Solar Cycle 24 Main Discussion XI

[chickenlittle]

I have the north/south sunspot number graph in Excel from the start of 1992 through the end of 2012. How do I post it to this board?
Chicken LIttle

[cuttydyer]

Jan 27, 2013 3:35:59 GMT chickenlittle said:

I have the north/south sunspot number graph in Excel from the start of 1992 through the end of 2012. How do I post it to this board?
Chicken LIttle

Go to help :http://www.proboards.com/forum-help-guide/create-forum-thread

then see the "attachment" entry:
Attachment: If you're creating a thread on a message board that allows attachments, Attachment will be the second option listed on the posting page. This can be used to attach files from your computer and have them display in your thread when the topic is posted. For example, if you want to attach a picture of your pet, use the attachment feature to upload the image and a thumbnail image of your pet will be displayed at the bottom of your forum post. Members can then click on the thumbnail to see an enlarged image. You can submit one attachment per post with a maximum file size of 1MB.

The graph could also be converted to an image file, saved in photobucket (or similar) then the direct link can be copied into the "insert image" tool (see add tags).

[darrin]

When was or is solar max ? seems like it was late 2011 from a radio guys point of view .

Cheers Darrin

[miedosoracing]

Jan 21, 2013 22:44:05 GMT kalohux said:

It is not cool not to answer everybodys questions.

Is there some kind of secret word I have to write to be answered or do you have some secret club I have not been invited to?

I have waited since november 2012 for someone to tell me how to browse the SAM images archive.

I am not expecting an answer.

Sorry you haven't been answered. I don't know the answer. Hopefully someone will help you out. Good luck.

[bigbud]

101 days without Kp>4 now
that is quite unusual... given that we are at solar maximum

[lsvalgaard]

Feb 13, 2013 17:52:47 GMT darrin said:

When was or is solar max ? seems like it was late 2011 from a radio guys point of view .

Cheers Darrin

Solar maximum is a slippery concept as there is no good definition of it. The maximum will probably stretch out over several years, like it did back in solar cycle 14, with lots of ups and downs:

[bigbud]

ah, finally a Kp=5
Didnt come before the March-April window...

[belric]

An interesting article can be read on science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/01mar_twinpeaks/.
In the year of the Solar Max, the solar activity is until now rather low. Sunspot counts jumped in 2011, dipped in 2012, and Pesnell expects them to rebound again in 2013: "I am comfortable in saying that another peak will happen in 2013 and possibly last into 2014," he predicts.
And Incidentally, Pesnell notes a similarity between Solar Cycle 24, underway now, and Solar Cycle 14, which had a double-peak during the first decade of the 20th century. If the two cycles are in fact twins, “it would mean one peak in late 2013 and another in 2015.”
So, the question is if the first peak is already behind us or if the first peak still has to come. I thought that peaks were linked with the reversals of the Poles. The North Pole has already reversed in 2011 (peak in November 2011). This was the base for the first peak. Because the solar activity in the South is low, I do not expect a reversal of the Pole in the first months. The solar maximum was expected to occur in May 2013, but it may be later.
I seriously doubt that the two peaks still have to come.

[lsvalgaard]

Mar 2, 2013 9:13:33 GMT belric said:

An interesting article can be read on science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/01mar_twinpeaks/.
In the year of the Solar Max, the solar activity is until now rather low. Sunspot counts jumped in 2011, dipped in 2012, and Pesnell expects them to rebound again in 2013: "I am comfortable in saying that another peak will happen in 2013 and possibly last into 2014," he predicts.
And Incidentally, Pesnell notes a similarity between Solar Cycle 24, underway now, and Solar Cycle 14, which had a double-peak during the first decade of the 20th century. If the two cycles are in fact twins, “it would mean one peak in late 2013 and another in 2015.”
So, the question is if the first peak is already behind us or if the first peak still has to come. I thought that peaks were linked with the reversals of the Poles. The North Pole has already reversed in 2011 (peak in November 2011). This was the base for the first peak. Because the solar activity in the South is low, I do not expect a reversal of the Pole in the first months. The solar maximum was expected to occur in May 2013, but it may be later.
I seriously doubt that the two peaks still have to come.

Cycle 14 was not just 'double peaked', It had about six 'peaks'.

[justsomeguy]

Solar Cycle 14 is interesting, but this cycle is not quite looking like it yet, to me at least. Is there a statistical test for this to determine if they are different? Likely the data is too noisy to make that possible.

[lsvalgaard]

Mar 3, 2013 22:41:11 GMT justsomeguy said:

Solar Cycle 14 is interesting, but this cycle is not quite looking like it yet, to me at least. Is there a statistical test for this to determine if they are different? Likely the data is too noisy to make that possible.

we are not long enough into the cycle to really make such a test [there are tests for similarity].

[justsomeguy]

Dr Svalgaard-

Just a thought, but as I was looking at the L & P chart I noted that in the last minimum, and possibly even the end of the last cycle, the average (dots) of the Unmbral Magnetic fiedl seemd to increase, and then the L & P linear change was picked up again once the new cycle started. Is this possible? That the L & P effect differs in minima and maxima?

[lsvalgaard]

It probably just means that there were so few sunspots that the error in determining the mean value is large.

[Bob k6tr]

Mar 21, 2013 18:41:25 GMT lsvalgaard said:

It probably just means that there were so few sunspots that the error in determining the mean value is large.

I'm assuming the dots are the average computation of the previous readings. Am I correct ?

If so how often does Bill make those computations ?

It appears somewhere in the 3 to 6 month range.

[lsvalgaard]

Bill sends me his data every month and I calculate the mean and median as I get the data. For all of 2007 there were only 60 observations vs. 885 for 2012.