in this time period (i.e. 2016 to 2025) until we have a better understanding of the mechanism involved." wattsupwiththat.com/2018/07/12/conditions-for-formation-of-super-el-ninos-determined/#comment-2403511Articulate piece ....
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Post by acidohm on Jul 17, 2018 17:44:48 GMT
Nina was over the winter.
What your looking at is warming v cooling temps. Particularly subsurface where they're above average now, but were going below average last year.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 17, 2018 22:14:12 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 18, 2018 2:13:04 GMT
I think it would be difficult to find precise analogs as at the same time as the weather patterns we also have a weak Sun.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 18, 2018 2:46:57 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Jul 18, 2018 4:09:05 GMT
So ...... you needn't have wasted time posting that? Bookmarked, in case you lose it again.
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 18, 2018 4:10:07 GMT
We gave GW a lot of stick for his perpetual predictions based on trivial wiggles. they were a little overheated, but he had a position I believe ideology was the basis.
The same way a little ice growth makes not a trend, it may, but the probabilistic map will still only be slightly nudged at this stage. Lets keep our fingers crossed that Marxist poverty is not the next human phase and we can live in the shadow of capitalist wealth and well-being to all.
I am not sure there are enough electric buses to throw the poor under if that outcome were to come to pass.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 18, 2018 4:13:05 GMT
So ...... you needn't have wasted time posting that? Bookmarked, in case you lose it again. I looked for ND and couldn't find it. I thought sea levels were rising!
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 18, 2018 8:07:39 GMT
We gave GW a lot of stick for his perpetual predictions based on trivial wiggles. they were a little overheated, but he had a position I believe ideology was the basis. The same way a little ice growth makes not a trend, it may, but the probabilistic map will still only be slightly nudged at this stage. Lets keep our fingers crossed that Marxist poverty is not the next human phase and we can live in the shadow of capitalist wealth and well-being to all. I am not sure there are enough electric buses to throw the poor under if that outcome were to come to pass. Quite right Non. We should not get carried away. But what makes this exciting is that we might actually live to see scientific results that return "climate science" to a semblance of ... dare I say it ... science (cough). And if it comes to pass that the masses can rejoice that their terminal cancer diagnosis was botched by a bunch of ideological lab rats, we can only hope that it is not replaced by a pestilence that may not be cured for 30 years. My pastor assures me that it would be bad Christian form to buy tickets for the hangings ... but perhaps he would forgive me a slight wish that the most heinous offenders be sentenced to a street corner, a tin cup and a loose-boweled monkey astride their head. But first the science, and the hope that I'm not one of the heinous offenders. Here, the next election cycle may tell whether the masses have eaten a deadly amount of the Marxist bait.
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