Solar Cycle 24 Main Discussion XI

[semimadscientist]

Jun 18, 2016 18:31:31 GMT lsvalgaard said:

Cosmic ray flux:
www.nwu.ac.za/sites/www.nwu.ac.za/files/files/p-nm/SRU%20Neutron%20Monitors%20Monthly%20Graphs.pdf

Thanks, Dr Svalgaard. Presumably the higher energy particles represent the higher energy collisions, as reported by the Bartol monitors, Moscow and Oulu?

[duwayne]

As I understand it, the sunspot count is the sum of the counts for individual sunspots. And the count for an individual sunspot is at least 10. The SILSO count on June 24 was 7. The only explanation I can think of is that 7 is an average of observations at different locations around the world. Is there another explanation?

[n3eg]

The fat astronomer lady has sung. It's over. Move along, nothing left to see here...

Huge dip between peaks in solar cycle 25 around 2025. Count on it. First peak maxes out at 65, second at 55 50.

[sigurdur]

www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2016/06/27/sun-has-likely-entered-new-evolutionary-phase-say-astronomers/#339230b1278e

The Sun has likely already entered into a new unpredicted long-term phase of its evolution as a hydrogen-burning main sequence star — one characterized by magnetic sputtering indicative of a more quiescent middle-age. Or so say the authors of a new paper submitted to The Astrophysical Journal Letters.

Using observations of other sunlike stars made by NASA ’s Kepler Space Telescope, the team found that the Sun is currently in a special phase of its magnetic evolution.

[semimadscientist]

Back to solar physics now (as opposed to any arguments for or against any effect on global warming), and as Duwayne has pointed out, I too am finding it a bit difficult understanding how there was thought to have been any semblance of a sunspot on 24th, and none on the 23rd. The reverse was the case from what I could make out.

Somewhat surprising is that we've had no spotless days bar a single day in 2014 until early 2011, then we get about 10 in the space of a month. It may be that the downswing towards minimum at the end of this cycle is faster than the ascent to the maximum just past.

[acidohm]

Jun 28, 2016 18:22:43 GMT semimadscientist said:

Back to solar physics now (as opposed to any arguments for or against any effect on global warming), and as Duwayne has pointed out, I too am finding it a bit difficult understanding how there was thought to have been any semblance of a sunspot on 24th, and none on the 23rd. The reverse was the case from what I could make out.

Somewhat surprising is that we've had no spotless days bar a single day in 2014 until early 2011, then we get about 10 in the space of a month. It may be that the downswing towards minimum at the end of this cycle is faster than the ascent to the maximum just past.

Certainly time will tell!!

I couldn't agree more about the lack of spots......it is very interesting, however often in nature, time reveals itself in ways we cannot have imagined!!


www.solen.info/solar/images/cycle24.png

current progress, updated 01/06/16 already shows a sharp drop looking at Ri.....next update 01/07/16

[semimadscientist]

There may be some parallel with cycle 12:

www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_similar_cycles.png

.

[walnut]

Jun 28, 2016 16:36:50 GMT @codewhacker said:

Jun 28, 2016 14:56:57 GMT sigurdur said:

www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2016/06/27/sun-has-likely-entered-new-evolutionary-phase-say-astronomers/#339230b1278e

The Sun has likely already entered into a new unpredicted long-term phase of its evolution as a hydrogen-burning main sequence star — one characterized by magnetic sputtering indicative of a more quiescent middle-age. Or so say the authors of a new paper submitted to The Astrophysical Journal Letters.

Using observations of other sunlike stars made by NASA ’s Kepler Space Telescope, the team found that the Sun is currently in a special phase of its magnetic evolution.

"The brightness of the Sun changes by about a tenth of one percent from minimum solar activity to maximum solar activity, says Metcalfe. And given current levels of heat trapped by manmade pollution, even if the Sun transitions permanently to a minimum state, he says, the cooling effect on Earth’s climate would still be negligible."

And yet, there seems to be a powerful correlation. The effect of a few ounces of pressure from my foot on a car's brake pedal would not be expected to slow down my fast moving, heavy car but it does, we understand how that works. We don't understand the relationship between solar minimums and cooler climates but a causal relationship might exist.

In one short statement, Metcalfe assumes that the small increase in heat was caused by manmade pollutuion. Then he assumes that there is no mechanism by which a quiet sun might cause a cooler climate. He also assumes, that the current levels of heat could not decrease fairly quickly. Too many assumed variables, his hypothesis loses validity pretty quick.

[semimadscientist]

Please could we stick to Solar Physics in this forum, please? It's going to get busy now, so please could we put talk of climate in the appropriate section.

[pavel]

http://
I'm really afraid that cycle 24 may end in early next year, let say, in March. It will be very interesting what might happen. R soutch has a constant rate of descent. R north for several months loses power, as if falling off a cliff

[semimadscientist]

Aug 13, 2016 11:27:37 GMT pavel said:

http://
I'm really afraid that cycle 24 may end in early next year, let say, in March. It will be very interesting what might happen. R soutch has a constant rate of descent. R north for several months loses power, as if falling off a cliff

I doubt that that'll happen- take cycles 12 and 16, for example, which are similar in a way to the current cycle-



;we have a while to go yet, I think.

Chart: www.solen.info/solar/

[semimadscientist]

Aug 13, 2016 15:10:05 GMT @codewhacker said:

Interesting how the total number in this graph starts of very low right around the maunder minimum.

Here's a chart going back to the early 1600s, showing the decline in Sunspots which lead to the Maunder minimum:



Chart courtesy of:

www.lunarplanner.com/SolarCycles.html

[dontgetoutmuch]

Interesting... 2620 is a reverse polarity sunspot in the southern hemisphere.

[pavel]

On that page we can observe magnetic spectrum on far side of the sun: farside.nso.edu/ , and direction to a very interesting article: www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/337

[dontgetoutmuch]

As the solar minimum approaches, I hope Kevin puts the spotless day count back up on the main page. It was handy last time. (Hint :-))

If I recall correctly, Leif has not put out an official Max SSN number prediction/projection for cycle 25, but he has stated that the polar field strength has sufficient strength for a moderate cycle. I checked his site, but I didn't see a reference, so I could be mistaken. On the other hand, if memory serves... It seems that most cycles in the past have tended to trail off gradually as they come to a close. Cycle 24 seems like it might be tailing off faster then what we have seen in the past, but only time will tell. The current bout of spotless days could just be a wiggle.