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Post by nonentropic on Dec 20, 2013 19:37:19 GMT
Another little issue is that every bottle that has been placed where a glacier advanced and engulfed the bottle is absent.
For the CAGW crowd the bottle type stories are great, only story or position agreeing outcomes.
The discussion about the massive warmth in the old USSR during November is much the same, 8C lift for month. Simple warning signs could be, is there a lot of snow there this year, or are papers talking about the extraordinary temperatures.
Where I live a summer was recently had where the average was 2C above norm and the papers were full of it. Little surprise when a 1C lift in temperatures is equivalent to 400km move towards the equator,(my estimate) and 8C is like a country change even in a massive place such as Russia. It could be that the language changes have made the papers difficult to read.
The glacial move being related to precipitation rather than climate temperature shift is just an example where there are two possibilities, they are lying, they are stupid, or both.
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Post by throttleup on Dec 20, 2013 23:40:21 GMT
Maybe Sig could put a message in a bottle in his back yard in mid-Summer. Then, he could check it in mid-Winter. If there's snow on it... Presto! CAGW debunked. Sig is famous. He gets a Noble Prize (as opposed to Nobel). The world is saved along with countless humans. They erect a statue of Sig on the mall in DC. T'stat and Numerouno attend.
--------------- This eggnog is good! I think I'll have another...
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 21, 2013 1:52:24 GMT
Maybe Sig could put a message in a bottle in his back yard in mid-Summer. Then, he could check it in mid-Winter. If there's snow on it... Presto! CAGW debunked. Sig is famous. He gets a Noble Prize (as opposed to Nobel). The world is saved along with countless humans. They erect a statue of Sig on the mall in DC. T'stat and Numerouno attend.
--------------- This eggnog is good! I think I'll have another...
Too damn cold to put a bottle in the back yard. Ok.......maybe I should drink it first? To warm up?
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Post by karlox on Jan 1, 2014 9:40:34 GMT
Amazing to see how Not only Iee but Even NH Snow extend by same date is alike, though current ice looks ´healthier´ and more compacted than 2007´s
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 4, 2014 9:58:19 GMT
Interesting Karlox. Similar? Yes, but different. I see a small black anomaly in the KARA sea, an ice free zone in 2007 but not in 2013, overall the ice is healthier in that region. However North of Svalbard the ice hasn't come down as far and doesn't touch the NW corner and in the sea of Okhotsk the ice is smaller. The interesting difference is the proximity of the Greenland ice sheet to Iceland. I wonder what happens to the thermohaline overturning circulation if that gap is closed?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 23, 2014 15:11:00 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 3, 2014 19:58:35 GMT
potentially worth the cash to read this paper in full. www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2071.htmlClimate change is amplified in the Arctic region. Arctic amplification has been found in past warm1 and glacial2 periods, as well as in historical observations3, 4 and climate model experiments5, 6. Feedback effects associated with temperature, water vapour and clouds have been suggested to contribute to amplified warming in the Arctic, but the surface albedo feedback—the increase in surface absorption of solar radiation when snow and ice retreat—is often cited as the main contributor7, 8, 9, 10. However, Arctic amplification is also found in models without changes in snow and ice cover11, 12. Here we analyse climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive to quantify the contributions of the various feedbacks. We find that in the simulations, the largest contribution to Arctic amplification comes from a temperature feedbacks: as the surface warms, more energy is radiated back to space in low latitudes, compared with the Arctic. This effect can be attributed to both the different vertical structure of the warming in high and low latitudes, and a smaller increase in emitted blackbody radiation per unit warming at colder temperatures. We find that the surface albedo feedback is the second main contributor to Arctic amplification and that other contributions are substantially smaller or even opposeArctic amplification.
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Post by graywolf on Feb 11, 2014 20:27:47 GMT
Ice not doing too well lately. CT area hit rock bottom today. with the average date for melt season to begin being March 15th it's not leaving us much time to pack in a little insurance ice in case we do see a rapid forming nino by Aug?
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 12, 2014 0:38:11 GMT
Ice not doing too well lately. CT area hit rock bottom today. with the average date for melt season to begin being March 15th it's not leaving us much time to pack in a little insurance ice in case we do see a rapid forming nino by Aug? I know the odds are we should see a Nino. IF we do, then yes, Arctic Ice will be low.
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Post by magellan on Feb 12, 2014 2:29:49 GMT
Ice not doing too well lately. CT area hit rock bottom today. with the average date for melt season to begin being March 15th it's not leaving us much time to pack in a little insurance ice in case we do see a rapid forming nino by Aug? Some clap trap, different year. We were told for decades that El Niño and La Niña were the result of, not the cause of temperature change. Is that another flip flop?
