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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 1, 2013 7:29:55 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Jul 2, 2013 12:57:19 GMT
Looks like Kara has decided to join in the melt fest so only Beaufort to enter the fray now?
The images from the OBuoy duo ( 7 and 8 ) give us a glimpse of what is occuring there and it looks like the progged Beaufort High might not have to work too hard to lead to another rapid drop off?
Looking over at the edges of the pack on the Kara side of the Basin it looks like the 'slush Puppy' matrix does not last beyond being exposed to open water on 1 side? This does not bode well for the rest of such ice ( in the central region) now we have entered the high Arctic melt season?
It has been quite an interesting season so far? a lot of indications of how we should expect the pack to act these days as compared to what we used to be able to predict from the current run of cyclone,cloud and cool temps?
It would appear that the folk who were expecting to see good ice retention this season, due to 'favourable conditions', will need to rethink their understanding of the workings of the Basin come Sept?
A great learning opportunity for us all?
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 2, 2013 18:03:27 GMT
Yep it is graywolf.
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Post by icefisher on Jul 2, 2013 18:47:25 GMT
Looks like Kara has decided to join in the melt fest so only Beaufort to enter the fray now? Seems late that whole seas have still not decided to join in the melt fest since the sun elevated to its northern solstice almost 2 weeks ago and is now in the declining phase. It appears the melt continues to lag well behind recent years. When one considers the massive fragility of the ice shouldn't it be melting faster? If not why not?  Can you think of any possible reason other than more favorable climate conditions? More favorable environmental conditions seem supported by this:  The melt rate over the past 30 days is lower than 2012, 2011, 2010, and 2007 despite being much thinner than any of those years. Must be due to cold weather. The question is does it continue or does the weather warm and we begin to see a more normal melt. |
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Post by magellan on Jul 2, 2013 19:49:32 GMT
Looks like Kara has decided to join in the melt fest so only Beaufort to enter the fray now? The images from the OBuoy duo ( 7 and 8 ) give us a glimpse of what is occuring there and it looks like the progged Beaufort High might not have to work too hard to lead to another rapid drop off? Looking over at the edges of the pack on the Kara side of the Basin it looks like the 'slush Puppy' matrix does not last beyond being exposed to open water on 1 side? This does not bode well for the rest of such ice ( in the central region) now we have entered the high Arctic melt season? It has been quite an interesting season so far? a lot of indications of how we should expect the pack to act these days as compared to what we used to be able to predict from the current run of cyclone,cloud and cool temps? It would appear that the folk who were expecting to see good ice retention this season, due to 'favourable conditions', will need to rethink their understanding of the workings of the Basin come Sept? A great learning opportunity for us all? Keep counting angels on the head of a pin Graywolf. We've grown accustomed to the "science".   Winds, ocean currents and other weather events that skeptics have been saying all along are large factors in Arctic ice "melt" (2007 and 2012), is suddenly more important than temperature. Last year Greenland went above freezing for a few hours and the hype ensued. This year the silence is deafening. Temperature no longer matters.  |
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Post by graywolf on Jul 4, 2013 19:14:52 GMT
I , for one, think it a good thing that we have seen the 'pattern shift' away from the ridging that was allowing the type of melt we saw across Greenland last year?
I am sure the same is true also for the arctic basin and it's move away from the type of early season losses we have seen since 07'? Sadly the past 10 days has seen losses begin to ramp up again and allow 2013 to move closer to the high loss years?
When we look at the ice condition across the central basin wemust begin to wonder just how the matrix of ice rubble will stand up to the upcoming forecast flip back to 'melt friendly' conditions? We've seen the begining of heavy loss period as the land warmth impacted the coastal regions , now we will need see how the conditions interact with the well mangled central region?
What could turn out to be very interesting is the distribution of the remaining ice come early Aug? I feel sure that this will not closely resemble the Aug packsover the last 4 years or so and, should this be the case, the final phase of the melt season (with the bottom melt being dominant) may lead to higher losses than we normally see with more ice in the 'warmer' coastal areas and the 'safer' central region with far less ice?
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 4, 2013 20:55:09 GMT
This from the NSIDC:
A new normal for Arctic sea ice
July 2, 2013
Arctic sea ice continues to track below average but remains well above the levels seen last year. The relatively slow ice loss is a reflection of the prevailing temperature and wind patterns. As of July 1, NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis and the Sea Ice Index have transitioned to a new 30-year baseline period, 1981 to 2010.
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Post by graywolf on Jul 5, 2013 19:11:39 GMT
 Sure looks 'slow' to me??? There are 'cliffs' and there are 'Cliffs'.... |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 6, 2013 2:39:33 GMT
Looks like the melt in the Arctic is picking up.
The high pressure systems moving in are of interest; July will be an interesting month.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 6, 2013 3:22:59 GMT
Looks like the melt in the Arctic is picking up. The high pressure systems moving in are of interest; July will be an interesting month. I agree Thermostat. My 3.7 may be high as I stated previously. |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 6, 2013 3:32:27 GMT
Looks like the melt in the Arctic is picking up. The high pressure systems moving in are of interest; July will be an interesting month. I agree Thermostat. My 3.7 may be high as I stated previously. sigurdur, Given the slow start to this year's melt, I would not be suprised with relatively high final sea ice extent measure. What I find to be of most interest this year is the detailed coverage and interpretation of Arctic weather. |
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 6, 2013 4:15:51 GMT
The interpretation is very amusimg, don't you agree? Normal events now, according to a few climate "scientists", are so hilarious that even folks who do not read the literature are laughing at them.
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Post by neilhamp on Jul 6, 2013 6:07:03 GMT
Sigurdur, lets not forget your original metric was: www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htmThis does not seem to show quite such a large drop as Graywolf's choice of chart. The next three months will start to become very interesting 2.6 greywolf 3.0 or less Cuttydyer 3.1 birder 3.4 UK Met Office (September Mean) 3.5 steve, throttlup 3.7 karlox, sigurdur 3.85 Thermostat 3.97 Tamino 3.9 phydeaux, billee49 3.95 radiant 4.1 dontgetoutmuch, (ARCUS mean forecast for June) 4.25 hrizzo 4.3 FineWino 4.5 trbixler, neilhamp 4.9 zaphod 6.0 douglavers Tamino's forecast - published Open Mind - in November 2012 He states "I don’t expect 2013 to break the 2012 record." "I don’t expect the 2012 record to be broken until 2015 or 2016, and possibly even a few years later." |
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 7, 2013 5:24:26 GMT
Sure looks 'slow' to me??? There are 'cliffs' and there are 'Cliffs'.... I'm confused, is this a "cliffs" or a "cliffs...." situation?   |
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Post by neilhamp on Jul 7, 2013 7:32:27 GMT
I have clicked through all years on Artic temperatures shown above
I can't find any other year in the records when the temperatures are continually below normal for such an extended period
Hmm!
Lets wait and see what happens in September
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