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Post by france on Feb 15, 2011 17:13:56 GMT
I think about anomaly Dr Leif Svalgaard notices with the SC25 which could be higher he was expected before what happens on north hemispher : I read about a astrophysical law call 'GO' which could disturb SC. I don't know exactly what is it, something like each odd or even cycle something happens like "an anomaly".
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Post by davidwild on Feb 15, 2011 17:15:41 GMT
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 15, 2011 17:19:53 GMT
It would be interesting to see a table of historical M and X class flares (ordered by magnitude) that produced earthbound CME's, along with the maximum Kp they produced. Any ideas anyone? We studied this question some time ago: www.leif.org/research/1859%20Storm%20-%20Extreme%20Space%20Weather.pdfThe current storm is not of a magnitude that compares with the real 'superstorms'. Much depends on the orientation of the magnetic field. From the polarities of the spots I would guess the field would be northwards at the leading edge followed by weak southward several hours later, so the storm would start small and perhaps stay small: Kp = 5-6. |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 15, 2011 17:30:23 GMT
I don't think there's a lot of correlation between solar flux and CME's. CME's happen when there is a sufficiently dense plasma filament suspended over a solar flare explosion site. And of course not all CME's impact the Earth. So I would expect a low correlation to start with. But having said that, if that data is all in the same format, it wouldn't take much effort to build an automated experiment to serve as a feasibility study. Actually I would enjoy building such an experiment, but I don't have the time now to spend on it. Maybe in a few months. |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 15, 2011 18:21:33 GMT
@vuk
Two comments:
1) Unlike the electron flux and H-field sensors, the proton sensor seems to still be working OK.
2) The energetic protons (>10Mev) have peaked and are starting to decline.
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 15, 2011 18:27:39 GMT
Yes, the region has now rotated enough to the west that we are beginning to be in magnetic field lines connected back to the site. |
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Post by davidwild on Feb 15, 2011 19:13:02 GMT
lsvalgaard thank you, this is really good information. Your paper will be my bedtime reading tonight!
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 15, 2011 19:54:55 GMT
Yes, the region has now rotated enough to the west that we are beginning to be in magnetic field lines connected back to the site. Agree: magnetic field lines connected back to the site Has been a known fact since 1963, so good you are up-to-date. |
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Post by guigui1984 on Feb 15, 2011 20:35:00 GMT
Strong C-class flare in progress (Now is a C6.6) !
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ea8ay
New Member
Posts: 2
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Post by ea8ay on Feb 15, 2011 20:56:11 GMT
Hello please only one question, what can we wait in hf propagation for next weekend in arrl dx cw???, ???thanks a lot!
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Post by Bob k6tr on Feb 15, 2011 21:56:38 GMT
Hello please only one question, what can we wait in hf propagation for next weekend in arrl dx cw???, ???thanks a lot! Ha Ha If it were only that simple. Much depends on the impending storm. How big it is and how long it will last. There are to many variables to say for sure right now. The only certainty is that conditions will be better on Day 2. We will have a better idea in 48 hours. |
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Post by Bob k6tr on Feb 15, 2011 22:11:33 GMT
Region 1161 is growing at a very rapid rate.
It's Magnetic Structure is now classified as Beta.
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Post by rangertab1 on Feb 15, 2011 22:24:12 GMT
Below is a link to a sampling of flare data for 2005. Not sure if this accurately classifies the flares (i.e. 7 Sep shows an X170  ) That is off the charts, so I am asking a question to you all. Is this NOAA data what one could use to determine the number of flares in years past, as well as their official classification? Take a look and teach me, please. ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_FLARES/FLARES_XRAY/2005/xray2005Thanks.  |
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ea8ay
New Member
Posts: 2
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Post by ea8ay on Feb 15, 2011 22:40:03 GMT
Bob thanks this is a good news for me  |
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N9AAT
Level 3 Rank
DON'T PANIC
Posts: 153
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Post by N9AAT on Feb 15, 2011 22:44:51 GMT
Oh yeahhhhh ;D I've been waiting for this one. I think I've gotten a few of the FAA engineers fired up on this issue of mag storms affecting NAVAID facilities. Maybe now we'll get some data. The movie on the homepage is awesome OMG! I didn't know the sun could DO that! BTW, I was listening to Radio Taiwan last night on 5950 when the X-Thing hit. I thought they were having studio problems. They went on and off the air absolutely immediately! There was no fading or anything! One minute they were there, then for 10-20 seconds they were ... gone. Happened several times but I didn't know what it was until I saw the report of the X2.2 today. Wow! |
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) That is off the charts, so I am asking a question to you all.
