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Post by sigurdur on Jul 4, 2012 4:01:18 GMT
I still think the 4 or slightly below is going to capture this years minimum.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 4, 2012 5:53:49 GMT
I still think the 4 or slightly below is going to capture this years minimum. Sigurdur, Looks like you have a pretty good bet going at this point. I had originally guessed about 4.3 a while back, but I am now thinking about how the weather changed in July the past two years. Right now, that shift is not in the forecast, and more importantly the ice is quite thin. I think the accumulated thinness of the Arctic Sea ice is the key. It simply takes less heat to melt thinner ice.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Jul 4, 2012 12:18:36 GMT
I think the Ice melt will slow & the minimum extent will be much higher than most think. I think close to 2009 or 2010 & higher than 2011. The outer ice (mostly already melted) was thin, but the core is stronger than last year in many places imo. (I have checked visual images against last year & see much stronger ice.) I do not think that there is real data that shows anything much about ice thickness, given the uncertainties, so anything might happen!
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Post by neilhamp on Jul 5, 2012 2:48:54 GMT
Welcome back kiwi. I always enjoyed your informative comments. Have you voted in our 2012 arctic ice extent poll?
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Post by Ratty on Jul 5, 2012 11:17:28 GMT
Welcome back kiwi. I always enjoyed your informative comments. Have you voted in our 2012 arctic ice extent poll? More important, will he vote for the "greatest moral imperative of our time" in the Australian general election in 2013.
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Post by throttleup on Jul 5, 2012 12:30:23 GMT
Welcome back kiwi. I always enjoyed your informative comments. Have you voted in our 2012 arctic ice extent poll? More important, will he vote for the "greatest moral imperative of our time" in the Australian general election in 2013. ratty, I've read (via JoNova) how some Aussies are taking their carbon tax 'rebate' (bribe?) and donating it to causes and individuals to defeat the carbon tax and Julia herself next election.
Is that getting much press locally? Does the general level of disgust get discussed and covered on the news or does your media totally miss the obvious to focus on minutiae that fits their agenda (like our liberal media here)?
The irony here is so... ironic.
Are there any local elections of note before the general election from which one might gauge the sentiment of the voters?
My best wishes to all of you who only ask for sanity and truthfulness in their elected leaders. We're fighting the same battle here.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 5, 2012 13:48:21 GMT
More important, will he vote for the "greatest moral imperative of our time" in the Australian general election in 2013. ratty, I've read (via JoNova) how some Aussies are taking their carbon tax 'rebate' (bribe?) and donating it to causes and individuals to defeat the carbon tax and Julia herself next election.
Is that getting much press locally? Does the general level of disgust get discussed and covered on the news or does your media totally miss the obvious to focus on minutiae that fits their agenda (like our liberal media here)?
The irony here is so... ironic.
Are there any local elections of note before the general election from which one might gauge the sentiment of the voters?
My best wishes to all of you who only ask for sanity and truthfulness in their elected leaders. We're fighting the same battle here.Throttleup, Your "liberals" are our Labor; our "liberals" are supposed to be "conservatives" (whatever that means in 2012). FWIW, recent elections have seen our "liberals" (=Democrats?) booted out of office in four of our six states. The most recent was where I live where our "conservatives" won 78 of the 89 seats. One of the first actions of our new Premier was to dismantle the State's Climate Change Department, run by the former Premier's husband. Crooks !! There is some hope, but our Federal Government, dominated by liberals and the greens are hell bent on taking us to a "clean energy future" irrespective of the cost. They have imposed a carbon tax and a mining super profits tax .... both penalising the productive sectors of our economy. There is rarely anything sceptical of AGW reported in our papers. Sigh ... Ratty
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Post by icefisher on Jul 5, 2012 17:21:14 GMT
Throttleup, Your "liberals" are our Labor; our "liberals" are supposed to be "conservatives" (whatever that means in 2012). FWIW, recent elections have seen our "liberals" (=Democrats?) booted out of office in four of our six states. The most recent was where I live where our "conservatives" won 78 of the 89 seats. One of the first actions of our new Premier was to dismantle the State's Climate Change Department, run by the former Premier's husband. Crooks !! There is some hope, but our Federal Government, dominated by liberals and the greens are hell bent on taking us to a "clean energy future" irrespective of the cost. They have imposed a carbon tax and a mining super profits tax .... both penalising the productive sectors of our economy. There is rarely anything sceptical of AGW reported in our papers. Sigh ... Ratty I'm confused. Here in the US Liberals are associated with democrats and conservatives associated with republicans. Liberals are now dominated by socialists and conservatives. . . .who knows who they are dominated by. So if your "Liberals" (capitalized) are conservatives. . . .they would not be our "Democrats" (also capitalized) here.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 8, 2012 1:52:57 GMT
The Arctic Sea Ice melt has now entered it's most rapid stage by comparison with historical data. Interestingly, the weather forecast at Euro (N-Hem), is now predicting a change in the weather over the Arctic Sea in the middle of next week where low pressure becomes a prominent feature over the Arctic Sea. This weather pattern is reminiscent of 2010 where similar weather resulted in a substantial reduction of Sea Ice melt in July 2010.
