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Post by sigurdur on Jul 27, 2013 0:41:10 GMT
There are still areas of large concentrations on the Canadian Arctic Coast. This is somewhat late to still be there.
The normal re-supply should have started by now, but I can see it will be delayed because of this.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 27, 2013 0:45:53 GMT
We can see that the forecast for Resolute indicates a cooler than average bias for the next week. The upper midwest/and midwest of the USA and also the middle of Canada is currently much below average temps for highs and lows. Fargo has the potential to break the record low tonight for this date. The meandering jets are doing what they do...... weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html |
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Post by icefisher on Jul 27, 2013 2:03:28 GMT
Oh Ice fisher! Your graph misses out on 2013??? What will our current temp peak do to your hypothosis??? Is it just 'Weather' again? Meanwhile, back to the Arctic. Canadian ice service have introduced a new ice type "Decayed Ice"....just in time for the retirement of "Paleocryistic ice" ( not seen in the basin since 2011......and at least 10yrs away from it's reintroduction by it's very nature....). We know how 'Paleocryistic ice' dealt with minor summer cyclones but how does 'Decayed ice'  We're about to find out. Keep an eye on 'Area' over the next 5 days! Well it looks like temperatures have returned to normal, which we could expect to happen. Lately last few years we have seen more warmth in the atmosphere late in the melt season. But that doesn't tell us much beyond that the melt might be normal. Since below average temperatures have been explained by warmists as melting ice sucking the heat out of the atmosphere, maybe returning to normal means less ice is melting. Myself I figure normal temperature mean normal melt. Not too much into all those fancy explanations without some physical observations to support them. Of course wind is a variable that considered to be purely weather related (though there are a minority who think its climate related) and that will determine the final result. I really don't know any physics differences between "good ice" and "bad ice" so I have no views on that. Perhaps you could help us with some peer reviewed science on the matter so we could develop some views on this as you have. Not sure what temp peak you are talking about. |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 27, 2013 4:33:42 GMT
As the 2013 melt progresses, it is clear that temperatures in the Arctic have been low this season.
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Jul 28, 2013 12:24:58 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 28, 2013 13:54:29 GMT
zaphod:
The temperature is an anomaly based on the long term mean. What we can see is that it has been cool in the Arctic this summer. As far as the temp dip and the slow down of the ice melt, yes they are related.
The temp tho is so close to freezing that it actually has a minor role in the melt. The current and winds have the major role.
When looking at historical records, it does appear that we are very near the bottom of a long curve downward. In my humble opinion we will start seeing a bottom in regards to ice area in the next decade and then potentially a slow rise in summer ice lows.
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Jul 28, 2013 14:37:58 GMT
LOL Good Call icefisher  |
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Post by mkelter on Jul 28, 2013 18:33:32 GMT
Could it be the sun and aerosols? OK, so it's the land of the midnight sun--at least until September 24 according to the chart linked below:
Anthopolis guide to Arctic sunrise-sunset
That doesn't mean that the sun beats down on the North Pole from directly overhead. During the Summer Solstice, the sun is actually 23o 26' 15.143" above the horizon at the North Pole. That would be about the same angle of the sun in the sky at noon in Fargo, North Dakota (Latitude 46o 53'N) on Christmas Day.
Using basic trig and geometry and some data obtained from Wikipedia, I did some basic calculations to get an idea of how much troposphere energy from the sun must travel to reach the arctic surface at the pole (90oN) and at the 80oN latitude. The Wiki info is as follows:
Diameter of earth at equator: 7926.3 miles
Diameter of earth at poles: 7899.8 miles
Average thickness of troposphere at equator: 12 miles
Average summertime thickness of troposphere at poles: 4.3 miles
Based on my simple calculations I made the following table of straight-line distances through the troposphere at given angles of the sun relative to the North Pole. Distances are in units of miles:
| DATE | North Pole | 80ON | Tropic of Cancer | | Summer Solstice | 10.75 | 8.22 | 10.76 | | July 28 | 17.72 | 11.14 | 10.92 | | Autumn Equinox | 185.32 | 25.88 | 11.75 |
A lot can happen to UV radiation as it travels through various aerosols over various distances.
As of July 5, the sun began to set at the Arctic Circle (66o 33' 44"N). Today the sun is above the horizon for 19 hours, 25 minutes. On August 23, the sun will begin to set at the 80o N latitude. On September 24, lights are out at the North Pole. As we progress to the Autumn Equinox, shadows in the arctic get longer, implying that solar radiation will get increasingly filtered by atmospheric conditions.
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Post by Andrew on Jul 28, 2013 18:45:12 GMT
Could it be the sun and aerosols? OK, so it's the land of the midnight sun--at least until September 24 according to the chart linked below:
Anthopolis guide to Arctic sunrise-sunset
That doesn't mean that the sun beats down on the North Pole from directly overhead. During the Summer Solstice, the sun is actually 23o 26' 15.143" above the horizon at the North Pole. That would be about the same angle of the sun in the sky at noon in Fargo, North Dakota (Latitude 46o 53'N) on Christmas Day.