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 12, 2014 2:52:08 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Feb 16, 2014 20:14:25 GMT
weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gifThree points struck me from this picture. a) La Nina looks live & well - no sign of any warming in the Pacific off Peru b) There is a large cold anomaly South-West of the UK across a large part of the Atlantic. What's happened to the Gulf Stream or North Atlantic Drift?? c) Following on from that, the continuous [nearly] stream of large North Atlantic depressions spinning under a very active [and more or less] fixed position jet stream since the beginning if the year have clearly resulted in a very warm Scandinavia and much less Arctic Ice than normal in the Spitzbergen area. Looking at the pictures of Arctic Ice, this is where the "melting" [or low ice coverage] has been apparent.
Putting all this together, it looks to me like a large planetary cooling event is happening.
- Slowing Gulf Stream is very bad news for Europe, since terrawatts of heat are not reaching Europe or the Arctic Ocean. This might become apparent when Europe's climate starts to look Alaskan. - Really stormy Atlantic means maximum cloud cover and higher planetary albedo. - Large ice free area in Arctic at a time of total darkness means planetary heat is being lost really fast.
None of this is good news.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 16, 2014 21:00:18 GMT
weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gifThree points struck me from this picture. a) La Nina looks live & well - no sign of any warming in the Pacific off Peru b) There is a large cold anomaly South-West of the UK across a large part of the Atlantic. What's happened to the Gulf Stream or North Atlantic Drift?? c) Following on from that, the continuous [nearly] stream of large North Atlantic depressions spinning under a very active [and more or less] fixed position jet stream since the beginning if the year have clearly resulted in a very warm Scandinavia and much less Arctic Ice than normal in the Spitzbergen area. Looking at the pictures of Arctic Ice, this is where the "melting" [or low ice coverage] has been apparent.
Putting all this together, it looks to me like a large planetary cooling event is happening.
- Slowing Gulf Stream is very bad news for Europe, since terrawatts of heat are not reaching Europe or the Arctic Ocean. This might become apparent when Europe's climate starts to look Alaskan. - Really stormy Atlantic means maximum cloud cover and higher planetary albedo. - Large ice free area in Arctic at a time of total darkness means planetary heat is being lost really fast.
None of this is good news.
I agree with everything you have stated Doug, with one potential exception. The cloudiness as a result of the storms might be more on the neutral side as the radiation absorbed in this area is still in winter mode.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 16, 2014 21:07:49 GMT
weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gifThree points struck me from this picture. a) La Nina looks live & well - no sign of any warming in the Pacific off Peru b) There is a large cold anomaly South-West of the UK across a large part of the Atlantic. What's happened to the Gulf Stream or North Atlantic Drift?? c) Following on from that, the continuous [nearly] stream of large North Atlantic depressions spinning under a very active [and more or less] fixed position jet stream since the beginning if the year have clearly resulted in a very warm Scandinavia and much less Arctic Ice than normal in the Spitzbergen area. Looking at the pictures of Arctic Ice, this is where the "melting" [or low ice coverage] has been apparent.
Putting all this together, it looks to me like a large planetary cooling event is happening.
- Slowing Gulf Stream is very bad news for Europe, since terrawatts of heat are not reaching Europe or the Arctic Ocean. This might become apparent when Europe's climate starts to look Alaskan. - Really stormy Atlantic means maximum cloud cover and higher planetary albedo. - Large ice free area in Arctic at a time of total darkness means planetary heat is being lost really fast.
None of this is good news.
You will also note that down at the Antarctic - just coming out of summer - there are also large negative anomalies especially around Tierra del Fuego and the supposedly 'warming' Antarctic peninsula. A large part of the South Pacific and South Atlantic oceans are far colder than normal. This taken together with your observation on the North Atlantic Drift would imply that the thermohaline circulation may be altered in some way. A post by E.M. Smith on Musings from the Chiefio "It’s a simple thing. There are these maps. They say where the ocean water wanders. Authoritative. Well reasoned. Based on the best science. Centuries of observations and wisdom. One Small Problem: They have arrows going in the same places on some maps, different directions on others." points out that we actually don't know a lot about what the ocean currents are doing. There are interacting Rossby waves in these ocean currents with wavelengths in the hundreds of kilometers yet moving at 10 - 30 cm/sec, there are LOD effects and complex tidal effects from Sun and Moon. Perhaps our understanding of what is going on is far too simplistic. These currents govern our climate but seem to be an unknown unknown which is glibly assumed to be deterministic and fixed as it was mapped in the 1940's.
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Post by douglavers on Feb 16, 2014 21:27:53 GMT
Sigurdur
Following your comment, I think the Atlantic storm fronts actually covered quite a large area at the latitude of Spain, which would have enjoyed longer daylight. I had not considered the impact of long hours of darkness in winter further North.
If this weather pattern persists into Spring/Summer ..............................
BTW The North Atlantic Drift "diving" much further South would provide a possible mechanism for burying surface heat at abyssal depths.
I wonder about the evaporative effects these continuous Atlantic storms might be creating. This would rapidly cool the surface. All the rain hitting Europe has to have come from somewhere.
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