One question now being discussed is whether the ice has fundamentally changed so that such a weather pattern will have the same effect in 2012, or not. A more basic question is, since this is just a forecast, will this weather pattern actually form and if so, will it persist; of course.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 8, 2012 2:07:00 GMT
Tying up a loose end, the breakup of the Point Barrow Alaska fast ice is traditionally something Arctic Sea Ice junkies follow. This year it was kind of cloudy, and then the wind drove the sea ice up against the coast, plus the old Barrow website didn't have much to say.
Turns out that the Barrow breakup this year is being reported as June 29, which is kind of early. That is of some note because the winter of 2012 was said to be quite cold on the Alaska side as evidenced by the large Bering sea ice extent.
On a related note, the Chukchi Sea has been reported as being full of relatively thick, multi-year ice. This region is one to watch in July.
Also, a Russian source recently reported that sea ice thickness in the East Siberian Sea was somewhat greater than normal, in contrast to the Laptev and Kara which are thin; (forget the Barentz - it's already gone).
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 8, 2012 2:23:04 GMT
Thanks thermostat.
I appreciate the change in attitude that you have presented. Your information is up to date and the thought process orderly.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 8, 2012 2:31:10 GMT
The breakup of the ice bridge in the Nares Strait on the Northwest coast of Greenland a while back was of significance because this channel provides a conduit for multi-year ice export from the Arctic and can affect the Arctic Sea Ice minimum. The satellite image from yesterday gives a good view of how this breakup has progressed rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2012188.terra.4km (You can zoom in my clicking on the region of interest, and can then zoom in further by selecting "View alternate pixel size" eg 250. Further regarding Greenland, there has also been some discussion about the fast ice on the northeastern coast of Greenland (see rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r02c03.2012189.terra This is persistent fast ice in a region of the Greenland coast that was ice free at times during the Holocene thermal maximum. There is speculation that there could be substantial melt here in 2012.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 8, 2012 2:42:33 GMT
Thanks thermostat. I appreciate the change in attitude that you have presented. Your information is up to date and the thought process orderly. Sigurdur, To quote an icon from a previous generation; “We’ll meet on edges, soon,” said I Proud ’neath heated brow Ah, but I was so much older then I’m younger than that now.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 10, 2012 3:09:58 GMT
A key element related to the present melt is the condition of the 'Western Arctic Sea'. This area was reported to have experienced an unusually cold winter as evidenced in particular by the record sea ice extent in the Bering Sea. The Bering Sea ice has now melted away but the question remains, how will the past winter affect the present melt? In particular there is a question whether 2012 could experience a new record Arctic Sea Ice melt. Conditions in the "Western Arctic" ie. the Chukchi Sea and Eastern Siberian Sea in particular are an important factor in addressing this question. These areas were most affected by the cold winter of 2011-2012. In this regard it is interesting to note that the present record melt of 2007 appears to have been significantly affected by a substantial influx of warm water via the Bering Strait; see "The 2007 Bering Strait oceanic heat flux and anomalous Arctic sea-ice retreat. 2010. Rebecca A. Woodgate,1 Tom Weingartner,2 and Ron Lindhttp://psc.apl.washington.edu/lindsay/pdf_files/Woodgget%20etal%202009%20GRL%20-%202007%20Bering%20Strait%20heat%20flux.pdf. Most relevanlty and in contrast to 2007 this year the Bering Sea has been anomolously cold. Thus heat influx similar to 2007appears to be highly unlikely. The implication is that a melt pattern similar to 2007 is unlikely to occur in 2012. That said, 2012 is not 2007. Five years have gone by and the Arctic Sea Ice has continued to lose multi-year ice. Ice volume is at a record low according to the University of Washington Polar Science Center psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.png?%3C?php%20echo%20time%28%29%20?The implication is that it may not take the unusual convergence of events of 2007 to produce the next Arctic Sea Ice minimum. The extensive melt in the Barents and Kara Seas, for example demonstrate a significant difference from back in 2007. In any event, it currently appears likely that 2012 will continue the ongoing 21st century trend of Arctic Sea Ice melting. The next two months will tell how it turns out.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 10, 2012 3:14:46 GMT
Thanks thermostat. I was going to explore the changes as of late, and you saved me the time.
I still think the melt, when all said and done, is going to be slightly under 4.0.
Watch the east side.
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