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Post by sigurdur on May 15, 2012 2:23:13 GMT
Summer is not over yet so there is still time for the prediction to come to pass.
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Post by sigurdur on May 15, 2012 2:24:08 GMT
And if you believe it will be ice free the summer of 2012, please call me. I have some really great products to sell.
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Post by throttleup on May 18, 2012 12:52:16 GMT
Posting this here as it is somewhat relevant:Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) launched the Global Changing Observation Mission 1st - Water “SHIZUKU” (GCOM-W1) and the Korean Multi-purpose Satellite 3 (KOMPSAT-3) of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) by the H-IIA Launch Vehicle No. 21 (H-IIA F21) at 1:39 a.m. on May 18, 2012 (Japan Standard Time, JST) from the Tanegashima Space Center. The launch vehicle flew smoothly, and, at about 16 minutes and 3 seconds after liftoff, the separation of the KOMPSAT-3, then at about 22 minutes and 59 seconds after liftoff, the separation of the SHIZUKU were confirmed respectively. www.jaxa.jp/press/2012/05/20120518_h2af21_e.htmlJapan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) confirmed that the Global Change Observation Mission 1st - Water "SHIZUKU" (GCOM-W1) successfully deployed the antenna of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2)* via image data received at the Katsuura Tracking and Communication station. AMSR2 antenna deployment images are attached below. The satellite is currently in good health. * Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer2 (AMSR2) The AMSR2 measures electromagnetic waves called microwaves (six bandwidths between 7 GHz and 89 GHz) emitted from nature, such as the ground and ocean surface as well as objects in the atmosphere, to observe eight geophysical parameters (integrated water vapor, integrated cloud liquid water, precipitation, sea surface temperature, sea surface wind speed, sea ice concentration, snow depth, soil moisture content). www.jaxa.jp/press/2012/05/20120518_shizuku_amsr2_e.html
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Post by phydeaux2363 on May 18, 2012 13:16:12 GMT
Thanks, Mr. Throttle. Does anyone know when the satellite will be calibrated and operational so as to begin providing data?
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Post by throttleup on May 18, 2012 16:11:11 GMT
Thanks, Mr. Throttle. Does anyone know when the satellite will be calibrated and operational so as to begin providing data? phydeaux, I don't know how long their checkout period will be. Deployments, calibrations and basic checkout of a new satellite is usually on the order of weeks.
Here is their website:www.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/gcom_w/index_e.html ... Hopefully they'll keep us informed as to their progress. They seem to be pretty open with their status so that's probably the best place to go to get the latest.
However, I just found this: (note the date!)from: www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htmThat was fast! Maybe they don't need to calibrate or wait for thermal settling. What do I know?
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Post by throttleup on May 21, 2012 13:35:33 GMT
Through the bottleneck...
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Post by kiwistonewall on May 22, 2012 22:06:07 GMT
The JAXA data since the Oct 2011 failure has been from Windsat. They'll need a period of cross calibration before they use the new satellite:
Jan. 1980 - Jul. 1987 : SMMR • Aug. 1987 - May 2002 : SSM/I • Jun. 2002 - Oct. 2011 : AMSR-E • Oct. 2011 - the present : WindSat
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Post by kiwistonewall on May 22, 2012 22:11:26 GMT
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Post by throttleup on May 22, 2012 22:18:04 GMT
The JAXA data since the Oct 2011 failure has been from Windsat. They'll need a period of cross calibration before they use the new satellite: Jan. 1980 - Jul. 1987 : SMMR • Aug. 1987 - May 2002 : SSM/I • Jun. 2002 - Oct. 2011 : AMSR-E • Oct. 2011 - the present : WindSat Thanks, Kiwi! I thought they were getting that data mightly quickly!
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Post by kiwistonewall on May 22, 2012 22:26:58 GMT
And on a personal note: My wife has been diagnosed with MS, and I am now her full time carer - which means I am doing most of the housework, half the cooking etc. (She has had this for many years, but it was hidden by the fact that we thought it was just slow recovery from a couple of fights with cancer many years ago). But I am happy to see the sunrise each day - Not that I get up to actually watch it!! So I am going to be a very occasional visitor - but man, its cold this year in Australia!
