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Post by woodstove on Aug 15, 2012 14:39:59 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 19, 2012 21:46:54 GMT
There are times when I would prefer not to be correct. Throughout recorded history, famine has been the reason for civil unrest and the overthrow of governments. It now looks like we are going to see history repeat itself. "US drought could spur civil unrest around the world" "As prices rise, tempers fray. The US drought has pushed up global food prices and is likely to continue to do so. Some say riots and unrest may follow."www.newscientist.com/article/dn22191-us-drought-could-spur-civil-unrest-around-the-world.htmlIt is a little unfair to blame this all on the USA after all harvests have failed in the entire Northern Hemisphere. However, the USA and Europe are the only major blocks that are mandating food to be turned into fuel. I wonder how these people can look at themselves in the mirror - perhaps a fattening wallet eases the conscience even of children dying from the profiteering.
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Post by AstroMet on Aug 19, 2012 22:39:27 GMT
There are times when I would prefer not to be correct. Throughout recorded history, famine has been the reason for civil unrest and the overthrow of governments. It now looks like we are going to see history repeat itself. "US drought could spur civil unrest around the world" "As prices rise, tempers fray. The US drought has pushed up global food prices and is likely to continue to do so. Some say riots and unrest may follow."www.newscientist.com/article/dn22191-us-drought-could-spur-civil-unrest-around-the-world.htmlIt is a little unfair to blame this all on the USA after all harvests have failed in the entire Northern Hemisphere. However, the USA and Europe are the only major blocks that are mandating food to be turned into fuel. I wonder how these people can look at themselves in the mirror - perhaps a fattening wallet eases the conscience even of children dying from the profiteering. It's what I forecasted elsewhere. Moreover the mix of weak economic fundamentals, drought, famine, and high food prices are a very explosive geopolitical mix as history as proven repeatedly. By the time they completely stop turning food into fuel, it will already be too late since food stocks in the U.S. are low with corn prices rising. Yields this year for harvest are threatened with the record crops farmers put into the ground earlier this year, so the higher food prices - across the board when it comes to the many applications of corn - will see social unrest. Nautonnier is simply telling it as it is. He's correct.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 23, 2012 3:28:33 GMT
Naut correct?
Yes and no. The reduction in DDG's, the by-product of making ethanol is causing a feed shortage.
Crazy how this works, but DDG is a better feed than whole corn. So the actual cost of feed is rising because the production of DDG is falling.
This whole equation is not quite as cut and dried as some would like to present.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 27, 2012 10:09:46 GMT
Sig, The question should be if there was no corn to ethanol market, what would the farmers be producing?
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 27, 2012 16:29:31 GMT
nautonnier: They would be producing a lot less corn that is for sure.
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Post by codetalker on Sept 7, 2012 1:16:31 GMT
Theo: When will you make available your Winter forecast? I'm particularly interested in the PNW and in Canada BC/AB with particular interest in the mountains. I ski. Thank you.
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 23, 2012 1:01:26 GMT
Theo: When will you make available your Winter forecast? I'm particularly interested in the PNW and in Canada BC/AB with particular interest in the mountains. I ski. Thank you. I will have a public forecast out this October for Winter/Spring 2013. If I am able to cover the pacific northwest and Canada I will add what I see for snow this winter in the overall forecast for North America. I hope it helps you.
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Post by neilhamp on Sept 23, 2012 7:20:20 GMT
Where do you publish these forecasts Astromet? Do you have your own web page or must we await publication on this list I travel to USA over Christmas and the New Year and want to know the likelyhood of snow on the East Coast
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Post by codetalker on Sept 23, 2012 16:17:16 GMT
Theo: Thanks so much. I understand the work, so I say, that goes into a forecast so any info would be greatly appreciated. If you can't, because of time, I still will be happy to see your general forecast for the West Coast. As you know the entire West Coast has been affected by a weird Jet Stream the last couple winters. Here's a quote from a professor at the University of Washington about the weather last January. "The answer is that the typical La Nina circulation has not set up consistently so far this winter. Why is that? I can't tell you and I am not sure anyone can." He went on to say next winter (2013) looked to be a neutral year and "Although infrequent, the biggest and baddest storms occur in neutral years." One can ponder.
