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Post by lsvalgaard on Apr 30, 2011 17:51:18 GMT
Latest data for the polar fields No need to push other people's data, especially when already known and shown. |
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bradk
Level 3 Rank
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Post by bradk on Apr 30, 2011 22:11:42 GMT
For SC24 a predicted maximum of Rmax=72 would predict a rise time of 63 months [this is without L&P], putting maximum sometime in 2014. We have no other 'solid' method for predicting the rise time. The original NOAA prediction is junk All true, but as you point out all these models do not assume and L & P effect - my simple thought (probably wrong) is that logic seems to argue the effect should both mess with our models of numbers as well as peak times. Time will tell... |
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Post by THEO BAKALEXIS on May 1, 2011 10:07:14 GMT
A few words about activity of the zone 11195 and a small video about the last two C-class flares from the zone. www.solar-007.eu/site/ |
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Post by jcarels on May 1, 2011 13:24:13 GMT
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
April 2011 : 54.4 (fifty-four point four)
Maximum : 91 on 15 // Minimum : 40 on 5, 10, 25
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for April 2011 :
1.. 48 6.. 41 11.. 48 16.. 66 21.. 57 26.. 53
2.. 45 7.. 58 12.. 66 17.. 51 22.. 62 27.. 52
3.. 43 8.. 60 13.. 79 18.. 51 23.. 56 28.. 44
4.. 48 9.. 56 14.. 88 19.. 51 24.. 46 29.. 44
5.. 40 10.. 40 15.. 91 20.. 52 25.. 40 30.. 57
66 cooperating stations on May 1, 10 UT
(SIDC)
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bradk
Level 3 Rank
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Post by bradk on May 1, 2011 13:46:46 GMT
Put is this way Leif, if the shoe were on the other foot and I was arguing for solar cycle 24 being close to 14 you would say something like:
Although it may be true that solar cycle 24 will indeed be much like solar cycle 14 it may only be luck as solar cycle 24 has a L & P effect and solar cycle 14 did not thus we are really in uncharted waters here.
That is what makes the academic discourse both wonderful and terribly difficult - the argument against any point is easier than the argument for it.
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Post by openended on May 1, 2011 14:09:55 GMT
Hi Kevin,
I'm glad to see you are getting something back for your hard work on the site. Maybe a little heavy on the fundraising with the new red bar across the top but i understand and i'm sure everyone else does too.
Here's another suggestion. It would be nice to have a good sunspot numbering pic and a link to the current noaa spacewather alerts. i usually jump to spacewiether site for those but would prefer to use yours exlusively. Anywhere down in that black left corner would be great if you don't want to move things.
And i find the new stuff you put on the left side a waste of space and not useful, but just my opinion.
Keep up the good work and thanks again..
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Post by lsvalgaard on May 1, 2011 16:56:40 GMT
Put is this way Leif, if the shoe were on the other foot and I was arguing for solar cycle 24 being close to 14 you would say something like: Although it may be true that solar cycle 24 will indeed be much like solar cycle 14 it may only be luck as solar cycle 24 has a L & P effect and solar cycle 14 did not thus we are really in uncharted waters here. That is what makes the academic discourse both wonderful and terribly difficult - the argument against any point is easier than the argument for it. we are in uncharted waters alright. when I compare with SC14 it is more to illustrate the large variability of small cycles rather than the actual values of the numbers. Perhaps a better choice would have been cycle minus 7 [if we only had the numbers]. |
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loly
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 154
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Post by loly on May 3, 2011 17:55:04 GMT
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
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Post by solarstormlover54 on May 4, 2011 8:26:48 GMT
I have to say that the only cycle that makes sense to me is solar cycle 3. Ignore the numbers for now. SC3 started slow and then revved into maximum very quickly. Just before the sun went pedal to the metal one would think that SC3 would have been a slower cycle Though Sc24 had been delayed quite a bit longer than sc3  To compare if sc24 is alike were sitting at May 1777(remember ignore the numbers) Just tone down the number quite a bit and I can see it being sc24, say by about 50 sunspots less. Peaking right away at around 110 sunspots and than slowly calming down. The peak I think may be even earlier. But I'd say as early as Nov 2011 or as late as Jan 2013. The big key would be if and how much we come down from the current spike. May and June should reveal this. Even so we simply do not have a large enough database to compare Sc24 to, it could turn out awkward and bonked. Who know what cycles have come and gone in the suns billions of years of existence. I should just for the fun of it make a few "charts" of outrageous possible solar cycles. After all we know from the maunder that our sun can pull anything off |
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bradk
Level 3 Rank
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Post by bradk on May 4, 2011 12:25:45 GMT
The sun can pull anything off, I think the worst thing in solar research was the push of the idea that the sun is relatively stable and constant - how untrue!
I am still betting for a early peak in this cycle and some sort of minima to follow after this cycle, based on Leif's great research and commentary on the L & P Effect.
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bradk
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 199
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Post by bradk on May 6, 2011 7:12:50 GMT
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loly
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 154
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Post by loly on May 6, 2011 13:29:47 GMT
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Post by THEO BAKALEXIS on May 8, 2011 15:11:55 GMT
Average seeing today from athens. The best phainomenon today are the big filaments. Too much gas and unstable areas. Two no number regions with sunspots right now. The other two is 11204 and 110203 at the west side. No big prominences today. www.solar-007.eu/ |
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Post by THEO BAKALEXIS on May 9, 2011 17:47:31 GMT
why we have activity only in the north hemisphere. The south is absolutelly empty. Can magnetic fields of another big object to affect the magnetic fields of the sun.....  ? |
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Post by lsvalgaard on May 9, 2011 19:43:15 GMT
why we have activity only in the north hemisphere. The south is absolutelly empty. Can magnetic fields of another big object to affect the magnetic fields of the sun..... ? A few years ago it was the other way around, this is quite normal. The sun is messy. |
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