|
Post by sigurdur on Feb 1, 2012 21:13:08 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2012 12:48:13 GMT
Hi, I find the image on www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.pngvery informative. For a few weeks the base line of the F10.7 plot is no longer therere. If I remember correctly, the argument for this base line was that it would show the true trend better than an average line. If I draw such a base line along the bottom dots myself now, it looks like either the peak of SC24 is already over, or we are heading towards an extremely flat maximum. Or has the baseline theory been dropped in the meantime?
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 6, 2012 17:17:52 GMT
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 6, 2012 17:19:50 GMT
Hi, I find the image on www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.pngvery informative. For a few weeks the base line of the F10.7 plot is no longer therere. If I remember correctly, the argument for this base line was that it would show the true trend better than an average line. If I draw such a base line along the bottom dots myself now, it looks like either the peak of SC24 is already over, or we are heading towards an extremely flat maximum. Or has the baseline theory been dropped in the meantime? the baseline made sense when the sun was quiet and activity complexes were isolated, but now when activity from many centers merge, the baseline becomes meaningless and that is why I don't show it any more.
|
|
|
Post by france on Feb 10, 2012 15:01:36 GMT
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 10, 2012 15:51:01 GMT
The solar wind keeps the interstellar magnetic field away from the solar system, so there is no significant effect due to the 'cloud'.
|
|
|
Post by france on Feb 10, 2012 20:46:17 GMT
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Feb 13, 2012 17:21:40 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard: This is not a global warming nor global cooling question.
In my research, trying to find hydrological effects from changes in sunspots, paper after paper mentions this. But the papers only show correlation. As a farmer, I am trying to understand the mechanics of said correlation and if it is verifiable.
I looked quickly on your research site, and certainly could have missed it, but are there any studies that show a cause as to sun and hydroligical effects?
Are these weak correlations or something that one can use in long term planning?
Thank you in advance for your response.
|
|
|
Post by chickenlittle on Feb 13, 2012 19:20:55 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard:
According to WSO, the polar fields seem to be keeping their distance from each other, not much distance, but then this cycle has been weak overall. Are there other signs that we're approaching a solar max? Or could the polar reversal be years away?
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 13, 2012 20:08:15 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard: This is not a global warming nor global cooling question. In my research, trying to find hydrological effects from changes in sunspots, paper after paper mentions this. But the papers only show correlation. As a farmer, I am trying to understand the mechanics of said correlation and if it is verifiable. I looked quickly on your research site, and certainly could have missed it, but are there any studies that show a cause as to sun and hydroligical effects? Are these weak correlations or something that one can use in long term planning? Thank you in advance for your response. In my opinion any effect is too small [or uncertain] that one should not rely too much on the correlations.
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 13, 2012 20:15:11 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard: According to WSO, the polar fields seem to be keeping their distance from each other, not much distance, but then this cycle has been weak overall. Are there other signs that we're approaching a solar max? Or could the polar reversal be years away? Here is my plot of the WSO data: The dashed lines show a guess of the trend of the field at the southern pole [red] and the northern pole [blue]. The green curve at the bottom is the difference between North and South. A polar reversal at the end of 2012 or early 2013 seems a reasonable estimate.
|
|
|
Post by france on Feb 19, 2012 1:59:39 GMT
|
|
|
Post by france on Feb 19, 2012 2:05:42 GMT
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 19, 2012 3:29:16 GMT
That is one of the many 'explanations' offered. Not a very convincing one. More likely it is just changing weather.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Feb 19, 2012 17:36:09 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard: I read an abstract to a paper that claimed to reconstruct the paleo TSI from 10be trapped in ice cores.
I have seen so many reconstructions that vary greatly that I don't know what to believe. Is the 10be an accurate indicator of past solar TSI, good enough to construct a paleo graph with a very small uncertainty?
|
|