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Post by sigurdur on Jul 27, 2015 15:08:18 GMT
She has demonstrated for years that she IS a loon. This only further demonstrates the trend has not changed.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 27, 2015 17:52:51 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 29, 2015 1:10:35 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 29, 2015 2:42:54 GMT
If I wanted America to fail I would use the Chinese market as a model. In a desperate attempt to stop the selloff many Chinese companies simply halted the trading of their stock and then the government followed by issuing stops on short selling. For me the most disturbing bit of info came from a Bloomberg interview shortly after the the Chinese market lost 8.5% on Monday. It seems the Chinese people are in disbelief that the Government could allow this to happen. Imagine the nerve of the Chinese Government to allow this so called "free market" to lose 8.5% in one day. This does not end well for China or the Worldwide economy. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-08/china-trade-halts-hit-2-2-trillion-as-state-intervention-fails
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 29, 2015 2:54:51 GMT
"Rant Continued"
The more I think about it the more it infuriates me. If only Hoover would have forbidden short selling in 1929 my father and millions of others would not have had to endure The Great Depression. It's that simple. Just outlaw selloffs and Bear Markets.
Thats what the Chinese Government is trying to do.
Just what is a Yuan worth and would you buy one?
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Post by walnut on Jul 29, 2015 3:42:44 GMT
I am still not a believer on the relative power of the Chinese market to affect us. Our market might be about to roll over, but it is long overdue for a big correction and it will not be because of the Chinese stock market. But the Chinese market could be the catalyst, yes I'll admit that.
They hold lots of our bonds, but they are not our landlords. They cannot "call" the bonds, they cannot dictate anything to us. All they could do is dump their bonds on the market, which would not be in their best interests for a couple of reasons. So they won't, unless the dollar finally comes down pretty hard. The world still keeps score with the US dollar, and despite all the big talk against it, the dollar has been very strong since 2009.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 29, 2015 4:02:35 GMT
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Post by walnut on Jul 29, 2015 4:08:57 GMT
I was feeling really bearish this morning. I found a quite nifty options spread that I am anxious to try, but the market volatility has it jacked up and I want a lower price. It is a rain or shine "synthetic" security haha
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Post by Ratty on Jul 29, 2015 6:19:59 GMT
I was feeling really bearish this morning. I found a quite nifty options spread that I am anxious to try, but the market volatility has it jacked up and I want a lower price. It is a rain or shine "synthetic" security haha Maybe you'll get a "synthetic" profit? PS: Have I said before how I hate derivatives?
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Post by walnut on Jul 29, 2015 12:42:46 GMT
If used right for your own account, and not un-ethically sold to people who don't understand them, they can be the greatest thing. The idea is to exploit inefficiencies in the market, and not rely on market timing or directional guessing, is good. May or may not work, that's on you.
I don't "invest" with my little account to foster the US economy or anything lofty like that, I am just trying to make some money.
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Post by walnut on Jul 29, 2015 13:26:32 GMT
Higher i rates are not truly baked into this market. I don't think it will go well. Big correction coming later
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Post by duwayne on Jul 29, 2015 15:35:54 GMT
Could higher interest rates help the economy? Consumer spending is in the doldrums partly because savers have been savaged by zero interest rates. For example, a retiree or near retiree with a $1,000,000 nest egg in “safe” investments is receiving little or no income. His inclination is to cut back spending to the bone and try to increase his savings so it lasts over his lifetime. At $50,000 per year, his nest egg is gone in 20 years. On the other hand at the 5% interest rate of the 1990’s, he would be making $50,000 a year on his nest egg and might well spend most or all of it on himself and others because he doesn’t see a need to save more.
Japan, a one-time thriving economy has decimated the incomes of the older members of their aging population and it has been in the doldrums for a long time.
If the older population has most of the savings and you want to increase consumer spending what would you do?
But what about the negative effect of higher interest rates on the younger population? Perhaps the effect may not be negative. More consumer spending means more jobs. More demand for workers means higher pay. This helps the younger population. Remember the way it used to be?
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 29, 2015 17:34:25 GMT
duwayne: The Super large whale in the room is how much money the Fed Govt owes. An interest rate of 5% would add 1 TRILLION to the budget. We can't service the interest now, imagine if debt increased 2 trillion a year rather than the 1 trillion it is doing now.
It would totally kill the economy, which is in serious flux right now.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 29, 2015 18:18:48 GMT
Sigurdur, I put Harry Dent in the same group of permabears with Porter Stansberry and Peter Schiff. All 3 have been preaching "the end is near" since 2008. While I think China is in clear and present danger I don't think our economy is near the brink. With that being said all three of them are going to be right again. At some point...
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 29, 2015 18:31:11 GMT
Duwayne,
I just "invested" in an 18 month CD. The rate is a whopping .25%. The penalty for early withdrawal? 1%. My only incentive for doing so was to have an emergency fund that was far enough out of reach but yet liquid enough to grab should I lose my job in the oilfield. (I love my wife but saving is not one of her strong suits).
The current FED policy is punishing savers. There is little or no return in anything else outside of real estate.
And I agree with sigurdur. The FED can't raise rates (much) or they wont be able to service the debt. I see us locked in a continued cycle of stagnation for the foreseeable future.
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