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Post by Kevin VE3EN on Aug 4, 2011 20:16:38 GMT
HI,,,does anyone have some input as the this spaceweather.com report? I am new to monitoring spaceweather, and didn't know what they meant by 'strong impact on earth is likely to be major?' Does that mean aurora's? loss of radio? problems with power grid? Any more detailed info welcome please. spaceweather.com report: STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: For the third day in a row, active sunspot 1261 has unleashed a significant M-class solar flare. The latest blast at 0357 UT on August 4th registered M9.3 on the Richter Scale of Flares, almost crossing the threshold into X-territory (X-flares are the most powerful kind). The number of energetic protons around Earth has jumped nearly 100-fold as a result of this event. The eruption propelled a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. Click on the image to view a movie of the expanding cloud recorded by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory: Moving at an estimated speed of 1950 km/s, this CME is expected to sweep up two earlier CMEs already en route. Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab say the combined cloud should reach Earth on August 5th at 13:55 UT plus or minus 7 hours: "The impact on Earth is likely to be major. The estimated maximum geomagnetic activity index level Kp is 7 (Kp ranges from 0 - 9). The flanks of the CME may also impact STEREO A, Mars and Mercury/MESSENGER." High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text, voice. Hi, welcome to my message board. Strong impact simply means that when the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) or material that blasted away from the sun after the Solar Flare will hit earths magnetosphere.... the earth poles will attract all this material and therefore cause the northern lights. Geomagnetic Storming or the strenght of these events are measured from G1 to G5. We can expect G2 to G3. Click this link to find out more about the size of the Geomagnetic Storm classes and its effects or what to expect. www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#GeomagneticStormsHope this helps. Kevin |
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loly
Level 3 Rank
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Post by loly on Aug 5, 2011 21:48:01 GMT
KP=8
Magnetic storm of level G4 (severe) from 18:00 to 21:00 UTC
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lku
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Post by lku on Aug 8, 2011 14:01:19 GMT
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Post by solarlux on Aug 8, 2011 18:06:21 GMT
I realise lots of large spot areas can reduce TSI a bit, but this is a much larger drop than seen previously ? Looking at SC23 provides a reference point. The paper at the link below provides a summary. See the figure at the top of page 4. arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1102/1102.3077v1.pdfThe present swings don't appear to be anything too unusual. |
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Post by ham10m on Aug 8, 2011 20:46:23 GMT
New to the boards but have been a visitor to this site for several years. Great Website by the way. I looked in the solar flare discussion and saw nothing so it seemed this might be the right place to post this. Apologies if it should be somewhere else. www.ibtimes.com/articles/194166/20110808/solar-storms-severe-solar-storms-earth-paralyse-carrington-event.htmUnfortunately, I did not see the source for the information other than NOAA. It sounds extremely menacing. Wondered if one or more of the experts on this board would mind putting this in perspective. Thanks. Mike |
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loly
Level 3 Rank
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Post by loly on Aug 8, 2011 22:13:31 GMT
FLARE M3.5 AND CME
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Post by solarlux on Aug 8, 2011 22:32:46 GMT
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Post by ham10m on Aug 9, 2011 2:38:42 GMT
Thanks for the link. That was helpful. Sounds like the answer is yes there is media hype, and it won't be the end of the world, but could be a very serious matter nonetheless.
Wonder what suggestions experts might have that would minimize our exposure to what are termed Carrington-magnitude events to our power grid. What research is being done along these lines?
Mike
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loly
Level 3 Rank
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Post by loly on Aug 9, 2011 13:49:53 GMT
MAJOR SOLAR FLARE: This morning at 0805 UT, the magnetic canopy of sunspot 1263 erupted, producing a powerful X7-class solar flare: SDO movie. The blast caused a brief HF radio blackout on the daylit side of Earth. SOHO coronagraphs show a CME emerging from the blast site. At most, Earth would received a glancing blow from the flank of the cloud on or about August 11th;
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Post by THEO BAKALEXIS on Aug 9, 2011 21:11:30 GMT
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Post by solarlux on Aug 10, 2011 13:25:49 GMT
Wonder what suggestions experts might have that would minimize our exposure to what are termed Carrington-magnitude events to our power grid. What research is being done along these lines? Quebec spent billions of dollars on upgrades after the 1989 blackout -- I get the sense that the biggest obstacle is funding for adding protective measures. Try googling for "ground induced currents geomagnetic storms" to find more info. I saw that one of the first hits was a OECD report on potential impacts: www.oecd.org/dataoecd/57/25/46891645.pdf |
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beach
New Member
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Post by beach on Aug 11, 2011 16:25:15 GMT
Hello fellow solar weather enthusiasts! I've been looking around for a while now and just now registered because I have a question! Would anybody be able to point me in the direction of an archive which has solar flare GOES classifications for the years of 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2010? I seem to have recorded all other particulars about the flares in those years except for the GOES classifications which I now need for a project I am doing, so any help would be greatly appreciated, thanks!
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Post by Kevin VE3EN on Aug 11, 2011 16:31:22 GMT
Hello fellow solar weather enthusiasts! I've been looking around for a while now and just now registered because I have a question! Would anybody be able to point me in the direction of an archive which has solar flare GOES classifications for the years of 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2010? I seem to have recorded all other particulars about the flares in those years except for the GOES classifications which I now need for a project I am doing, so any help would be greatly appreciated, thanks! For a list of all X-Ray events recorded, go to this link www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/warehouse/Choose the Year Folder... then within the folder you would choose the Events file which would need to be Unzipped. Kevin |
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beach
New Member
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Post by beach on Aug 11, 2011 16:36:45 GMT
Thanks, that really helps a lot! And by the way, the site is great and I show it to any of my friends who are interested in anything related to space.
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Post by andrewuwe on Aug 12, 2011 8:32:43 GMT
Regarding the "for recent times" large TSI drop.
My understanding was that a large spot is darker the average for the Sun but at times of large numbers of spots the Sun is more active and therefore brighter. I have been told this or read this.
However, I think that explanation is wrong. A large sunspot is darker and lowers the TSI but when it goes away the remaining "Fizz" is much brighter. I think it is this Fizz that makes the TSI higher at times of high spot numbers. This time the large spot has rotated off and so TSI has not risen as the Fizz is directed away from Earth. So it is not unusual really. You might want to call the Fizz a Plage but I see it more like when you open a bottle of pop.
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