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Post by sigurdur on Jul 22, 2013 23:25:28 GMT
The DMI temp graph is as good as it gets. It is much more detailed than GISS-temp and Hadcrut.
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Post by throttleup on Jul 23, 2013 0:26:11 GMT
"The data are based on model analysis data as you can read in the link to further information on the site." Most people seem to forget that the DMI Arctic temp is not a real measurement, but a product of a model of the Arctic into which the available sparse data are fed. The results reflect the fidelity of the model. Therefore, in an unforeseen behaviour of the Arctic, the results will likely be wrong. |
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 23, 2013 0:41:32 GMT
"The data are based on model analysis data as you can read in the link to further information on the site." Most people seem to forget that the DMI Arctic temp is not a real measurement, but a product of a model of the Arctic into which the available sparse data are fed. The results reflect the fidelity of the model. Therefore, in an unforeseen behaviour of the Arctic, the results will likely be wrong. When we observe an unforeseen behavior in the Arctic, then we can closely examine DMI. At this point and time there is nothing to indicate that what we are seeing is unforeseen, nor even out of the realm of normal conditions. |
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Jul 23, 2013 1:47:18 GMT
Thanks numerouno and sigurdur for the information. I wasn't looking in the obvious place on the page! Every bit of info
helps. I'll leave it to you guys to deal with the interpretation...
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Post by thermostat on Jul 23, 2013 2:43:12 GMT
Just a quick post, it looks like another summer cyclone is about to form in the Arctic, www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html click through the N Hem 500hPa,SLP links. As everyone recalls, last summer a similar weather event made a big impact. The impending storm is happening earlier this year, and appears to be likely to exert its strongest effects more toward the pole than last year. Undoubtably there will be discussion about this weather event, so heads up. |
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Post by icefisher on Jul 23, 2013 5:20:29 GMT
"The data are based on model analysis data as you can read in the link to further information on the site." Most people seem to forget that the DMI Arctic temp is not a real measurement, but a product of a model of the Arctic into which the available sparse data are fed. The results reflect the fidelity of the model. Therefore, in an unforeseen behaviour of the Arctic, the results will likely be wrong. Fact is numno every global temperature data set is a model. Surface records need to gridded and interpolated via a model truly using a sparse and unrepresentative data set. The most data rich of the datasets are the satellite data. DMI uses the ECMWF data for the arctic which is an ensemble of data for what ia allegedly the worlds largest weather forecasting system. It is currently the largest, the most data diverse (including satellite data) global climate data set in the world. If one wants to criticize DMIs data; one can criticize some of the older arctic means when data was sparse but since 2010 this data set and the satellite data sets are the gold standards for the world. |
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Post by graywolf on Jul 23, 2013 8:48:57 GMT
Hi Thermo!, I'd mentioned the upcoming storm and folk were a little 'down on me' for showing excitement at the prospect??? Just had a cracker of a storm here this a.m. and I was just as excited about it.....maybe some folk don't get an Englishman's relationship with 'the weather'?
Yes the fact that this storm is a couple of weeks early than last years GAC means a potential for a few more weeks melt of the tattered remnants after the storm has passed? With ice conditions being so poor ( did you see yesterdays image of the pole from Modis??? Slurpee or what???) the swells generated by the storm will have no issue running from Pacific side to Atlantic side ( unlike last year when the central ice dampened out the swell before it got over our side) giving the whole of that central slurpee mass a thorough washing? With so much ice rubble I cannot imagine anything other than a rapid loss of area from Friday onward.
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Post by Andrew on Jul 23, 2013 9:45:55 GMT
The realisation that the DMI data is based on model grids reminds me of the fools who for years have been telling me they could buy my house for substantially under the official NZ government valuation when the reality is it is going to sell for subtantially over the offical NZ government valuation even though we just had a 6.5 earthquake a few days ago. So many people and so much talk and so little reality. It is just the same on this board. Most of the people here are totally clueless about reality and live in some kind of alternate universe where there thoughts are imagined to decide reality. I had a surveyor here today for one of the offerers and he told me it is the same right the way thru government and planning where people have no clue about anything are making decisions on behalf of every one of us. After my experiences in getting my house ready for sell and going thru the process i am inclined to think there must be a way to make money out of being able to know about reality. For example being a valuer or surveyor. These people are like Gods. Me i cannot even get a graduate qualified accountant to understand school boy science or some half wit in Finland to understand that a 1970's diesel icebreaker is not 5 times bigger and nuclear powered.  |
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Post by numerouno on Jul 23, 2013 13:17:36 GMT
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Post by Andrew on Jul 23, 2013 13:25:40 GMT
The regular oscillation could be coincidence but it is just as likely to be some kind of human created error where they are adjusting values to correct for something or other. Fairly obviously they have created something enormously complicated and they have no way to properly test their results so whatever they produce will fit whatever they expect it to produce and will have all manner of corrections for when it does not. If the oscillations continue they will probably work out where their code or assumptions are wrong but if the data changes and their corrections no longer get applied they will assume it was just coincidence. It will also be difficult for them to admit it is wrong if that is the case, since Denmark has a significant financial crisis evolving and the risk of job losses must be fairly significant. |
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Post by numerouno on Jul 23, 2013 13:34:19 GMT
Iceskater, I really would insist you see a doctor. It's painful to witness your being ill here.
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Post by Andrew on Jul 23, 2013 15:10:07 GMT
Iceskater, I really would insist you see a doctor. It's painful to witness your being ill here. With a projector like that you should be running a cinema. All you can see is yourself. Everything is about you. You are number one. You obviously enjoy it so its not like its a bad choice. |
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Post by numerouno on Jul 23, 2013 15:14:42 GMT
Iceskater, I really would insist you see a doctor. It's painful to witness your being ill here. With a projector like that you should be running a cinema. All you can see is yourself. Everything is about you. You are number one. You obviously enjoy it so its not like its a bad choice. Tell the Doc your friends are worried about you. |
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Post by Andrew on Jul 23, 2013 15:31:21 GMT
With a projector like that you should be running a cinema. All you can see is yourself. Everything is about you. You are number one. You obviously enjoy it so its not like its a bad choice. Tell the Doc your friends are worried about you. Tell your doctor to change your medication. What is it with you and the paranoia anyway? Quite possibly it is a side effect. What does he give you? |
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Post by numerouno on Jul 23, 2013 15:38:38 GMT
Tell the Doc your friends are worried about you. Tell your doctor to change your medication. What is it with you and the paranoia anyway? Quite possibly it is a side effect. What does he give you? Have you personally experienced any signs of feeling somehow unwell on the mental side, or has your family noticed anything similar? I can see you are incoherent and rambling. This can be a dangerous sign, seriously. |
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