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Post by trbixler on May 23, 2012 0:57:56 GMT
kiwistonewall My heart goes out to you and your wife. Try to remember to keep a happy thought and smile as these are very important when facing difficulties.
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Post by thermostat on May 23, 2012 5:03:01 GMT
The 2012 Arctic melt has now begun. Looks like another substantial melt is in store. Given the present fragile state of the Arctic Sea ice, a record low minimum sea ice extent might well occur this year. In any event, the recent trend of reduced summer minimal extent appears inevitable this year.
Specifically of relevance here, the late onset of polar freeze in the arctic last fall, followed by the anomalously warm temperatures in the polar regions this past winter have resulted in an arctic ice pack of reduced thickness. This is especially the case on the Siberian side.
Obviously, the late season freezing in the Bering Sea is irrelevant to any long term analysis, even as the melting of this thin ice accounts for the current rapid changes in Arctic Sea ice extent.
Of course, the weather will be the ultimate decider as usual, but I'm guessing up front that 2012 will approach record low Arctic Sea ice extent.
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Post by neilhamp on May 23, 2012 6:58:27 GMT
Hmm! You seem very confident of a low ice minimum, Thermostat I thought we might see a slight rise on the 2011 levels In previous years we have operated a poll on sea ice minimum Are such facilaties still available?
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Post by throttleup on May 23, 2012 11:21:53 GMT
And on a personal note: My wife has been diagnosed with MS, and I am now her full time carer - which means I am doing most of the housework, half the cooking etc. (She has had this for many years, but it was hidden by the fact that we thought it was just slow recovery from a couple of fights with cancer many years ago). But I am happy to see the sunrise each day - Not that I get up to actually watch it!! So I am going to be a very occasional visitor - but man, its cold this year in Australia! Kiwi, My best wishes to you and your wife. No doubt the circumstances involve many challenges on both your parts, but I wish you both the very best.
Your insight, information and intelligence has always been a welcome sight on this board and it's always a bit better when you visit. Nonetheless, enjoy the sunrise today -- both of you!
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Post by thermostat on May 25, 2012 0:58:27 GMT
Hmm! You seem very confident of a low ice minimum, Thermostat I thought we might see a slight rise on the 2011 levels In previous years we have operated a poll on sea ice minimum Are such facilaties still available? neilhamp, I'm curious why you are suspecting a slight rise in Arctic Sea Ice area this summer, given the present state of the ice? Obviously, as I said above, the summer weather is the key variable in determining the ultimate result, but after years of decline, the Arctic Sea ice is reduced in volume and more susceptible to reduction in minimal area. A few important elements to note right now are the relatively thin ice on the Siberian side, the large extent of open water extending far to the north in the Barents Sea, and, more recently, the fragmentation of suposedly thicker ice in the Beaufort Sea (among other factors) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EU50hFrMA0) as presently visible in this Modis image rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?mosaic=ArcticActually, in situ measurements via stationary buoys on the Canadian side of the Arctic Sea (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm) indicate that the ice here is not nearly as thick as has been estimated by sources such as the US Navy, here; www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticict/nowcast/ict2012052218_2012052300_035_arcticict.001.gifRegarding my current assessment of the potential summer 2012 melt, I'm just looking at the current data, in the context of the past 30+ years, where I have been paying particular attention here over the more recent 3 or 4 melt seasons. Weather features such as the dipole anomaly could have a substantial negative effect on the ice if they occur as the melt season progresses. Also, direct warming via solar irradiation of open water, such as in the present polynya in the Beaufort Sea, as well as the ice free Barents Sea, will add heat to the system; regardless of the volume of ice export to the Greenland Sea. As has been observed in recent years, this heat results in in situ ice melting. Again, I'm just looking at the current data.
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