Chance of a new Maunder Minimum/cooling

[sigurdur]

glenn:
Another thing to watch for is a Bond type event. WE are well within the error bars of the timescale that we should/could have one.

They have been pretty durn predictable for the last 23 of them.....but there is always an exception to the rule......ya know?

[trbixler]

More I hope he is wrong. Of course the action to be taken is exactly opposite to the AGW mantra.

"Death toll from Europe cold snap passes 300"



"KIEV—The deadly cold snap that has gripped Europe for more than a week wrought more havoc across the continent Sunday, straining emergency services, grounding flights and pushing the death toll past 300.

The homeless population has borne the brunt of the suffering, with dozens of transients freezing to death in unheated apartments, fire escapes or in makeshift street shelters.

French authorities on Sunday found the body of a homeless man who had frozen to death, bringing to at least 306 the number of cold-related deaths reported across Europe.

With night-time temperatures plunging as low as minus 40 Celsius in Finland, the grim winter toll also rose in other countries."

newsinfo.inquirer.net/140433/death-toll-from-europe-cold-snap-passes-300

[glennkoks]

sigurdur, Bond events happen with a periodicity of 1400 years + or - 500 years. Since the last one was 1400 years ago we are well within the margin of error. Personally I think the tell tale sign is not cold winters as much as it is cold summers. We have as long as can be remembered cold winters. Some colder than others but cold summers with crop disruptions have been relatively rare in modern times.

Time will tell but I hope we don't see anything as severe as a bond event.

[stranger]

Well, running the data available in 1989, all of the data, through analysis returned a 95% probability of a "Dalton minimum," an 80% probability of another Maunder type temperature minimum, and a 4% probability of the onset of another Ice Age.

Take a little temperature of time and we shall see what we get. Hopefully it will be no worse than a Maunder. Not that discovering what sort of cycle we are sinking into will prevent the global warming theists from disputing the ice everyone else can see on the river.

Stranger

[trbixler]

More on the Ferrari Scout analogy. I must admit it does not take my scout 9 to 11 years to make a turn. Further Livingston and Penn have no prediction as to the return of sunspots only their demise.

"Do Latest Solar Studies Confirm Upcoming Global Cooling?"




"Since we are now in the equivalent lagged year[2012-9=2003] and will next experience the solar effects of the decline of solar cycle #23 [the solar period of 2000 to 2008 ], we can expect cooler weather for at least 6 years plus another nine years after the next warming effect of the solar active period of cycle #24 [ maximum around 2013 to 2014.] So I see no significant warming for 20 years at least [2030 earliest]. This is what ocean cycles like PDO predict and what the 60 year climate cycle predicts but now we may possibly have one of many hypothesis of how the sun does all this."

wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/13/do-latest-solar-studies-confirm-upcoming-global-cooling/#more-56469

[trbixler]

:Product: Daily Solar Data DSD.txt
:Issued: 0225 UT 29 Feb 2012
#
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Please send comments and suggestions to [e-mail]
#
# Last 30 Days Daily Solar Data
#
# Sunspot Stanford GOES15
# Radio SESC Area Solar X-Ray ------ Flares ------
# Flux Sunspot 10E-6 New Mean Bkgd X-Ray Optical
# Date 10.7cm Number Hemis. Regions Field Flux C M X S 1 2 3
#---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 01 30 114 76 330 0 -999 B2.1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 01 31 117 71 340 0 -999 B2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 01 118 85 420 0 -999 B2.2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 02 118 85 420 0 -999 B2.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 03 111 39 280 0 -999 B2.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 04 107 43 270 1 -999 B1.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 05 103 37 170 0 -999 B1.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 06 112 27 210 0 -999 B2.2 1 1 0 4 0 0 0
2012 02 07 107 24 210 0 -999 B2.5 5 0 0 2 1 0 0
2012 02 08 97 28 90 1 -999 B3.1 1 0 0 3 0 0 0
2012 02 09 99 33 150 1 -999 B2.7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 10 111 51 120 1 -999 B2.7 2 0 0 4 0 0 0
2012 02 11 112 62 430 0 -999 B3.0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 12 110 80 550 3 -999 B2.4 3 0 0 1 0 0 0
2012 02 13 108 59 450 0 -999 B2.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 14 107 64 420 0 -999 B1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 15 105 40 310 0 -999 B1.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 16 103 41 300 0 -999 B1.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 17 104 53 250 0 -999 B1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 18 104 63 260 1 -999 B1.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 19 105 69 180 1 -999 B2.0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
2012 02 20 111 72 370 0 -999 B2.4 3 0 0 4 0 0 0
2012 02 21 103 61 390 0 -999 B2.1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 22 104 31 270 0 -999 B1.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 23 103 52 280 1 -999 B2.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 24 109 47 300 1 -999 B2.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 25 108 47 310 0 -999 B2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 02 26 107 58 290 2 -999 B2.3 2 0 0 1 0 0 0
2012 02 27 106 45 130 0 -999 B2.0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2012 02 28 103 35 130 0 -999 B1.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt

[glennkoks]

trblixer, the sun has been very, very quite considering we are only a year away from a solar maximum. Climatologically intresting times we live in.

