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Post by randwick on Jun 21, 2011 16:42:47 GMT
. I've just visited the Calern Observatory on the French riviera
F.Laclare has been measuring the sun diameter there for some years
there seems to be some discution about the variations being counter cyclic or not
also the ground measurements seems to diverge from the satellites data
What does it means?
Does it matter for the cycle intensity ?
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Post by justsomeguy on Jun 21, 2011 18:27:52 GMT
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Post by lsvalgaard on Jun 22, 2011 6:27:50 GMT
Yes, the solar radius does play a role: the bigger it is the more TSI do we get. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Jun 22, 2011 12:09:05 GMT
I guess that makes sense, and as a body that is made of a liquid/gas I guess it shouldn't be that surprising. What drives the change in size? Any expectation of change based on the magnetic changes seen by L & P ?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Jun 22, 2011 15:19:06 GMT
I guess that makes sense, and as a body that is made of a liquid/gas I guess it shouldn't be that surprising. What drives the change in size? Any expectation of change based on the magnetic changes seen by L & P ? Don't know. That's why we need to measure the radius with precision to get an idea about how it varies. Then we can think about an explanation. Right now it would just be speculation. |
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Post by THEO BAKALEXIS on Jun 22, 2011 15:48:11 GMT
Flares is the greatest phainomenon on solar surface. Yesterday the region giving a C7.7 early the morning. Make a video of the SDO. The magnetic loops inside region at the flaretime is fantastic. www.solar-007.eu/site/ |
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Post by elbuho on Jun 23, 2011 0:47:29 GMT
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Post by justsomeguy on Jun 23, 2011 1:25:07 GMT
They say nothing about the probability of this happening again in your lifetime or mine, because they have no idea if it can or will happen again. It is like the supervolcano in Yellowstone or the next ice age - will the volcano explode? Yes. Will the ice age happen? Yes. Will they happen and when will they happen is the real question though, as that probability and your control over the event (namely, what can you do if it happens) creates the chance you need to analyze. The probabilities of a Carrington event or any of these others is very low, thus I do no preparation as the probability of a truck hitting me and killing me on my way to work tomorrow is much greater than any of these ever affecting my life.
Next thing to analyze, why do scientists hype global warming or the next ice age or the super-volcano? So they can get funding, science has become a political game. Just my humble opinion...
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Post by sunspotboy on Jun 23, 2011 5:19:39 GMT
Nasa and Solar Super Storm A solar Super Storm of the size and duration of the ‘Carrington Event’ of 1859 will down the world’s power grid infrastructure for years... Think about that for a minute… No food... water... gasoline... radio... internet... In short: almost nothing will be left... Hundreds of millions in Europe and the US would surely die. But this is not all... All nuclear reactors will melt down... because the cooling of the reactors fails.... Thus, a Super Solarstorm has the potential to cause a Fukushima type accident at every nuclear power plant in the world! And worse... The fuel assemblies in the spent fuel pool will melt... Catch fire, and radioactive fission products will be released into the atmosphere... Because there is at least 10 times more spent fuel then in the reactors... The world will be confronted with the equivalent of thousands nuclear reactors melting down ..! Will this be the end of human life on earth..? This is very serious.... peakoil.com/enviroment/worldwide-nuclear-meltdown/ |
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Post by justsomeguy on Jun 23, 2011 13:33:02 GMT
This really coes not belong in this portion of the forum, I have opened a thread for it here in Global Warming discussion.
As for a Carrington event - sure, we can all worry about it, but the probability of it happening this cycle is lower than ever and the probability of it happenong in any earlier cycle was extraordinarily small. I will worry about the dysfunction in Washington DC and pay attention in traffic, as the probabilities those will affect my life are infinitely greater than any Carrington event.
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Post by sunnydave on Jun 23, 2011 17:26:56 GMT
On a slight positive note. We will have 18 hours to prepare for the hit from the Sun. Observatories currently track the Sun.
Not sure how much good it will do. Maybe enough time to shut down the nuke plants. Disconnect critical electronic devices. Turn off Satellites.
Still, that much magnetic flux hitting us will still probably fry the power grid.
We might protect some of the electrical infrastructure. For most it will be 1850.
Sunny Dave
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Post by lsvalgaard on Jun 23, 2011 17:46:21 GMT
On a slight positive note. We will have 18 hours to prepare for the hit from the Sun. Observatories currently track the Sun. Not sure how much good it will do. Maybe enough time to shut down the nuke plants. Disconnect critical electronic devices. Turn off Satellites. Still, that much magnetic flux hitting us will still probably fry the power grid. We might protect some of the electrical infrastructure. For most it will be 1850. Sunny Dave This was not a particularly strong storm. Its effect will be minor [run-of-the mill]. No precautions necessary. |
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bop
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Post by bop on Jun 23, 2011 20:31:02 GMT
I spoke with a senior official who told me that the lawyers nixed shutting down the grids, even for actionable SW alerts. Liability issue. If a CE fries the grid it's an act of God, they're off the hook. If they shut it down pre-emptively and a someone gets hit crossing an intersection with no lights or granny on a ventilator died, they'd be responsible.. So ...
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Post by lsvalgaard on Jun 23, 2011 21:17:13 GMT
I spoke with a senior official who told me that the lawyers nixed shutting down the grids, even for actionable SW alerts. Liability issue. If a CE fries the grid it's an act of God, they're off the hook. If they shut it down pre-emptively and a someone gets hit crossing an intersection with no lights or granny on a ventilator died, they'd be responsible.. So ... It doesn't matter as there will not be any significant effects this time. |
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bop
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Post by bop on Jun 23, 2011 21:17:50 GMT
Of course not Dr. S, I just meant as a policy directive..
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