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Post by af4ex on Feb 22, 2011 14:44:48 GMT
Looks like activity is trending down for awhile. But there's hope for more action just beyond the eastern horizon. My favorite regions are returning: I) The North Polar CH seems to be reforming. II) The big CH from last rotation is still there (shrunk a bit) III) Old, old 1130/1133 still active-looking IV) That old filament cavity is still there (barely) Hopefully this region will reverse the trend when it rotates into view soon.  Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Feb 22, 2011 16:36:19 GMT
Kevin or Bob,
I see you have changed the front page layout, mainly to add the ACE readouts, which is fine.
But we lost the GOES SXI x-ray image, which was useful for seeing the current hot-spots, especially new ones, when they're forming and still very small (or "pre-glow" on the farside).
EUV 171A/195A imagery doesn't quite match the effectiveness of x-ray imagery in this respect.
At least put a clickable link to bring it up from the front page.
My two cents, FWIW. :-|
Thanks!
John/af4ex
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Post by Kevin VE3EN on Feb 22, 2011 17:10:20 GMT
If you click the link called "Expand to see more Images" under the two SDO images on main page.. you will find the GOES-15 SXI image in that location.
Kevin
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Post by af4ex on Feb 22, 2011 17:45:09 GMT
@kevin
> If you click the link called "Expand to see more Images" ....
Ok. I thought that was just for SDO imagery. I'm happy again.
;D
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 23, 2011 1:45:48 GMT
Looks like activity is trending down for awhile. But there's hope for more action just beyond the eastern horizon. My favorite regions are returning: I) The North Polar CH seems to be reforming. it will be of intense interest to see what polarity it has. My wild guess is that it has reversed polarity. |
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Post by Bob k6tr on Feb 23, 2011 5:44:25 GMT
Looks like activity is trending down for awhile. But there's hope for more action just beyond the eastern horizon. My favorite regions are returning: I) The North Polar CH seems to be reforming. it will be of intense interest to see what polarity it has. My wild guess is that it has reversed polarity. "wild guess" huh. Leif, I' ve never known you to be the Guessin type of guy. Me thinks you have some inside info !  |
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bradk
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Post by bradk on Feb 23, 2011 12:05:58 GMT
Leif-
If the polarity has reversed, how close does that put us to mid-cycle?
Bob-
Leif never guesses, he is actually the man behind the curtain running the place.
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 23, 2011 13:36:39 GMT
Leif- If the polarity has reversed, how close does that put us to mid-cycle? Bob- Leif never guesses, he is actually the man behind the curtain running the place. Mid-cycle would be upon us in a year or so [the South hasn't reversed yet].... |
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bradk
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Post by bradk on Feb 23, 2011 18:40:09 GMT
Leif- If the polarity has reversed, how close does that put us to mid-cycle? Bob- Leif never guesses, he is actually the man behind the curtain running the place. Mid-cycle would be upon us in a year or so [the South hasn't reversed yet].... Isn't that significantly earlier than Hathaway and others have it? |
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bradk
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Post by bradk on Feb 23, 2011 18:40:41 GMT
af4ex-
Will we get a zero sunspot day before it heats back up?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 23, 2011 21:01:14 GMT
Mid-cycle would be upon us in a year or so [the South hasn't reversed yet].... Isn't that significantly earlier than Hathaway and others have it? yes, and also earlier than I would have thought some months ago. Now, this is still just a wild guess. My reasoning is as follows: The reversal of the polar fields take place in a sequence of 'jerks' or surges of flux coming up from lower latitudes: obs.astro.ucla.edu/torsional.htmlThe first few surges serve to cancel out the old flux, the rest to build the new polarity which determines the size of the next cycle. We have just seen that the very first surge of cycle 24 in the North has already cancelled out the old flux [granted that there wasn't much to begin with]. If several more surges follow [as they usually do], the North polar fields might build to considerable strength [with SC25 then becoming strong, contrary to expectation]. The South seems to be a year or so behind. If mid-cycle is when the poles reverse it can't be far away...
Remember, you heard it first here ;D |
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bradk
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Post by bradk on Feb 23, 2011 21:19:28 GMT
Leif-
Now I know why I think you are actually the man behind the curtain running the sun...
How does that fit in with L & P, namely will we have an active sun and few sunspots or does the L & P effect reverse and we get more spots - in SC25?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 23, 2011 21:34:40 GMT
Leif- Now I know why I think you are actually the man behind the curtain running the sun... How does that fit in with L & P, namely will we have an active sun and few sunspots or does the L & P effect reverse and we get more spots - in SC25? another wild guess: the L&P effect will continue, so SC25 may actually see fewer spots, but its activity [e.g. as measured by F10.7] will be larger than SC24. But, all of this is just speculation, but speculation often suggests things to look at or investigate and is, in addition, fun. |
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bradk
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Post by bradk on Feb 23, 2011 22:05:56 GMT
That is, to me, the very deifnition of hard science versus soft science. Using logoc to develop testable hypothesis on the front end, and then awaiting the data to prove you wrong or not. Soft science requires logical testing on the back end as well, and to me, then is not "real" science as there is human thought and intervention influencing the data analysis.
That said, their is nothing inherently wrong with soft science, it is just a different beast.
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Post by af4ex on Feb 24, 2011 1:37:07 GMT
We're already picking up some "preglow" in x-ray, and even in microwaves, from the farside. So I'll raise my expectations and say that the hidden region is very active! :-| Attachments:
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