|
Post by vukcevic on Oct 16, 2011 19:19:22 GMT
The question went missing, it was: Has anything changed in the measuring techniques in view of the sudden change of volatility in March 2006?
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Oct 17, 2011 2:54:39 GMT
The question went missing, it was: Has anything changed in the measuring techniques in view of the sudden change of volatility in March 2006? Yes and no. The technique has not changed [that is the strength of WSO], but we have a filter that only allows green light to pass. This is necessary as the spectra of different orders from the diffraction grating overlaps [we use the 5th order]. This filter was degrading and less and less light was getting through. As the noise depends on the number of photons entering the photo tubes, the failing filter increased the noise [hence the larger swings] until the filter failed completely and had to be replaced in the summer of 2006. After that the noise essentially went away as you can see here: In addition, the noise is always a bit larger during the winter when the sun is lower [fewer photons] and the air mass larger [more seeing problems and scattered light which diminishes the measured polar fields, see www.leif.org/research/Scattered%20Light%20Influence%20on%20Magnetic%20Field%20at%20WSO.pdf ]. In the late summer of 2008 there were some 8000 wild fires in Northern California (marked by 'WF') when the smoke-filled air for several months increased scattered light. Furthermore, during the reversal back to 2000 the solar variations were just larger. This is coupled with some calibration problems as stated on the WSO website: "WSO sensitivity problems from CR 1970 - CR 1992 (November 2000 - July 2002) have been quantified and the data have been recalibrated." However to my knowledge the recalibration was only done to the magnetograms and not done to the published polar field data. You can see the problem here [taken from www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf ] where the blue [MWO] and red [WSO] curves disagree (marked by pink line near the X-axis), due to bad WSO data.
|
|
|
Post by vukcevic on Oct 17, 2011 6:45:16 GMT
Thanks. I thought 2006 transition looked odd.
|
|
ajb
New Member
Posts: 1
|
Post by ajb on Oct 19, 2011 13:31:06 GMT
Dr Svalgaard,
Is there a similar explanation for the seemingly largish spike at the end of 1995?
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Oct 19, 2011 15:50:30 GMT
Dr Svalgaard, Is there a similar explanation for the seemingly largish spike at the end of 1995? That is just the usual noise, perhaps winter weather giving trouble.
|
|
|
Post by dusty09 on Oct 28, 2011 23:23:49 GMT
Dr Svalgaard,
On the Solarham Homepage Kevin has the Planetary K-Index displayed at 3 hour and 15 min intervals. Can you point me in the direction of the raw 3 hour data for 2011. I've found what looks to be the daily data tucked away at the noaa.gov website and I have no idea where else to look... Finally in a perfect world it would be in a format I didn't have to rebuild
Any help would be appreciated.
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Oct 29, 2011 11:40:16 GMT
Dr Svalgaard, On the Solarham Homepage Kevin has the Planetary K-Index displayed at 3 hour and 15 min intervals. Can you point me in the direction of the raw 3 hour data for 2011. I've found what looks to be the daily data tucked away at the noaa.gov website and I have no idea where else to look... Finally in a perfect world it would be in a format I didn't have to rebuild Any help would be appreciated. www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/data/magnetic_indices/apindex.html
|
|
|
Post by dusty09 on Oct 29, 2011 14:55:01 GMT
Dr S
Perfect...Many thanks
|
|
basil
New Member
Posts: 11
|
Post by basil on Oct 31, 2011 22:36:58 GMT
Leif,
On the daily image you post on your research page, you've annotated it with "Welcome to Solar Max..."
Do you really think we are approaching solar max? I've perused your SHINE presentation, and see the evidence you present there, and it look like we're getting close. Hasn't the CW been that SC24 will peak in 2013?
Have you been following the CR flux? Do you see anything there pointing to a sooner than expected solar max?
As a ham hoping for a bit more action yet than we've seen, I'd like to see the current cycle hang around for a bit longer. I'm not ready for solar max yet.
Basil
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Nov 1, 2011 4:19:57 GMT
Leif, On the daily image you post on your research page, you've annotated it with "Welcome to Solar Max..." Do you really think we are approaching solar max? I've perused your SHINE presentation, and see the evidence you present there, and it look like we're getting close. Hasn't the CW been that SC24 will peak in 2013? Have you been following the CR flux? Do you see anything there pointing to a sooner than expected solar max? As a ham hoping for a bit more action yet than we've seen, I'd like to see the current cycle hang around for a bit longer. I'm not ready for solar max yet. Basil I think the maximum will be a drawn-out affair, just as in cycle 14:
|
|
basil
New Member
Posts: 11
|
Post by basil on Nov 1, 2011 13:13:25 GMT
Thanks! That's as "encouraging" as it probably gets, under the circumstances.
Basil
|
|
|
Post by justsomeguy on Nov 2, 2011 5:00:53 GMT
I have absolutely no credentials and thus should not be trusted, that said, if the only current effect ongoing is a "normal" cycle with a and L and P effect (which was not present in 14) then we might expect a somewhat shorter max that in 14. Namely, the early predictions for cycle length were close to correct (see slide 7) but the magnitude was just off: www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/index.html
|
|
|
Post by justsomeguy on Nov 2, 2011 5:04:43 GMT
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Nov 2, 2011 13:10:13 GMT
|
|
|
Post by france on Nov 5, 2011 0:17:07 GMT
Dr Svalgaard have you yet done a prediction for SC25 ? Thanks for your answers. I prefer read your graphs than those of vukcevick, they are more finished and careful
|
|