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Post by sigurdur on Feb 16, 2014 22:12:40 GMT
Sigurdur Following your comment, I think the Atlantic storm fronts actually covered quite a large area at the latitude of Spain, which would have enjoyed longer daylight. I had not considered the impact of long hours of darkness in winter further North. If this weather pattern persists into Spring/Summer .............................. BTW The North Atlantic Drift "diving" much further South would provide a possible mechanism for burying surface heat at abyssal depths. I wonder about the evaporative effects these continuous Atlantic storms might be creating. This would rapidly cool the surface. All the rain hitting Europe has to have come from somewhere. Doug: I hadn't thought about the radiative transfer via evaporation. This alone would displace a lot of heat, and add it to the atmosphere to be exported. One thing that I am certain about, the current warmth at the North Pole area is like having a huge sucking sound in regards to heat leaving. The strat is so low, trop so thin, water vapor hot high, that this is like having both doors open on a barn. Looking back at that Butter thing I posted some time ago telling us about past climate events, I feel more certain than ever that the sun cycle is doing a lot more in ref to climate than I had thought. Thanks for the food for thought. This is getting more interesting all the time!
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 16, 2014 22:17:02 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 16, 2014 22:19:42 GMT
I posted a link to an upload I had of SST's from a year ago a little bit ago.
The current change in pattern is showing an intensifying of the cold PDO.
One are of interest that I will have to dig for tho, is the large area of warm water just on the East Coast of Brazil right now. A year ago it was well east and was two pools, today is is one large pool.
Anyone have any ideas as to cause/effect?
Also, near Svalgard, the water continues to warm. And any warmth that far north....is going to leave the planet at this time of year.
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Post by douglavers on Mar 26, 2014 19:35:43 GMT
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Post by karlox on Mar 27, 2014 9:02:11 GMT
This large cold water pool is coincident throughout this winter with where recurrent "explosive cyclogenesis" (galerns) have been stubbornly developping heading to UK, France and eventually further South... Record wawes and tides affecting western European shores week after week...
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Post by karlox on Mar 27, 2014 9:06:25 GMT
By the way... 1- can´t see any hint of EL NIÑO here... Could you? 2- also notice that large cold water area from western Africa between Gibraltar and the equator!!
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Post by graywolf on Mar 27, 2014 12:19:24 GMT
Karlox, the data is out there for you to see just where the Kelvin wave , with temps 6c above average is right now. Also I'd suggest using more than one sst global image map and 'average' out what you see? BOM are now looking to see if we are beginning to see the atmospheric/ocean coupling that will drive a major Nino. don't be the last one on the block to see this event evolving!
Sea ice has maxed ( March 20th?) and the ice is in horrid condition at the start of the melt season. with the 4 month lag of Nino it's influence would only appear in late season but warm air intrusions over Aug/Sept could drive more of the 2012 type deep depressions to disrupt or ship out the late season ice.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 27, 2014 13:28:14 GMT
Karlox: Look at the equator. Note that the normal plume of cool water that extends along the equator is now virtually non-existent.
There is not a plume of warm water yet, and yes, it may not occur.
But as Graywolf notes, the Kelvin wave is migrating east, and it is a very warm wave. Can it disperse before it gets to the west coast of SA? Yes, depending on atmospheric conditions. The SOI has been negative for the past month, which is indicative of a potential El Nino.
I was in the not seeing it camp, and am in the now, yes, it might happen camp. Do I think this is going to be a strong event? Not at this time, but I am actually hoping it is.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Mar 27, 2014 17:38:59 GMT
Karlox, the data is out there for you to see just where the Kelvin wave , with temps 6c above average is right now. Also I'd suggest using more than one sst global image map and 'average' out what you see? BOM are now looking to see if we are beginning to see the atmospheric/ocean coupling that will drive a major Nino. don't be the last one on the block to see this event evolving! Sea ice has maxed ( March 20th?) and the ice is in horrid condition at the start of the melt season. with the 4 month lag of Nino it's influence would only appear in late season but warm air intrusions over Aug/Sept could drive more of the 2012 type deep depressions to disrupt or ship out the late season ice. Care to explain your epic fail of predicting the Arctic sea ice minimum last season before I start to believe your dire, but gleeful, predictions for this year?
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Post by flearider on Mar 27, 2014 18:07:56 GMT
between Australia and s/a you have a lot of cold ocean .. that has been cooled by the antartic melt .. i'll go with nina or neut ..
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Post by douglavers on Apr 8, 2014 20:31:11 GMT
ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.phpThe terawatt-months of heat which have hidden themselves in the deep ocean and avoided entering the Arctic front-door North of Norway are possibly now making their absence felt. Arctic temperatures are back to "normal". The persistent cold spot in the mid Atlantic suggests to me that the North Atlantic Drift [aka Gulf Stream] really has weakened significantly. weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gifI would recommend that Europe invests heavily in upgrading fuel supplies, insulation and snow ploughs if this pattern persists through Summer.
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Post by flearider on Apr 8, 2014 22:11:16 GMT
now call me a quirk .. but those cold spots off japan and newfoundland I believe have come from the Antarctic melt .. with the sun starting to be cooler .. and a massive Antarctic and then a melt you've had normal upwelling and this has carried on being pushed back down .. and then rising again .. this would also account for a weaker gulf stream .. and if my thoughts are even near what I think .. it will have a very big future effect .. but theres loads more out there with better brains than me so have a think about it ..
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Post by douglavers on Apr 8, 2014 23:01:48 GMT
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Post by flearider on Apr 9, 2014 8:49:09 GMT
because of the larger ice area you have a colder melt ..and a bigger push it normally upwells near peru and Nigeria ..which it did but because of the weak equatorial current .I believe it wasn't all upwelled and carried on ..then following the northen hemisphere currents
you can see the nice long melt on your graph ..
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Post by douglavers on Apr 12, 2014 21:39:00 GMT
I don't suppose the following graphs will be given much attention by the media, but they should be: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/iphone/images/iphone.anomaly.global.pngarctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.pngarctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.pngIn other words, Arctic Ice slightly below normal, Antarctic Ice, far above normal and growing at record [since measurements began] rate. In fact the Antarctic graph is quite surprising. At the moment, the anomaly is twice as large as at the same time last year from visual inspection, and last year the ice plumbed new heights, to mix my metaphors. Net effect, polar ice total well above normal. Incidentally, the graph below is also interesting: ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.phpHaving spent most of the [Northern Hemisphere] winter above normal, Arctic temperatures have slid below normal. I think what matters from the point of view of Arctic melt is the time the Arctic spends near or above freezing. A small depression in average Arctic temperature will considerably reduce that time.
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