[trbixler]

"GISS finally concedes a significant role for the sun in climate"

"The abstract of the paper says:

“The Sun may be entering a weak phase, analogous to the Maunder minimum, which could lead to more frequent flooding in the northeastern US at this multidecadal timescale.”

It is interesting to see this solar-hydro relationship defined in the USA. Previous similar works include defining a solar-hyrdo relationship to Nile River flow in Africa."


wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/29/giss-finally-concedes-a-significant-role-for-the-sun-in-climate/

[trbixler]

2012 02 29 102 22 130 0 -999 B1.5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0

www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt

[trbixler]

AGW??? We will see in the coming years about the all powerful CO2.
I hope that it is as powerful as Mr. Green touts but I am afraid it is a trace gas that has been terrifically over emphasized for political motives.

"The sun is still in a funk: sunspot numbers are dropping when they should be rising"







wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/02/the-sun-is-still-in-a-funk-sunspot-numbers-are-dropping-when-they-should-be-rising/#more-58078

[trbixler]

Oh the science of it all.

"Nigel Calder reports on “Yet another trick of cosmic rays”"

"Now for the first time, an unexpected trick that Mother Nature had up her sleeve is revealed by experiment. The discovery is elegantly explained by a new way in which sulphuric acid forms in the atmosphere, as announced in a paper by Svensmark and two of his colleagues in Denmark’s National Space Institute in Copenhagen, Martin Enghoff and Jens Olaf Pepke Pedersen. They have submitted it to Physical Review Letters. A preprint is available on arXiv here arxiv.org/abs/1202.5156v1"


wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/01/nigel-calder-reports-on-yet-another-trick-of-cosmic-rays/

[trbixler]

2012 02 29 102 22 130 0 -999 B1.5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
2012 03 01 103 24 110 1 -999 B1.7 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
2012 03 02 108 24 100 0 -999 B3.0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0

[socold]

I think txbixler we'll end up discovering the Sun has been terrifically over emphasized for political motives. I mean what other conclusion will you be able to reach if the warming continues despite the quiet sun and the "maunder minimum" doesn't happen?

[Andrew]

Mar 3, 2012 11:45:25 GMT socold said:

I think txbixler we'll end up discovering the Sun has been terrifically over emphasized for political motives. I mean what other conclusion will you be able to reach if the warming continues despite the quiet sun and the "maunder minimum" doesn't happen?

And if the powers that be have not latched onto terrifying warming as a way of uniting the people behind their ability to justify their existance thru endless taxation, while supposedly acting as our guardians, I will be very surprised indeed.

Nobody seems to be allowed to think freely on this topic anymore. Both sides seem to require faith where any who disagree are the enemy or are heretics.

Look at the evidence here on this board. Nobody is really interested in seeking concensus, every damn thing gets spun to the advantage of the particular faith involved.

[sigurdur]

Iceskater:
There really is no spin. You had a disagreement about the mechanics of cooling with Magellan and Icefisher. Instead of staying on topic, at times it became a personality difference.

Backradiation is not nearly as clear cut as some would believe. However, with the noise on the subject, the primary item of physics was lost. All matter is continuously cooling. That is basic fact. How it is transferred, absorbed, etc is the mechanics, which are not totally, nor really well understood.
I lost interest in the back radiation thread when discussing the scienfic merits, pro and con, degenerated.

As far as climate concensus, that is impossable to achieve as there is so much that we do not understand, or do not have knowledge of why.....one must keep an open mind.

Prof Brown posted a very apt reply at WUWT to the consensus idea.

I enjoy socolds posts because I might learn something. I very much enjoy discussion about climate when done in a respectful and informative fashion. Ya see, I am one of those Icelanders that you hear about. There is a reason Iceland has the highest level of cognitative ability. It is in our genes.....LOL.

There is a reason I post papers on this board. It is to generate interest, and discussion about those papers. The ole I don't know much, and I might glean a new perspective from someone elses perception and cognitative ability thing.

Read Dr. Browns post......it might open your eyes.

Dr. Mann thinks it has become a climate war, he is wrong in that thinking. It has become a pure physics war.....the physics as known shows what "should" be happening.......reality is trumping the physics showing us what we don't "know" about what is happening.