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Post by socold on Oct 29, 2008 20:21:50 GMT
I was looking at the UAH daily sat data. Note the spike upward the last few days? That is the oceans belching out heat. Watch as it drops back again. This cycle will continue although the peaks are difficult to predict. AGW believers, don't get too excited when temperatures rise; it will not last. The UAH anomoly still has only rose significantly compared to last year. The reason it is beginning to overtake last years is simply because currently we are warming out of a la nina wheras last year we were dropping into one. At some point there has to be a crossover. UAH anomolies for December 2008 and January 2009 will almost definitately be higher than the anomolies for last December and January.
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Post by woodstove on Oct 29, 2008 22:08:49 GMT
Or, Socold, the early-season snowstorm in the Mountain West of the United States two weeks ago, the early-season snowstorm in the Northeast yesterday, and the early-season snowstorm in the United Kingdom and Spain yesterday are proof that cold created by Svensmark clouds -- and the negative PDO -- has taken root. The re-freeze rate in the Arctic would also suggest that something other than recovery from a La Nina is under way. It hadn't snowed in London in October since the 1930s. Coincidence?
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Post by tacoman25 on Oct 29, 2008 22:23:27 GMT
I was looking at the UAH daily sat data. Note the spike upward the last few days? That is the oceans belching out heat. Watch as it drops back again. This cycle will continue although the peaks are difficult to predict. AGW believers, don't get too excited when temperatures rise; it will not last. The UAH anomoly still has only rose significantly compared to last year. The reason it is beginning to overtake last years is simply because currently we are warming out of a la nina wheras last year we were dropping into one. At some point there has to be a crossover. UAH anomolies for December 2008 and January 2009 will almost definitately be higher than the anomolies for last December and January. Most likely. But what if that doesn't happen? What explanation will you offer?
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Post by socold on Oct 29, 2008 23:08:21 GMT
I won't have an explaination, I think it very very unlikely that the upcoming dec and jan will be colder than last year to the point that I would be beyond suprised if it happened.
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Post by dopeydog on Oct 30, 2008 16:48:25 GMT
The CFS continues to show a dropping of sst in the Nino 3.4. It must be down to -1.4 today. This drop in the CFS seems to have accelerated over the last couple of weeks, although Joe Bastardi claims that the CFS tends to show more of what is happening than what will happen. But you don't see a hint of El Nino.
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Post by twawki on Oct 31, 2008 1:15:23 GMT
Looks like our farming section will continue to come out of drought conditions if we continue to get more La Ninas "In no part of the country is there a consistent tendency towards "below average" rainfall in La Niña years. " www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ninacomp.shtml
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Post by twawki on Oct 31, 2008 1:19:33 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 31, 2008 1:22:27 GMT
I won't have an explaination, I think it very very unlikely that the upcoming dec and jan will be colder than last year to the point that I would be beyond suprised if it happened. Well we have only 3 months to wait to see what 'beyond surprised' means
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Post by twawki on Oct 31, 2008 1:27:58 GMT
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Post by twawki on Oct 31, 2008 1:29:32 GMT
I won't have an explaination, I think it very very unlikely that the upcoming dec and jan will be colder than last year to the point that I would be beyond suprised if it happened. hey Cth does that mean if its colder you will abandon AGW? and if not at what point would you?
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Post by socold on Nov 1, 2008 2:20:00 GMT
I won't have an explaination, I think it very very unlikely that the upcoming dec and jan will be colder than last year to the point that I would be beyond suprised if it happened. hey Cth does that mean if its colder you will abandon AGW? and if not at what point would you? I would become doubtful of it if cooling/flat temperature continues up to 2015 and for each year after that my doubt would increase rapidly.
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Post by ron on Nov 1, 2008 2:36:04 GMT
You're not already getting the littlest bit doubtful after 6 or 8 or 9 or whatever years, which would be at the very extreme end of the scale for a cooling period in any model???
If that is the case that the physical observations have been flat to lower and are now at the extreme end of the probability for longevity of a trend reversal, every month that passes dramatically increases the liklihood that the models are wrong.
Doesn't it?
After 10 flips of a coin with all of them coming up "heads", aren't you beginning to think that it may be a two headed coin, or something else is affecting the test?
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Post by twawki on Nov 1, 2008 5:26:24 GMT
hey Cth does that mean if its colder you will abandon AGW? and if not at what point would you? I would become doubtful of it if cooling/flat temperature continues up to 2015 and for each year after that my doubt would increase rapidly. Aaaah 2015 mid way through a cool PDO, more likely a la nina year, potentially delayed effects of low solar output with potential ongoing reduced solar activity. Bit risky you know. What if temps over the next year dropped 1d celcius would you give up then?
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Post by socold on Nov 1, 2008 15:46:15 GMT
You're not already getting the littlest bit doubtful after 6 or 8 or 9 or whatever years, which would be at the very extreme end of the scale for a cooling period in any model??? No as it isn't long enough. The last 2 years with the La Nina are write off anyway, they were always going to be lower than previous years whether or not there is a ~0.2C/decade longterm trend.
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Post by dopeydog on Nov 1, 2008 16:03:39 GMT
Well Cthulhu,
You may want to write off 2009 also. The CFS is trending lower and lower. The ensemble is down to -1.4 with recent runs as low as -2.5 (3 below -2.0). Now I wouldn't bet my house on the predictability of the CFS (another model), but I did notice that the likelyhood of a El Nino is down to 2%.
"What we have here is a failure to warm"
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