China, Energy, and Go

[curiousgeorge]

Jan 22, 2011 0:38:33 GMT sigurdur said:

George:
What is so sad is that no one in power seems to understand this Go play at all. I am talking the business community as well. Warren Buffet has talked about it and the ramifications, but people discredit him for doing so. There is a reason he is called "The Oracle"..........

I do know that China is gleefull with our military expenditures as that is a HUGE go play for them. We must seem like placent sheep lead to the slaughter to them.

There is a saying: "Never interrupt your opponent when he is making a mistake."

That said, I think China is likely pleased with our distractions in Afghanistan, etc., but they do know that we still outgun them militarily/technologically, so they will not confront us on that basis. But I think you may be overstating it. There are very few "Huge" Go plays. Remember the flowing water analogy.

Attack where the opponent is weak.

We are weak in the financial sector, and that is one area where they are focusing at this time. The yuan will be an international currency soon, on par with the dollar as a global reserve currency.

We are weak in the manufacturing sector as well, having off shored many industries in the last 20 years.

We have grown weak in the educational sector, which bodes ill for future innovation and competitive business strength.

We are spending much effort on "clean energy" and other eco agendas, and at the same time crippling our domestic conventional energy industry to our detriment. This while China is gobbling up every natural resource they can lay their hands on including oil in the GoM, the oil sands in Canada, and the coal mines in Australia to fuel their double digit growth rate.

From what I can deduce the game remains in the negotiation stage for a while yet, but we are in a very poor strategic position, and it will be difficult to overcome that in the next few years.

China has it's share of weaknesses also, namely a massive population that may yet rebel, but we have not (that I know of) tried to take advantage of those, being content to wag fingers at them for human rights issues, or plead for them to "do something" about N. Korea.

Are you familiar with Sonshi.com? www.sonshi.com/index.html . I don't participate on their forums, but do read quite bit.

[sigurdur]

Thank you George. I had not known about that forum, but will read it as time permits. I am a history buff.....(in case you haven't noticed when it comes to AGW and calamity).

Yes, China has weaknesses as well. Their main weakness is providing enough food for the population. They haven't invested heavily in the US ag industry, as they don't have to do that. They have HUGE investments in Brazil, which from my understanding will mature in another 10-15 years. That has been mentioned in ag papers as something to prepare for as a large "what was thought of as cornered" maket may disappear. We are financing our own demise with the balance of trade so out of whack. They are using our dollars to undermine our posititions. Quit an amazing play when one thinks of it.....and extremely well thought out. A very patient society that seemingly is looking 20-50 years forward.