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Post by france on Nov 19, 2011 0:15:42 GMT
fine  dr Svalgaard, why do you think the attractive force can't have any kind of matter in the solar activity ? Because it is too weak. you always say is to weak even with the tiny changes in the width of the sun. But if you look at the weather on earth, even few changes in the pressure can have big effects. Weak changes could induce giant effects refering to the sun. Why even little and régular changes in attractive force couldn't have any effect on pressure activity by the atoms moving or something like that . I don't know exactly what or how but a little move could shake the gas and induce a change in nuclear reactions ? Nobody knows in fact. But a move in the gas could disturb the sun activity even if its tiny refering to its gigantic measurement. May be it would be possible to take examples with chemical data of atoms to verify it. How little can be the move to change the nuclear reactions. But I am not able to make this work.  |
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Post by justsomeguy on Nov 19, 2011 17:34:58 GMT
France-
Good thoughts. The gravity of the sun will remain almost exactly the same with a size change as atoms move out, but only over a very short distance. The question then becomes what is forcing the atoms farther out, to expand the sun, and the simple answer would seem to be greater energy release via fusion. This could mean that the size of the sun is a good proxy for changes in the heat engine of the sun, the question then is are those changes in this stochastic process sufficient to cause perceivable changes this far out, e.g. at earth.
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Post by lsvalgaard on Nov 19, 2011 17:56:05 GMT
you always say is to weak even with the tiny changes in the width of the sun. But if you look at the weather on earth, even few changes in the pressure can have big effects. Weak changes could induce giant effects refering to the sun. Why even little and régular changes in attractive force couldn't have any effect on pressure activity by the atoms moving or something like that . I don't know exactly what or how but a little move could shake the gas and induce a change in nuclear reactions ? Nobody knows in fact. But a move in the gas could disturb the sun activity even if its tiny refering to its gigantic measurement. May be it would be possible to take examples with chemical data of atoms to verify it. How little can be the move to change the nuclear reactions. But I am not able to make this work. The changes in the radius of the Sun are not due to changes in gravity, but due to changes in temperature. Make the Sun a little bit hotter and it will expand a bit. There are satellites [even a French one] up there with the purpose of measuring the radius of the Sun as accurately as possible. www.nswp.gov/lwstrt/mowg0504_picard.pdf |
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Post by elbuho on Nov 22, 2011 1:38:55 GMT
Dear dr.
Are smaller the spots during this maximum comparing to other cycles?
Thanks
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Post by lsvalgaard on Nov 23, 2011 12:50:20 GMT
Dear dr. Are smaller the spots during this maximum comparing to other cycles? Thanks It seems so. They are certainly weaker magnetically. On the other hand, a lot of the smallest spots are missing, so the situation is a bit more complex. |
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Post by af4ex on Nov 23, 2011 19:10:00 GMT
@leif
> ... a lot of the smallest spots are missing, so the situation is a bit more complex.
Why is that necessarily complex? Could it not simply imply that a magnetic threshold exists for their existence? 1500 Gauss?
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Post by elbuho on Nov 28, 2011 0:18:49 GMT
@leif > ... a lot of the smallest spots are missing, so the situation is a bit more complex. Why is that necessarily complex? Could it not simply imply that a magnetic threshold exists for their existence? 1500 Gauss? Thank you very much Dr. His informative work is priceless. I wish more scientists were like you. On the other hand share af4ex's question. What do you mean "situation is a bit more complex"? I think L& P seems to explain perfectly the complexity. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Nov 28, 2011 6:54:41 GMT
I think Dr. Svalgaard does think the L & P effect may explain the missing spots, that said, it is a complex situation as this is a first in modern history when we have all these instruments aimed at the sun so it there are alot of unknowns, or at least more uncertainty than would be if this were a "normal" small cycle (e.g. fewer spots, but the same magnetically).
He would likely say something like, "the sun is a messy place"
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Post by af4ex on Nov 28, 2011 11:26:45 GMT
> "The sun is a messy place" -L. Svalgaard
A useful aphorism, because it allows us to accept complexity as a simple fact.
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Post by lsvalgaard on Nov 28, 2011 17:24:13 GMT
> "The sun is a messy place" -L. Svalgaard A useful aphorism, because it allows us to accept complexity as a simple fact. :-| Indeed |
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Post by elbuho on Dec 21, 2011 1:46:42 GMT
Dear doctor,
Do you think the activity is increasing faster than suggested your prediction?
Thanks again.
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Post by lsvalgaard on Dec 21, 2011 3:45:07 GMT
Dear doctor, Do you think the activity is increasing faster than suggested your prediction? Thanks again. It is too early to make any definitive statements. Weak cycles often have wide swings. Compare e.g. cycle 14 and 24:  Next year will be important for the assessment. In comparing cycle 24 with cycle 14 we should take into account [not done in the Figure above] that sunspot numbers after 1945 are artificially too high by 20%. See e.g. www.leif.org/research/IAUS286-Mendoza-Svalgaard.pdf |
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Post by elbuho on Dec 21, 2011 23:03:49 GMT
In comparing cycle 24 with cycle 14 we should take into account [not done in the Figure above] that sunspot numbers after 1945 are artificially too high by 20%. I always forgot it. Thank you again. |
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beach
New Member
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Post by beach on Dec 22, 2011 20:25:55 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard, I am a high school junior. I recently worked on a research project titled "The Correlation between GOES Flare Classification and the Effect of Solar Flaring on the Strength of the Geomagnetic Field" in which I was able to create a new scaling system for geomagnetic disturbances described in this post of the forums solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1692&page=23#77011I would be more than happy to send you the complete research paper if you are interested in reading up on more specifics of the system and the results of the project. af4ex has worked with me on the paper, too, so if you were to ask him for it or ask him about it, I'm sure he could also answer questions. Kevin Beach |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Dec 22, 2011 23:47:31 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard, I am a high school junior. I recently worked on a research project titled "The Correlation between GOES Flare Classification and the Effect of Solar Flaring on the Strength of the Geomagnetic Field" in which I was able to create a new scaling system for geomagnetic disturbances described in this post of the forums solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1692&page=23#77011I would be more than happy to send you the complete research paper if you are interested in reading up on more specifics of the system and the results of the project. af4ex has worked with me on the paper, too, so if you were to ask him for it or ask him about it, I'm sure he could also answer questions. Kevin Beach I would be glad to look at it. |
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