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Post by nautonnier on Aug 10, 2013 17:01:54 GMT
Following up on the Arctic Weather report from the other day, first off, Iceskator, you have demonstrated quite convincingly by your comments that you are a total moron. I suggest that you get a clue; and good luck, bro. Meanwhile, reality continues to occur in the Arctic. That is reality, not ideology. What we are observing is sea ice behavour in an unusually cold summer. (See the chart in the post above). The weather pattern this summer has been unusually conducive to Arctic Sea Ice retention. For example, there has been next to no ice export via the Fram Strait, as persistent low pressure has dominated the Arctic. What is of interest to those who are actually curious, is what this summer is telling us about how the system works. ROFL Sorry - but read your posts up until July then to read this.... |
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Post by magellan on Aug 10, 2013 18:09:10 GMT
Following up on the Arctic Weather report from the other day, first off, Iceskator, you have demonstrated quite convincingly by your comments that you are a total moron. I suggest that you get a clue; and good luck, bro. Meanwhile, reality continues to occur in the Arctic. That is reality, not ideology. What we are observing is sea ice behavour in an unusually cold summer. (See the chart in the post above). The weather pattern this summer has been unusually conducive to Arctic Sea Ice retention. For example, there has been next to no ice export via the Fram Strait, as persistent low pressure has dominated the Arctic. What is of interest to those who are actually curious, is what this summer is telling us about how the system works. ROFL Sorry - but read your posts up until July then to read this.... Yes, it is fun to reminisce isn't it? is.gd/EhRv6MPIOMAS will have to be reprogrammed now that it is shown itself to be nothing more than computer generated bullshit. |
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Post by throttleup on Aug 10, 2013 18:10:34 GMT
Niels Bohr: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
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Post by throttleup on Aug 10, 2013 18:17:33 GMT
Perhaps the ice is speaking to us. If we only have the wisdom to listen.
WAIT! I hear it! It's saying something!
It's talking to Thermostat!
It's saying...
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Post by throttleup on Aug 10, 2013 18:27:10 GMT
Note: I believe STFU means "Stop Treating Folks Unfairly."
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Post by icefisher on Aug 11, 2013 11:50:18 GMT
Following up on the Arctic Weather report from the other day, first off, Iceskator, you have demonstrated quite convincingly by your comments that you are a total moron. I suggest that you get a clue; and good luck, bro. Meanwhile, reality continues to occur in the Arctic. That is reality, not ideology. What we are observing is sea ice behavour in an unusually cold summer. (See the chart in the post above). The weather pattern this summer has been unusually conducive to Arctic Sea Ice retention. For example, there has been next to no ice export via the Fram Strait, as persistent low pressure has dominated the Arctic. What is of interest to those who are actually curious, is what this summer is telling us about how the system works. While I can agree with you on some points, its also pretty clear that the extent that is represented by DMI as 30% or better ice is contesting with the best ice year since 2005. There is 1,200,000km less 30%+ ice than 15%+ ice. Simple math tells you that you could lose all the 15% to 29% concentration without the pack losing any extent. Ice is thicker this year, volume is up, its colder, and the weather patterns are actually serving to reduce extent by packing it up. 5,000,000 sq km low is clearly a reasonable target for a minimum. the pack has lost only 1mm sqkm in the last 19 days. Its at 6.3mm now. The summer is on track to end about 2 weeks early. Its only about 5 weeks to traditional minimum, its possible minimum could occur in the next 3 weeks, even in August. Plus 5mm looks like a real possibility, especially if the weather pattern reverses and starts expanding the compressed ice pack. beating 2007 looks like an almost sure thing. Ice loss would have to outstrip last year for the next 5 weeks to get to 2007. Of course that always was almost a sure thing as Gray Whale being consistently wrong is a lot stronger than the Gore Effect. |
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Post by woodstove on Aug 11, 2013 15:54:39 GMT
One thing I've learned is not to anticipate an early end to the melt season. Just sayin'.
