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Post by throttleup on Mar 4, 2012 3:00:09 GMT
It does look a tad more blue than yellow, sig... I wonder what kind of winter awaits our friends down under. |
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Post by trbixler on Mar 14, 2012 13:10:18 GMT
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Post by woodstove on Mar 14, 2012 13:16:31 GMT
As Leif says, welcome to solar max.  |
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Post by trbixler on Mar 14, 2012 13:20:46 GMT
As Leif says, welcome to solar max. Makes one wonder what solar min will look like. Livingston and Penn say maybe a flat line. |
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 14, 2012 16:26:50 GMT
This is a very interesting time to study the sun. How lucky we are to have a few very proficient astro folks helping us understand.
I can only say again how welcome it is to have an expert answer questions on this board.
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 15, 2012 0:38:16 GMT
Sunspots are another one of those grandfathered-in proxy metrics. Not only that but the way they are counted is somewhat inventive. is there a better metric for measuring the Sun's activity such as 10Be? And yes I realize that the Chinese were coiunting sunspots (although not with Wolf numbers) - but the 10Be is available in core samples etc. It may just be a more reliable way of assessing the Sun's activity.
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Post by trbixler on Mar 15, 2012 3:35:06 GMT
Archibald has defined this effect. Interesting to see how it bears out. "The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24" "Abstract Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least View the MathML source from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25–56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solar signal." www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682612000417 |
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Post by trbixler on Mar 15, 2012 12:22:10 GMT
prediction from Archibald.  Figure 9: Solar Cycles 1749 – 2040 The large decline in the sunspot number and F 10.7 flux at the beginning of the year, prior to the recent major flare, suggests that Solar Cycle 24 will look like Solar Cycle 5 in having a low base of activity with periodic spikes. The estimate of 7 for the peak of Solar Cycle 25 is from Livingston and Penn. wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/15/solar-update-march-2012/#more-59200 |
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Post by trbixler on Apr 7, 2012 3:35:44 GMT
2012 03 29 112 100 370 1 -999 B2.5 5 0 0 3 0 0 0 2012 03 30 111 93 370 0 -999 B1.9 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2012 03 31 110 96 290 2 -999 B2.6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2012 04 01 107 50 200 0 -999 B1.9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2012 04 02 106 67 250 2 -999 B2.4 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2012 04 03 104 62 220 0 -999 B2.2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2012 04 04 102 60 220 0 -999 B1.5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2012 04 05 101 50 180 0 -999 B2.0 3 0 0 3 1 0 0 2012 04 06 97 39 210 0 -999 B1.6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt |
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Post by trbixler on Apr 11, 2012 14:18:10 GMT
Solar max?
2012 04 05 101 50 180 0 -999 B2.0 3 0 0 3 1 0 0
2012 04 06 97 39 210 0 -999 B1.6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2012 04 07 99 38 110 0 -999 B1.5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 04 08 93 25 130 0 -999 B1.2 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
2012 04 09 95 24 130 0 -999 B1.1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
2012 04 10 93 24 15 1 -999 B1.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 11, 2012 22:01:50 GMT
tfbixler:
Would appear that this is a somewhat different solar max?
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