Solar Cycle 24 Main Discussion X

[france]

Mar 5, 2011 1:20:38 GMT Bob k6tr said:

Mar 4, 2011 22:18:45 GMT france said:

OK, like Dr Svalgaard says it's just the begining of the real rise. Today value is 127.

I noticed the peak happened exactly one year after the last first peak on 2/12/2010.

I don't understand very well why you speak about "the link between the timing of the reversal and the broad of the peak"

France there are a few items here.

As I mentioned in the previous post we are now 26 months past Solar minimum. Big Cycles are short ones. Three of the largest Cycles in recent history are Cycle 22 which peaked at a SSN of 157 Spots, Cycle 21 which peaked at a SSN of 165 and Cycle 19 which peaked at a SSN of 200. The rise time for Cycle 19 was 30 months, the rise time for Cycle 21 was 40 months while the rise time for Cycle 22 was 27 months.

Cycle 23 was an "Average Cycle" which had 2 peaks. The first peak occurred at 48 months while the second peak occurred at 70 months. Cycles with multiple peaks are not uncommon among average or weak cycles but never seen among big ones. Check out: www.solen.info/solar/cycl1_20.html . So it appears that at least one criterea for a big Solar Cycle is synchronization between the sun's northern and southern hemispheres.

To say that we have now only entered the rapid rise portion of the cycle is to imply this cycle will be very long indeed. And if the peak does occur in May 2013, as many are predicting, that will mean the rise phase of Cycle 24 will last 53 months. I tend to disagree with Leif that Cycle 24 will follow the form of Cycle 14 which had 4 distinct peaks. But there will be 2 peaks much like Cycle 23 and the period between the 2 peaks will be equal to the lag factor of the Solar Southern Hemisphere meaning at least a year and possibly as long as 18 months. As to the SSN numbers at those peaks I don't have the foggiest idea. The harder I look the more muddy that picture becomes.

Thanks Bob now it's clearer (I think it's not the good grammatical expression I mean "more clear"

Is Dr Svalgaard agree with your vision ?

[lsvalgaard]

Mar 5, 2011 15:05:19 GMT france said:

Mar 5, 2011 1:20:38 GMT Bob k6tr said:

France there are a few items here.

As I mentioned in the previous post we are now 26 months past Solar minimum. Big Cycles are short ones. Three of the largest Cycles in recent history are Cycle 22 which peaked at a SSN of 157 Spots, Cycle 21 which peaked at a SSN of 165 and Cycle 19 which peaked at a SSN of 200. The rise time for Cycle 19 was 30 months, the rise time for Cycle 21 was 40 months while the rise time for Cycle 22 was 27 months.

Cycle 23 was an "Average Cycle" which had 2 peaks. The first peak occurred at 48 months while the second peak occurred at 70 months. Cycles with multiple peaks are not uncommon among average or weak cycles but never seen among big ones. Check out: www.solen.info/solar/cycl1_20.html . So it appears that at least one criterea for a big Solar Cycle is synchronization between the sun's northern and southern hemispheres.

To say that we have now only entered the rapid rise portion of the cycle is to imply this cycle will be very long indeed. And if the peak does occur in May 2013, as many are predicting, that will mean the rise phase of Cycle 24 will last 53 months. I tend to disagree with Leif that Cycle 24 will follow the form of Cycle 14 which had 4 distinct peaks. But there will be 2 peaks much like Cycle 23 and the period between the 2 peaks will be equal to the lag factor of the Solar Southern Hemisphere meaning at least a year and possibly as long as 18 months. As to the SSN numbers at those peaks I don't have the foggiest idea. The harder I look the more muddy that picture becomes.

Thanks Bob now it's clearer (I think it's not the good grammatical expression I mean "more clear"

Is Dr Svalgaard agree with your vision ?

I count many than four peaks:

The red curve is the unphysical smoothed SSN. Select another smoothing method and the red curve is different.

[sunspotboy]

New Sunspot Theory

Is there anybody smart enough to comment on this theory?

The Sun’s Eleven Year Magnetic Reversal Theory

1. Introduction

The presented theory in this draft document uses the speed of the rotating magnetic fields of the Sun in order to calculate the magnetic field activity of the Sun and the number of sunspots which appear on the Sun’s surface. A sunspot is a place on the Sun’s surface which is characterized by a very strong magnetic field. Therefore, the number of the sunspots on the Sun is a good indicator of the intensity of the overall Sun’s magnetic activity. It is well-known that the magnetic field of the Sun peaks every eleven years, a cycle known as the sunspot cycle. At the peak of magnetic activity, the sun records maxima of sunspot numbers on its surface. It should be noted that the length of the sunspot cycle is not always exactly eleven years, to the contrary, it varies as discussed by Mursula and Ulich (1).

The presented theory tries to achieve the following (non-exhaustive) goals:

- To successfully calculate the length of the sunspot cycle based on the variability of the speeds of the Sun’s magnetic fields as found by Callebaut (2)

- To be able to calculate the speeds of the polar magnetic fields based on the sunspot cycle length and the equatorial speed

- To successfully calculate the varying hemispherical number of sunspots during each sunspot cycle

- To calculate the positive and negative polarity of the sunspots

- To depict the polar magnetic reversal event
:
tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/03/05/patrick-geryl-the-sun%e2%80%99s-eleven-year-magnetic-reversal/

[lsvalgaard]

Mar 5, 2011 17:42:02 GMT sunspotboy said:

New Sunspot Theory

Is there anybody smart enough to comment on this theory?