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Post by magellan on Aug 11, 2013 23:16:26 GMT
One thing I've learned is not to anticipate an early end to the melt season. Just sayin'. That is true Harold, and one thing I've learned is not to underestimate the incompetence of scientists claiming to understand how the climate system works. |
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Post by thermostat on Aug 12, 2013 4:27:41 GMT
One thing I've learned is not to anticipate an early end to the melt season. Just sayin'. Interesting comment woodstove. Right now I'm figuring that Arctic Sea Ice Area this year will turn out to be much higher than recent years. From my perspective, 2013 shows that the behavior of the ice has not gone past the point where weather doesn't matter (sometimes called the tipping point). It was dang cold up there this summer, and the weather consistently had the effect of reducing the melt. Can this change 'late in the fourth quarter?' Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it. I would speculate that 2013 sea ice extent will end up around 5.5 to 5.0 sq km. That is not to say that the ice has abruptly 'recovered'. The ice will end up in a condition nothing like it used to be. It has lost a huge amount of volume that is not being replenished. And the heating of the Arctic has changed the weather. But, we will see. |
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 12, 2013 4:37:31 GMT
One thing I've learned is not to anticipate an early end to the melt season. Just sayin'. Interesting comment woodstove. Right now I'm figuring that Arctic Sea Ice Area this year will turn out to be much higher than recent years. From my perspective, 2013 shows that the behavior of the ice has not gone past the point where weather doesn't matter (sometimes called the tipping point). It was dang cold up there this summer, and the weather consistently had the effect of reducing the melt. Can this change 'late in the fourth quarter?' Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it. I would speculate that 2013 sea ice extent will end up around 5.5 to 5.0 sq km. That is not to say that the ice has abruptly 'recovered'. The ice will end up in a condition nothing like it used to be. It has lost a huge amount of volume that is not being replenished. And the heating of the Arctic has changed the weather. But, we will see. Thermo: Did u watch the video I posted ea rlier? |
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 12, 2013 4:37:45 GMT
One thing I've learned is not to anticipate an early end to the melt season. Just sayin'. Interesting comment woodstove. Right now I'm figuring that Arctic Sea Ice Area this year will turn out to be much higher than recent years. From my perspective, 2013 shows that the behavior of the ice has not gone past the point where weather doesn't matter (sometimes called the tipping point). It was dang cold up there this summer, and the weather consistently had the effect of reducing the melt. Can this change 'late in the fourth quarter?' Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it. I would speculate that 2013 sea ice extent will end up around 5.5 to 5.0 sq km. That is not to say that the ice has abruptly 'recovered'. The ice will end up in a condition nothing like it used to be. It has lost a huge amount of volume that is not being replenished. And the heating of the Arctic has changed the weather. But, we will see. Thermo: Did u watch the video I posted ea rlier? |
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Post by cuttydyer on Aug 12, 2013 10:31:12 GMT
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Post by woodstove on Aug 12, 2013 11:45:21 GMT
cuttydyer, thanks for the kind words. In terms of the mechanisms restricting ice melt this season, to the extent that they have anything to do with air temperature, a cool Arctic above 80N basically means an absence of overrunning air from southern latitudes. Pretty much every temp spike up there is simply a wind spike -- from the south. While warm sea water incursions probably matter significantly more than air temps when it comes to sea ice melt, air temps do for sure matter, too. As an example, maybe the best example: I don't believe that 2007's then-record melt could have taken place without a prolonged high-Arctic warming, wind-generated without doubt, during the first months of 2006.  So, sure there were other mechanisms at play during the summer of 2007 that even NASA admitted were simply weather. But a really important element of the causality for 2007's melt , according to me, Harold Ambler, was weather that happened more than a year before! That wintertime "heat wave," when I first noticed it, really grabbed my attention! It has never been written about by NSIDC or any other group as a component cause of 2007, so far as I can tell. But when you look at DMI's whole record, clicking through a year at a time, it is without precedent, specifically in its duration. And that "heat wave" has to have been caused by overruns of lower-latitude air masses. There's no other way that I'm aware of for such an event to take place. So, returning to 2013, a faster-than-average gyre, as you've got this summer, equals a buffer against warm overrunning air, equals bad news for the death spiral crowd. Good luck getting them to admit it, though. If I'm recapitulating stuff that everyone here has been saying forgive me, I haven't had time to read the whole thread. Wind aside, I do wonder whether the Arctic has emitted most of the "spare" heat it had to emit. On that front, only time will tell.
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Post by trbixler on Aug 12, 2013 23:43:10 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Aug 13, 2013 0:39:34 GMT
 Volume has increased by 2 years! Its never done that. In 2008 it increased above 2007 the only other time in the record where that happened. 2009 was also larger than 2007 but less than 2008. During that time warmists were focusing on how old the ice was. We had a new term coined, "paleocrystic ice" so we could have a term for a specie of ice being destroyed in the arctic to go along with the polar bear story. (obviously polar bears must prefer "old" ice where they can have their little cabins and seal eating kits stored safely away). This is just the pattern we should expect if the sun controls these changes. The deep minimum of 2008 (maybe aided by negative feedback from ice loss) created the increase in volume in 2008. This time we are at solar maximum and we have a volume increase 5 years later. Ocean momentum may be playing out and solar maximum is less than the average solar conditions for the past 260 years. What will next year bring? And 4 to 7 years from now with the next solar minimum? By then warming ocean momentum should be all below the thermocline and influencing a minor forcing with a stronger cooling momentum building in the upper ocean. Its now been 4 years since Trenberth called the lack of warming a travesty! Since CO2 has continued to increase it has to be a travesty squared by now! Doubt has to be creeping in keeping these guys awake at night.  Tstat is talking about Fram Strait. Thats clearly a weather variable for ice extent, but not so much for ice volume. Ice volume is going to be mostly a net forcing variable. . . .melt in place type variable. |
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