Solar Cycle 24 Main Discussion XI

[lsvalgaard]

Almost. Perhaps tomorrow will be

[lsvalgaard]

indeed sidc/silso reports ssn = 0

[dontgetoutmuch]

Thank you Mr. Lsvalgaard...

If memory serves, I believe that there is a body of research, or perhaps that is overstating it, that uses the first spotless day recorded as the current solar-cycle wanes to predict the onset of the next cycle. I am curious if you personally believe if this first spotless day is significant or just a curious outlier. If indeed is is an outlier.

Again, if memory serves, you follow polar field strength and will not be offering any of your predictions for cycle 25 for another couple of years???

[lsvalgaard]

Weak cycles, e.g. SC14, have occasional spotless days near maximum [and through out, actually]. Doesn't portend anything significant.

And you are right. We need to have the polar fields to build first and become stable and that may take another 2 to 3 years.

[sigurdur]

news.yahoo.com/earth-survived-near-miss-2012-solar-storm-nasa-222404357.html

[Andrew]

www.sidc.be/silso/

[bigbud]

a >X10 flare in a few days, following todays X-flare, and we have a potential carrington event...

[pavel]

Mr. Lsvalgaard...as it is very possible that during weak solar cycle 25, at solar disk will appear big coronal hole at the equator. Could it be the cause of the next Carrington event.

[lsvalgaard]

We think that a Carrington-type event might occur at any phase of the cycle, with the possibly exception of the year of solar minimum.
The torsional oscillation has returned to 'normal' so there will be a cycle 25. Also the solar polar fields are now strong enough [especially in the south] to suggest that cycle 25 will be about as strong as cycle 24, and thus not 'superweak'.

[duwayne]

Another early prediction for Cycle 25.... possibly a little weaker than Cycle 24.

wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/19/a-dalton-like-amplitude-for-solar-cycle-25/

[sigurdur]

ca.news.yahoo.com/sun-watching-observatory-celebrates-20-stellar-years-space-141635503.html

[semimadscientist]

Longest stretch of days without sunspots and highest cosmic ray levels since the end of 2010! And we're heading for a deeper minimum than the 2008 one. Let's get this discussion started again, guys!

[semimadscientist]

You're talking about the size of cycle 25; I'm talking about the depth of the cycle 24/25 minimum, but as you mention the size of cycle 25, examine figure 5 in this link:

wattsupwiththat.com/2016/06/04/solar-cycle-update-spotless/

; the speculation on the size of this cycle depends on the solar polar field strength of the Southern hemishere maintaining its upward surge. It's behaviour during cycle 23 should give us reason for caution.

[semimadscientist]

P.S.

I take the point which Dr Svalgaard makes in the first comment here:

wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/28/solar-update-march-2016/

but cosmic ray flux at maximum this cycle was much higher than that of any other cycle of which we have records .Granted this record doesn't constitute many cycles, but by this same token, I'm not sure we can be sure that the rise in cosmic ray influx will be blunted this minimum, going by our small record of cycles for which we have records of said flux.

From what records we have, I think it's more likely that the rise in cosmic rays as we move away from the maximum just past will be steeper than the rise following the maximum of cycle 20, as during the latter cycle there's evidence that something was “dampening” the surge, for want of a more suitable word, as evidenced by the interplanetary magnetic field of that time.

A further point- going back to about 1850, after which there are no gaps in the daily record, it seems that it's perfectly feasible for a minimum following an even- numbered cycle to be “deeper” (as measured by sunspot number at least) than the minima either sides of the minimum, or than both minima as happened at the end of cycle 14. This has nothing to do with the fact of how the cycles are numbered, of course- I'm referring to the repeating behaviour patterns every 2nd cycle.

[lsvalgaard]

Cosmic ray flux:
www.nwu.ac.za/sites/www.nwu.ac.za/files/files/p-nm/SRU%20Neutron%20Monitors%20Monthly%20Graphs.pdf