Post by hairball on Oct 28, 2013 15:53:48 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard thank you for sharing your knowledge. Paul Hudson, a meteorologist at the BBC who has degrees in geophysics and planetary physics, has written about his interview with Prof Lockwood regarding solar activity and its relation to climate:
www.live.bbc.co.uk/blogs/blogpaulhudson/posts/Real-risk-of-a-Maunder-minimum-Little-Ice-Age-says-leading-scientist
Do you agree with any of this? I remember (perhaps wrongly) you saying that there was no "grand maximum" in the 20th century and that ice core isotope analysis is unreliable because weather can unpredictably pollute ice with said isotopes independent of solar activity.
www.live.bbc.co.uk/blogs/blogpaulhudson/posts/Real-risk-of-a-Maunder-minimum-Little-Ice-Age-says-leading-scientist
According to Professor Lockwood the late 20th century was a period when the sun was unusually active and a so called ‘grand maximum’ occurred around 1985.
By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, he has been able to determine how active the sun has been over thousands of years.
Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.
He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was in exactly the same state as it is now - and the present decline is faster than any of those 24.
Based on his findings he’s raised the risk of a new Maunder minimum from less than 10% just a few years ago to 25-30%.
And a repeat of the Dalton solar minimum which occurred in the early 1800s, which also had its fair share of cold winters and poor summers, is, according to him, ‘more likely than not’ to happen.
He believes that we are already beginning to see a change in our climate - witness the colder winters and poor summers of recent years - and that over the next few decades there could be a slide to a new Maunder minimum.
By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, he has been able to determine how active the sun has been over thousands of years.
Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.
He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was in exactly the same state as it is now - and the present decline is faster than any of those 24.
Based on his findings he’s raised the risk of a new Maunder minimum from less than 10% just a few years ago to 25-30%.
And a repeat of the Dalton solar minimum which occurred in the early 1800s, which also had its fair share of cold winters and poor summers, is, according to him, ‘more likely than not’ to happen.
He believes that we are already beginning to see a change in our climate - witness the colder winters and poor summers of recent years - and that over the next few decades there could be a slide to a new Maunder minimum.
Do you agree with any of this? I remember (perhaps wrongly) you saying that there was no "grand maximum" in the 20th century and that ice core isotope analysis is unreliable because weather can unpredictably pollute ice with said isotopes independent of solar activity.
