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Post by byz on Sept 3, 2008 20:10:26 GMT
I used my wood burner today due to the colder conditions here in the uk.
Are we going to see a cold winter?
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justa
New Member
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Post by justa on Sept 4, 2008 15:41:33 GMT
I'd bet on a colder than expected winter in the UK. I live in FL and the hurricane intensity predictions have been getting downgraded for every hurricane so far. Their initial model forcasts are for large, intense hurricanes but as they progress they are downgraded in size and intensity. I.e., they aren't matching their computer model predictions. To me this says the water is not as warm as their computer models predict. This portends lower North Atlantic surface water temperatures for the coming winter which should make for an unseasonably cold winter in the UK.
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Post by byz on Sept 4, 2008 19:35:59 GMT
I'd bet on a colder than expected winter in the UK. I live in FL and the hurricane intensity predictions have been getting downgraded for every hurricane so far. Their initial model forcasts are for large, intense hurricanes but as they progress they are downgraded in size and intensity. I.e., they aren't matching their computer model predictions. To me this says the water is not as warm as their computer models predict. This portends lower North Atlantic surface water temperatures for the coming winter which should make for an unseasonably cold winter in the UK. Great I LOVE SNOW
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Post by Ole Doc Sief on Sept 4, 2008 20:37:50 GMT
Gotta watch tempting the Hurricane gods! Hanna is being sheared and sucking dry air, but Ike is coming in mean and tight, this might be the one that re-develops the Miami architecture that everyone has hated. God made barrier islands for a reason! Don't build on barrier island or you end up in trouble.
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Post by douglavers on Sept 5, 2008 5:07:09 GMT
According to AMSU at 1 km we are now 0.26 degrees F warmer than last year.
This follows an abrupt reversal from about two weeks ago when the temperature was significantly below last year.
It would be interesting to know what causes these sudden shifts, especially as it appears that the Arctic refreeeze is now well underway. Does a patch of the planet suddenly get warmer?!
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Post by walterdnes on Sept 5, 2008 5:31:55 GMT
According to AMSU at 1 km we are now 0.26 degrees F warmer than last year. Is it just me, or does anybody else notice that the datafile hasn't been updated for the 3rd? It should've been ready by 8:30 PM Eastern (0030 Z) It would be interesting to know what causes these sudden shifts, especially as it appears that the Arctic refreeeze is now well underway. Does a patch of the planet suddenly get warmer?! I wonder if it's all the latent heat released by the rain falling from the current hurricanes, and remnants thereof. According to NOAA at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAHPCAT2+shtml/042044.shtml?text parts of Mississipi got up to 20 inches of rain. OUCH.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Sept 5, 2008 7:17:45 GMT
To give you some idea, (I worked it out from figures for Megatons of water etc) There's about 7 Hiroshima A-bombs of latent heat energy in a typical Hurricane!
But one thing I noticed was that Earth passed close to Jupiter in the Southern Winter and will be opposite Jupiter in The Northern Summer.
Since Earth orbits the center of gravity of the Universe* solar system, we should have had a colder than normal southern winter, and may have a slightly milder winter up North. But I haven't got access to the ephemerals, and haven't anything to support this effect being significant.
* I'm Dyslexic too! hehe.
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Post by dopeydog on Sept 5, 2008 13:08:49 GMT
"Center of gravity of the Universe" I think that whirring sound you here is Copernicus spinning in his grave.
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Post by Ole Doc Sief on Sept 6, 2008 0:35:50 GMT
I am pretty sure he meant the center of our Galaxy... but I'll believe Jupiter affects our weather when Hell freezes over. It is definitely getting cooler here in Minnesota, we are enjoying temps about 30 days ahead of average, which sounds great if this was April and we we enjoying May weather, but on this side of the curve, it ain't so great. I am just hoping Hanna pulled enough heat energy out of Florida seas that Ike sputters out before it trashes Miami. Man, a Cat 3 dead on strike to Miami is going to be a killer and destroyer. Hence why I live in the hurricane season in Minnesota and am dreaming of the days of sufferring Minnesota winters in Naples Florida
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 6, 2008 1:00:38 GMT
"To give you some idea, (I worked it out from figures for Megatons of water etc) There's about 7 Hiroshima A-bombs of latent heat energy in a typical Hurricane!"
If you look at www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D7.htmlYou will find it is probably higher than that (wouldn't it be nice if meteorologists stuck to normal SI units )
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Post by byz on Sept 6, 2008 10:40:31 GMT
Looks like Autumn has arrived in the UK. Temps for September are fast heading for the average for the month for 71-01 and we are only six days in! We've had the woodburner on twice now and my plants are suffering
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Post by byz on Sept 6, 2008 17:18:59 GMT
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Post by socold on Sept 6, 2008 18:46:21 GMT
Looks like Autumn has arrived in the UK. Temps for September are fast heading for the average for the month for 71-01 and we are only six days in! We've had the woodburner on twice now and my plants are suffering Maybe that has to do more with the lack of sunlight and all the rain and cloud. Every month in the UK this year has been above average bar March.
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Post by stranger on Sept 6, 2008 20:00:16 GMT
From the computer models it looks like Ike is taking dead aim at the Mouth of the Mississippi, that is, New Orleans. So tomorrow is get the schedule at the local Emergency Center set so no one will be asked to work emergency communications 96 hours straight again. That is hard on a body.
The day before yesterday it was Miami, yesterday it was Tampa, and today it's New Orleans. Of course, that is an example of the highly touted computer modeling the AGW group depends on to prove their case.
Actually, Kiwistonewall is probably correct. Earth orbits the center of mass of the Solar System, when orbits the Center of Mass of the Milky Way Galaxy, which probably orbits the center of mass of this Universe.
However, I expect a colder than normal winter. As Doc Sief says, temperatures are about 30 days ahead of the season. Temperature wise, it's early October in one very wet and windy fall here on the South side.
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Post by Ole Doc Sief on Sept 7, 2008 4:14:15 GMT
Actually, Kiwistonewall is probably correct. Earth orbits the center of mass of the Solar System, when orbits the Center of Mass of the Milky Way Galaxy, which probably orbits the center of mass of this Universe. However, I expect a colder than normal winter. As Doc Sief says, temperatures are about 30 days ahead of the season. Temperature wise, it's early October in one very wet and windy fall here on the South side. Yeah, snow next week in Northern Manitoba, and snow by end of September in Winnepeg, that would be about 30-45 days ahead of schedule I guess we will see shortly! Harvest Moon coming and ain't a lot to harvest!
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