Using basic trig and geometry and some data obtained from Wikipedia, I did some basic calculations to get an idea of how much troposphere energy from the sun must travel to reach the arctic surface at the pole (90oN) and at the 80oN latitude. The Wiki info is as follows:
Diameter of earth at equator: 7926.3 miles
Diameter of earth at poles: 7899.8 miles
Average thickness of troposphere at equator: 12 miles
Average summertime thickness of troposphere at poles: 4.3 miles
Based on my simple calculations I made the following table of straight-line distances through the troposphere at given angles of the sun relative to the North Pole. Distances are in units of miles:
| DATE | North Pole | 80ON | Tropic of Cancer | | Summer Solstice | 10.75 | 8.22 | 10.76 | | July 28 | 17.72 | 11.14 | 10.92 | | Autumn Equinox | 185.32 | 25.88 | 11.75 |
A lot can happen to UV radiation as it travels through various aerosols over various distances.
As of July 5, the sun began to set at the Arctic Circle (66o 33' 44"N). Today the sun is above the horizon for 19 hours, 25 minutes. On August 23, the sun will begin to set at the 80o N latitude. On September 24, lights are out at the North Pole. As we progress to the Autumn Equinox, shadows in the arctic get longer, implying that solar radiation will get increasingly filtered by atmospheric conditions.
Mike Not sure what you mean by aerosols but even the changing composition of agriculture could have a big difference to the compostion of the materials in the lower atomosphere. What happens when the European Commission subsidises vast acreages of oil seed rape for example? All of those oils gums vapours and what not coming from plants could easily alter life on earth via GHE. However it would still amount to man made warming. And probably just irrigating countries makes much more difference via increasing water vapour over very dry areas - especially in the very low atmosphere near these areas, which must play a big role in heat retention by night and by day. For example Death Valley which used to be as dry as a bone is going to be warmer if you have tourists visiting it and a few farms popping up relatively near to take advantage of all that sun and heat. It must all add up one way or another? |
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Post by mkelter on Jul 28, 2013 19:25:35 GMT
Could it be the sun and aerosols?
Mike Not sure what you mean by aerosols but even the changing composition of agriculture could have a big difference to the compostion of the materials in the lower atomosphere. What happens when the European Commission subsidises vast acreages of oil seed rape for example? All of those oils gums vapours and what not coming from plants could easily alter life on earth via GHE. However it would still amount to man made warming. And probably just irrigating countries makes much more difference via increasing water vapour over very dry areas - especially in the very low atmosphere near these areas, which must play a big role in heat retention by night and by day. For example Death Valley which used to be as dry as a bone is going to be warmer if you have tourists visiting it and a few farms popping up relatively near to take advantage of all that sun and heat. It must all add up one way or another?
Clouds play an important atmospheric role both in terms of heat retention, AND in terms of UV reflection--a point often neglected in AGW modeling. My previous post has everything to do with the albedo qualities of tropospheric clouds, since larger cloud formations tend to reflect greater amounts of UV radiation as the zenith angle increases. As my simple chart demonstrated, the effects of changes in the zenith angle become extreme during this time of year, in terms of the potential of atmospheric interference with UV radiation over distance through the atmosphere.
Yes, irrigation (especially from groundwater sources) can play a role in cloud formation, as can CO2, galactic cosmic rays, etc. It would be a huge mistake to assume that cloud cover only traps heat through its GH qualities. Clouds also play an important role in protecting the planet from excess solar radiation.
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Post by trbixler on Jul 29, 2013 18:49:27 GMT
Where is that darned North Pole anyway! "Al Gore’s “Reality Minions” think the North Pole is melting – except that’s NOT a photo of the North Pole"   link |
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Post by mkelter on Jul 29, 2013 21:16:52 GMT
Where is that darned North Pole anyway! "Al Gore’s “Reality Minions” think the North Pole is melting – except that’s NOT a photo of the North Pole" I'm Melting. . .
 After it was discovered that somebody moved the north pole  I found some reader's comments on an alarmist website that postulated that the buoy actually floated in water to get where it was last week, thus proving that the polar ice field had completely melted.
Being the skeptic I am, I followed the link in the Wattsupwiththat article you linked above and found the deployment data for the Barneo instrument array (Linked Here). The instrument package was deployed on April 12, 2013 at N 89° 31? W 084° 42?. The air temperature was -27oC at the time of deployment. I doubt there was a whole lot of melting going on at the north pole on that day. The Arctic Sea-ice extent looked like this the day prior to deployment:
The day after deployment--April 13--the buoy location was recorded at N 89° 27' W 063° 43' and the temperature was -16oC. At those temperatures, nothing had melted, yet the buoy traveled 13 miles to the east.
Since deployment, the buoy has moved about 350 miles south, by the way the Flamingo flies--further if you track the meandering route.
I thought it was interesting.
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Post by trbixler on Jul 29, 2013 23:39:36 GMT
So now the Flamingo did it. Well I knew it all along but was hesitant to make a report as these things have national security implications.
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Post by mkelter on Jul 29, 2013 23:54:17 GMT
So now the Flamingo did it. Well I knew it all along but was hesitant to make a report as these things have national security implications. Call it a crude plug for Global Warming Somebody will swallow the kool-aid |
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Post by magellan on Jul 29, 2013 23:56:42 GMT
Houston, we have a problem.  Coldest Arctic summer since records began in 1958.  |
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We're about to find out. Keep an eye on 'Area' over the next 5 days!
I found some reader's comments on an alarmist website that postulated that the buoy actually floated in water to get where it was last week, thus proving that the polar ice field had completely melted.