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Post by icefisher on Sept 23, 2012 16:24:31 GMT
Naut correct? Yes and no. The reduction in DDG's, the by-product of making ethanol is causing a feed shortage. Crazy how this works, but DDG is a better feed than whole corn. So the actual cost of feed is rising because the production of DDG is falling. This whole equation is not quite as cut and dried as some would like to present. You are correct about that. Fact is we need food more than cars and we subsidized GM. Farm price supports have been an integral part of government policy for a long time designed to stabilize the farm business model. Fact is if the farmer fails we all fail. Very clearly any changes need to be carefully considered so as to not trigger a cascading effect. Its not an easy equation. Food prices have been going up robustly and people are concerned much of it is politically driven by inadvisable government policies regarding global warming. Fuel prices have always been volatile. Gas prices in constant dollars is not much different than where it has been in the past. However, back in that day government was working rationally to fill the void and contain energy inflation, not by diverting food to fuel but by finding more fuel. This DDG issue I suspect is like taking vitamin supplements to help compensate for the bags of potato chips one is devouring. Obviously if DDG is a byproduct that means the fuel is being removed and the fuel is replaced in the feed industry by a less nutritious cheaper fuel fortified by DDG. So what are the issues regarding the production of this mysterious other half of the feed source? Are they harvesting tumbleweed or something (I am not sure I really want to know!) and feeding it livestock fortified by DDG? Sort of makes me feel bit uneasy with the government operating a lot like Frito-lay. . . .whats next? Soylent Green?
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Post by nonentropic on Sept 23, 2012 19:08:51 GMT
There is little evidence that farm support stops farms producing food in downturns.
What they do is reduce the production of food around the world on the best land for the best price.
They are subsidies to groups with the ear of government. no different to the processes employed by bankers to rape the people of the world. They perpetuate global madness and are functionally the tipping point for budget deficits.
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 23, 2012 20:39:48 GMT
Farm Program and what it does.
1. The purpose of the farm program is to provide cheap food for the masses. In the USA, it has been hugely successful. We spend less disposable income on food than any other nation in the world.
2. DDG. What DDG is is a very digestable source of protien. DDG's in the feed ratio actually cheapen the price of milk because the cost per cwt of milk is less using this very potent feed. As far as the carb, which is taken out of the corn and used to create the ethanol, carbs are cheap and plentiful. That is why the price of soymeal has risen so fast. Remove the DDG's, which are cheaper, with soymeal in the ration and the bottom cost curve has risen. The result will be increased food costs. Ethanol is really a very very good deal when one considers the total economic impacts.
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 23, 2012 20:46:42 GMT
The mistake made by our Fed Govt concerning food stocks was that they did away with the reserve program. This program was important as it leveled the supply field.
As a farmer, I was glad to see it gone. This allowed more market volatility so also allowed a better profit potential.
As a human being, I was quit sad to see it eliminated. Personally, being I am a farmer, I do not want human food needs to be unobtainable for humans. I am rich in that I have a most wonderful wife, two beautiful daughters. I am also blessed with two of the most wonderful Grandchildren that you could ever want.
I only desire to be able to meet my operating costs, feed my family and have some semblence of a life. Capital requirements in ag have risen so fast, and are now so huge, that one does need to have some wealth to operate.
Remember, Ag is still considered the riskiest business that you can be involved in. Banks will lend some fool money to buy a house, but when it comes to Ag, they want a fairly large net worth....or no operating loan. Risk again is the reason.
Food is still so cheap that folks frequent the eating establishments at a high number. I still can't figure this one out, as I just have a really hard time spending $20.00 on a steak etc......when I can cook one at home for less than $3.00. And 99% of the time mine is a whole lot better than that one at the eating establishment.
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Post by graywolf on Sept 24, 2012 14:48:32 GMT
Though things are a bit more expensive in the UK the size and type (and cooking) of the steak at home compared to 'out' means you can feed at least 3 for the price of one meal out?
I know there are overheads but it's the same for the butcher who I can buy my 2kg of steak from (as opposed to a 10oz at the restaurant) so what of the poor farmer at the beginning of the chain??? Maybe if I could take my own steak and wine I'd be able to afford to go out more???
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