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Post by justsomeguy on Apr 11, 2012 6:30:23 GMT
Hi Dr... would you be having a gut feeling that a magnetic reversal is about to occur? With the lack of sunspots, is there a dynamic field building rather than localized fields? The North pole has already reversed. The South pole has at least another year to go. The field reversal comes from sunspot fields drifting up from lower latitudes. for the south pole to reverse we need some activity in the South. Is it possible this is one of the causes of Grand Minima? Namely, never enough magnetism to reverse the field thus long slow quiet cycles persist for very long periods? I know that is not the current model, but...is it possible or just wrong? |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Apr 11, 2012 19:40:23 GMT
The North pole has already reversed. The South pole has at least another year to go. The field reversal comes from sunspot fields drifting up from lower latitudes. for the south pole to reverse we need some activity in the South. So the sun currently has two south poles? yep. this happens every reversal: the two poles don't reverse at the same time. There can be 1-2 years difference. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Apr 14, 2012 18:11:25 GMT
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Post by justsomeguy on Apr 17, 2012 4:40:51 GMT
OK, lets get some random bet going based on hunches. The science is probably strongly against me, but I am betting there has never been a solar cycle like this one in the history of the truly instrumented sun. I bet the flux never gets back over the predicted red line this cycle. That would require this cycle not to be like solar cycle 14, as Dr. Svalgaard predicts (and lets face it, the smart money goes with him). www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/f10.gif |
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Post by belric on Apr 17, 2012 6:00:33 GMT
So the sun currently has two south poles? yep. this happens every reversal: the two poles don't reverse at the same time. There can be 1-2 years difference. Leif, A magnet consists of a north and a south pole with equal strenght. Can you show a picture of the magnetic lines on the Sun with two south poles? I suppose the sun has not become a monopole ;D! |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Apr 17, 2012 12:17:12 GMT
yep. this happens every reversal: the two poles don't reverse at the same time. There can be 1-2 years difference. Leif, A magnet consists of a north and a south pole with equal strenght. Can you show a picture of the magnetic lines on the Sun with two south poles? I suppose the sun has not become a monopole ;D! The sun is not a bar magnet. There are thousands of magnetic poles on the sun. Here www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ are some field line maps [bottom row]. |
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loly
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 154
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Post by loly on Apr 17, 2012 13:57:39 GMT
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loly
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 154
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Post by loly on Apr 19, 2012 17:42:02 GMT
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Post by belric on Apr 25, 2012 14:19:42 GMT
Leif, A magnet consists of a north and a south pole with equal strenght. Can you show a picture of the magnetic lines on the Sun with two south poles? I suppose the sun has not become a monopole ;D! The sun is not a bar magnet. There are thousands of magnetic poles on the sun. Here www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ are some field line maps [bottom row]. Dr. Svalgaard, 1. Recently, the following picture was distributed by The Asahi Shimbun: ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201204200075The Sun is presented as having a four polar structure. But if the sun is not a bar magnet, it cannot be presented as a quadrupole! Do you agree with this? 2. hinode.nao.ac.jp/news/120419PressRelease/index_e.shtml : These latest Hinode observations suggest that the global magnetic field of the Sun will become different from the normal bipolar configuration.What is the meaning of this statement? I conclude that sun has entered in a special status, different of what is known from earlier observations. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Apr 25, 2012 15:13:45 GMT
Belric- The suns poles often are of the same polarity, happens almost every solar cycle:  |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Apr 25, 2012 16:33:09 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard, 1. Recently, the following picture was distributed by The Asahi Shimbun: ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201204200075The Sun is presented as having a four polar structure. But if the sun is not a bar magnet, it cannot be presented as a quadrupole! Do you agree with this? 2. hinode.nao.ac.jp/news/120419PressRelease/index_e.shtml : These latest Hinode observations suggest that the global magnetic field of the Sun will become different from the normal bipolar configuration.What is the meaning of this statement? I conclude that sun has entered in a special status, different of what is known from earlier observations. This happens in every solar cycle, so the Japanese researchers [or their PR-agent] are overstating their case. |
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Post by france on Apr 26, 2012 19:59:07 GMT
Dr Svalgaard, what means PR ?
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Post by justsomeguy on Apr 27, 2012 18:02:49 GMT
PR- public relations
I believe Dr. Svalgaard is implying they may be hyping their finding in order to gain attention, as is common today in science. Folks seems rather open to press release science instead of the peer reviewed kind.
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andor
Level 2 Rank
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Post by andor on May 4, 2012 14:25:00 GMT
Hi there
Where can I see the latest trend in sunspots such as on Solarham.com?
If I plot myself with the given monthly values, we have reached the cycle 24 peak already then? Is this correct and the trend moving downwards?
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Post by justsomeguy on May 5, 2012 9:33:13 GMT
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