The Sun’s Eleven Year Magnetic Reversal Theory

1. Introduction

The presented theory in this draft document uses the speed of the rotating magnetic fields of the Sun in order to calculate the magnetic field activity of the Sun and the number of sunspots which appear on the Sun’s surface. A sunspot is a place on the Sun’s surface which is characterized by a very strong magnetic field. Therefore, the number of the sunspots on the Sun is a good indicator of the intensity of the overall Sun’s magnetic activity. It is well-known that the magnetic field of the Sun peaks every eleven years, a cycle known as the sunspot cycle. At the peak of magnetic activity, the sun records maxima of sunspot numbers on its surface. It should be noted that the length of the sunspot cycle is not always exactly eleven years, to the contrary, it varies as discussed by Mursula and Ulich (1).

The presented theory tries to achieve the following (non-exhaustive) goals:

- To successfully calculate the length of the sunspot cycle based on the variability of the speeds of the Sun’s magnetic fields as found by Callebaut (2)

- To be able to calculate the speeds of the polar magnetic fields based on the sunspot cycle length and the equatorial speed

- To successfully calculate the varying hemispherical number of sunspots during each sunspot cycle

- To calculate the positive and negative polarity of the sunspots

- To depict the polar magnetic reversal event
:
tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/03/05/patrick-geryl-the-sun%e2%80%99s-eleven-year-magnetic-reversal/

makes no sense to me. perhaps someone could express the central idea.

[THEO BAKALEXIS]

Fix a video with active region 11166 activity.

What ta hell is that thing inside the video guys.

I never have seen this before.

www.solar-007.eu/site/

[Bob k6tr]

Mar 5, 2011 15:22:09 GMT lsvalgaard said:

Mar 5, 2011 15:05:19 GMT france said:

Thanks Bob now it's clearer (I think it's not the good grammatical expression I mean "more clear"

Is Dr Svalgaard agree with your vision ?

I count many than four peaks:

The red curve is the unphysical smoothed SSN. Select another smoothing method and the red curve is different.

Quite true Leif if when you say "peak" you mean it in the broadest sense of the word.

Speaking in that terminology I count 7 Peaks.

June/July 1905 at an SSN of 65

March 1906 at an SSN of 65

September 1906 at an SSN of 64

July 1907 at a SSN of 64

March 1908 at an SSN of 55

October 1908 at an SSN of 54

June/July 1909 at an SSN of 43


Those are what I see.

But I interpret the word "peak" more rigidly and consider the "Absolute Maximum" SSN in determining what are "peaks" and what could be considered "bumps" or "reversals" whose maximum are down more than 10 percent from the cycle's absolute maximum are bumps. That is how I came up with 4 Peaks. This is my own subjective accessment but I think it has merit. Take a look at Cycle 20.



There are reversals on the downhill side of the cycle that leads to bumps at recorded SSNs of 75, 40, and 20 spots. Would you consider them peaks ?

Then take a look at Cycle 23.



Two distinct peaks within less than 5% of the Cycle's absolute maximum.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not say these reversals are inconsequential. To the contrary. If we had the data to do Systemic Analysis of the Sun's Dynamics during these periods and came of with explanation of why all of this phenomenon occurrs at any level of solar activity we would make a major advance in our understanding of the sun.

But I think use of the term Peak in the context of these smaller reversals is somewhat misleading.

[Bob k6tr]

BTW the 1700 UTC Solar flux for today is 134. It looks like we will set another record if it holds up. AR 1164 is also getting mighty angry !

[lsvalgaard]

Mar 5, 2011 19:47:26 GMT Bob k6tr said:

Mar 5, 2011 15:22:09 GMT lsvalgaard said:

I count many than four peaks:

The red curve is the unphysical smoothed SSN. Select another smoothing method and the red curve is different.

Quite true Leif if when you say "peak" you mean it in the broadest sense of the word.

But I think use of the term Peak in the context of these smaller reversals is somewhat misleading.

I think counting peaks is not very useful as they have no real significant. The Solar cycle has always been a sequence of 'episodes' which are rather independent of each other. So I find it hard to make numerology on 'peaks'.

[Bob k6tr]

2000 UTC SFI is 135

EVE 304A Photon Count is 226 at 2140 UTC

[solarstormlover54]

Based on the current 2 huge groups and the real possibility of 1165 becoming a huge group as well. I can see the SSN getting as high as 150 and the flux as high as 160. There are also 2 active regions just over the limb that will come to view in a few days. Generally I would not be surprised to see the flux above 100 for the next week.
It seems to me that SC24 will be unique among the other 23 cycles. It seems to have these epic spikes in activity with low activity in between. Much like SC14. Though only time will tell as I think 23 cycles is way to few to know what the sun can dish out. The sun is billions of years old so how can we base SC24 on just 23 out of millions of cycles.

[bradk]

solarstormlover-

It is pretty amazing how this spike has driven numbers off the charts very quickly. Time will tell if it is legendary or not.

The real interesting thing to me is that the spike is the northern hemisphere and the south remains pretty quiet. Does this mean the south will spike later (possibly indicated by the pole not yet changing) or does it mean it will remain quiet. Also, will the north stay active or die off just as quickly. Strange times.

[Kevin VE3EN]

17:00z SFI today = 147.1

[jcarels]

Very poor seeing today but I just had to take a picture after my observation

Attachments:

[Bob k6tr]

The Spot Count for March 7 0000 UTC is 128 with two more groups schedule to rotate over the East Limb of the sun in the next 24 hours.

SDO EVE 304A Measurement at o230 UTC March 7 is 233

[lku]

Is the huge spike we are seeing unusual ? I realise sudden spikes are common, but proportionally this one seems to be enourmous.
Although Cycle 9 did seem to have something like this occur :
www.solen.info/solar/cycl9.html