meemoe_uk's SC-UAH theory Dec 7, 2010 10:22:50 GMT
Post by meemoeuk on Dec 7, 2010 10:22:50 GMT
The idea is the solar cycle is causal to the UAH data.
Roughly a few months after solar minimum, between 2 non-equal solar cycles, a transition bump appears on the UAH graph.
Each solar cycle causes a different average temp on the UAH graph for the solar cycle lifetime ( i.e around 9 to 11 years )
In this theory, the 1998 bump that is usually attributed to super el-nino, is instead attributed to SC22-23 transition.
The current bump is attributed to SC23-24 transition.
There was no significant bump for SC21-22 because those SCs were effectively equal in length and amplitude.
- Since SC25 is expected to be simular to SC24 - no transition bump.
- Likely a new UAH average temperature over the next 10-16 years attributed to SC24 and SC25.
short term prediction
- The UAH temp will continue it's recent fall, and form a dip like the 2008 dip, so the 2008-2012 period will have a complete single 360 wave pattern. Simular to the 1998 high, which also has such dips either side of the high.
Notice the current UAH high bump is more drawn out than the 1998 one. This corrisponds to the longer solar cycle 23-24 transistion, so compounds this theory.
The SC23 UAH average was higher than SC21 and SC22, even though SC23 was a weaker cycle.
Weaker cycle -> higher UAH temp?
To explain this via cosmic ray water cloud seeding theory, I've supported the idea that faster water cycles shifts the Earth's surface heat to the oceans, while the land cools. Since oceans cover most of the surface, the UAH graph goes up, while it gets distinctly cold on land.